What will the new year bring for prices

[vvalk]

Just wanting to see what everyone's thoughts are on what we will see for prices for canola,beans corn and wheat. Starting JFM, spring and new crop. Interesting to see how many optimistic bin lockers are out there vs sell it all.

[dalek]

Don't think we'll see a return of last year but there should be some decent opportunities. As for me, as of Jan 08 I've got about 80% of my expected crops of soft red winter sold for 2009 and 2010, 2009 at an average of about $6.30/bushel and 2010 at $6.70. Local price right now is running right around $4.00. No wheat in storage, I wouldn't be surprised if we see some local spikes up to about $5.00.

Got about 40% of my 2009 corn sold as of last July for $5.60/bushel, running about $4.70 here now. Still got 220 tonnes in storage and 75 acres in the field, probably sell it in the next 6 weeks.

50-60% each of 2009 and 2010 soybeans sold in late July, 2009 at $11.40 and 2010 at $12.20. Still sitting on a little bit of 08 beans, thinking on selling them next week.

[TOM4CWB]

vvalk;

VOLITILITY.

[SASKFARMER3]

dalek your in Ontario or Quebec?

[SASKFARMER3]

09 will bring better opportunities than 08 did.

I said we would bounce, were're bouncing. Still looking for another 10-15% in the grains before I'm pricing the rest of my crop, wouldn't be touching new crop sales, as the 09-10 crop will be crazy.

After this bounce it's more than likely going to get ugly.

But once that hyper-inflation starts.........hang on to your hats boys she's going to be a wild ride!!!

[vvalk]

snappy. You targeting $450 on nearby canola to sell the rest of your old crop?

[lesm]

I was listening to an economist about a month ago. He was asked to predict the TSX idex for December 31st/08. He replied that he is 100% sure that the market will either go up or down. I'm in the same frame of mind in this commodity business.I'm hoping for a lot better prices but preparing for the worst. First time in thirty-four years of farming that I have not prepaid directly for any of my 2009 inputs. Been busy pricing glysofate in the event that we have to summerfallow our six thousand acre farm.

[dalek]

Ontario saskfarmer.

Keep in mind that if prices DO go through the ceiling again, it'll be strictly because I contracted so much production ahead, and you're all welcome to send me a small gratuity when you sell your own crops.

[cottonpicken]

Looks like a solid bottom for canola.

38% retracement gives us 483,punching through the 450 will be the challenge,after those numbers its straight to 525,we are in trouble if we stay below 400ish for any length of time.

[cottonpicken]

"MAXIMUM" high water mark from here 1480.

[cottonpicken]

vvalk, that is what I'm doing with my old crop. Pretty confident $450 will happen before end of Jan.

[classicalliberal]

Dalek, I think more producers should be as proactive at forward contracting at reasonalbe profit levels based on average yields. That is what I try to do. There was a problem last year when no end user would price canola or soybeans more than 30 days so I just sold some futures to lock in those levels. This game is about growing the best crop possible and locking in profitable levels when they are available.

[classicalliberal]

Be ready to sell when it hits your numbers and not try to get last years prices because I just can't see them get to where they were.

[dave4441]

I agree, but pretty amazing charts on corn/Soy and wheat in the US markets over the last 10 days. Corn up 33% from it's low. I am not a technical trader, but is that all this rally is based on, or is their fundamental reasons for all these markets to be moving ahead like this? Year end buying to flatten positions or what?

[dalek]

Classicalliberal I should point out that I believe the elevators here were only contracting 2010 soybeans for about 3 days last summer before they backed out of them again, I got in on the second day. I don't know that they ever contracted 2010 corn once it got over about $5 and there were lots of days near the peak of the market where they weren't contracting 2009 corn or beans either.

Still, I'm reasonably happy, particularly now that I have a maximum price contract on my diesel out through June.