Agrium is still playing games , they won't give dealers a spring delivery price for anhydrous. Urea is in the 600 dollar range. Big time game of chicken.
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I think the time to buy was Dec 17th. That was the last day of confusion amoungst the fert dealers. We paid $.43/lb for 46-0-0 that day and are taking delivery starting Jan 2 - via spreader(loral) for $5/ac. I hope it does not snow too much over the next few days.
Just like the grain/oilseed high, the fert low did not last long.
Local bids are back up to $525/tn now. (46). jmo
Class/lib - there is one glaring thing that alot of people seem to miss - there was never a fert shortage and their was a grain and oilseed shortage.
Also a very small portion of canola was sold at lofty levels. A huge amount of fert will/has been purchased at overinflated prices. Just look at the world fert prices over the past six months and compare north american prices. We were simply getting screwed without any real justification.
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Yea last year was the great one (that I said all along 07 crop sold in 08 will be the best price in 10 years) and yes canola went at very good price. This year like most of rest of you, we pre priced some and have some very decent basis levels for march and June (Just in Case). The bin buster wasn't on every ones farm boys just a few certain areas had a really really really huge canola crops.
Fert today is 46-0-0 $400 pay today or by end of January take delivery any time till end of January.
Now anhydrous is a different game all together. Yes were set up for using gas and have for a very long time but paying .56 cents a lb on a limited tonnage when 46 is available it starting to look like might have to go back to double shoot system.
Savings would be around $103,000.00 next year. Different drill cash price is $103,000.00 triple tank double shoot. Three of us in office today two went home with 46 instead of anhydrous. Two were able to change over. We could on our existing drill for $12,000.00.
Simply no one from Regina all way to Kamsack today would give a confirmed price on Anhydrous. All singing on same song sheet. This is first time ever could not get confirmed price at New Year. Phos 800 down and 20-0-0-24 400 ton.
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What would you rather have? a -20 basis at $8 canola or a -60 basis at $15? Basis is irrelevant to the farmer for risk management purposes unless he has a futures position that he exchanges with the buyer to price that basis. Otherwise, to lock in a good basis, which is usually when prices are not good and when farmers are not moving grain is a totally speculative move. That is why target orders for all delivery periods will be executed for those short-time frames that the prices are high in all delivery periods.
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I don't need the volume SF3.
What we all need here is for you to stop sprerading your bull sh%^!!!!!
I knew you were lying about your 400/ton 46 so I called you on it!! If you have your fellow farmers best intrest at heart, wouldn't you want them to get a good deal also?? So what's the name of the dealer??
Also you sold all your 07 production of Canola between $14-16 dollars?? You want me to start digging up old posts from a year ago when you said you were 1/2 priced at $9.50.
I really don't care, but get over yourself. I'm just sick of your windy posts.
One more thing $103,000.00 saving from $400/ton 46 to 56cent ammonia??? That's a saving of 16 cents roughly @ 60lbs/acre like you said earlier that equals a 75000.00 on 8000 acres??
But I'm sure you have an excuse as to why it happened this way.
P.S. NO ONE is a 400/ton 46. If there is someone I'll start hauing.
And don't use your volume excuse, I'm seeding 8000 acres come spring, and I price my fertilizer with a neighbor who seeds 15000 acres.
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