USDA 5 year census of Ag report today.

[classicalliberal]

I'll copy a newswhire that I receive.

At 2 pm this afternoon, the USDA through its Census of Ag (taken every 5 years) will release revised 2003-2007 area, yield, and crop estimates, and quarterly stock revisions for Dec 2003 through Sep 2008. This is a government update, and it is 5 years encompassing. Be prepared for anything, i.e. carryout’s getting bigger or smaller thereby impacting the outlook and need for acreage shifts in the upcoming year. A lot has gone on in the last 5 years. Massive acreage switches; ethanol boom; ethanol bust; floods; regional droughts; etc.. Be careful but overall trade looking for small changes. Potential for bean carryout to go dn due to a negative residual last year. Also trade watching for corn/wheat feeding changes.



This could be an interesting report, especially if it is revised significantly. A lot of times, the trade already knows and has priced in many of the reports that come out but if they throw a curve ball, it could drastically increase or decrease price levels. There is also a USDA crop production report coming out on Jan 12, 09 at 8 a.m. if anyone is interested. I am not trying to get anyone to speculate, but it is good to know and have an idea of what is believed to be out there.

[Fransisco]

Excuse me, I'm a little nauseous after reading that, I think I'll be needing a bucket.

[TOM4CWB]

Fransisco;

PLEASE remember... the CWB managers are getting paid... a variable 'Bonus' payment (up to 30%)... [kind of like a 'special' final payment] IF they can convince the average permit book 'suffix' CWB ID holders...(those that are the vast majority of voters in CWB elections)...

That the CWB is GREAT!

If they can convince 'suffix' members... every thing else is a piece of cake!

[Fransisco]

Since the vast majority of permit book holders didn't vote I think the bonus should be null and void.

[TOM4CWB]

Fransisco,

The CWB got over 50% to vote... which I would say is extraordinary!

How many suffix ID's in the average book, 6?

[TOM4CWB]

Fransisco;

A good subject for a CWB access to information request... would be to know how many voters were 'actual producers'... and how many were 'suffix' ID holders?

How many 'Permit Books' actually created the voters list?

[charliep]

I am already breaking my first resolution of 2009 by jumping in to a thread but what the heck.

I found the backgrounder as interesting as anything where the CWB list of new programs in the backgrounder. By way of analysis of 2008 and prior (a thing a person does on the last day of the year), I have to ask the following questions.

Are the programs and changes listed (there are many) just window dressing or do they meet the needs of farmers both as sellers of a commodity or as someone who would invest up the supply chain business needs? Have the programs been used (quantity)/can the CWB demonstrate success stories (quality)? What are the costs of the programs to the overall pooling system?

I note the list of contracts and changes to systems. Has the CWB learned lessons from something like the 6 month pooling for feed barley that could be applied to wheat/malt barley pricing pools? Is there an application of the cashplus program for malt barley to wheat/feed barley (allocating producer pricing contracts directly against actual sales versus managing risk across an 15 to 18 month pooling year)?

The list spends a lot of time on performance measures in the annual report. How are the performance measures generated (internally or externally)? What due diligence does the Board of Directors do to ensure these performance measures accurately reflect CWB activities/operations delivery on programs?

[TOM4CWB]

Hi Charlie!

Happy New Year!

The silly thing about CWB performance assessment... is that they measure themselves... against their own theories... and seek to discredit every logical farm gate comparison that really are the bottom line for the very grower the CWB 'claims' to extract a 'premium' from the 'single desk'.

Nothing adds up... but the 'premium' for customers of the CWB.... that appear very satisfied on a risk management basis analysis.

If I am in fact wrong on the 'customer' point of view... then we are really sucking air... as then this CWB system simply maximises losses... for everyone.

What a happy way to end 2008... paying bonuses... to folks at the CWB... to maximising my losses!

ONLY in Canada!

[chaffmeister]

It’s easy to see why some people don’t believe a thing the CWB puts out…


Western Canadian farmers are <b>NOT</b> ringing in the new year with an extra reason to celebrate. (Do they really think that anyone is out there actually "celebrating" CWB governance?)

This has <b>NOT</b> been a decade of tremendous change for the CWB. (Not nearly enough change.)

producers … wanted major improvements in CWB accountability to farmers. The results have <b>NOT</b> been dramatic.

Change began immediately. (He’s kidding, right?)

Farmers <b>HAVE NEVER BEEN</b> able to choose their own prices for wheat, outside of the pool. (I choose $20/bu. just like my cousin in Minot. What do you mean, "no"?)

The board <b>DID NOT INVITE</b> federal Auditor General Sheila Fraser to review the CWB’s finances, operations and governance. (It agreed to a “special audit” only after much “negotiation” and with substantial restrictions placed on the Auditor General. Clearly they don’t know the meaning of the term “invite”.)

The CWB <b>HAS NOT</b> begun developing accountable performance measures. (At least not ones that can actually measure performance openly. The CWB is more secretive and slippery than ever before.)

“We have to be sure that our programs match farmers’ needs (<b>THEY DON’T</B>) and our accountability measures assure them their financial interests are well served (<B>THEY AREN’T</B>). We need to demonstrate the value this organization adds to their farm businesses. (Then do it. So far you’ve failed miserably.)

We must improve our interactions with producers, who are the owners and stakeholders of this corporation. (You mean like real shareholders? Does this mean future votes will be based on each individual’s amount of financial interest in the “corporation”? No, I didn't think so.)

Controlled (hahahahaha) by western Canadian farmers, the CWB is the largest wheat and barley marketer in the world. One of Canada’s biggest exporters, the Winnipeg-based organization sells grain to over 70 countries (<b>in 06-07 it was actually 64 countries but who’s really counting</b>) and returns all sales revenue, less marketing costs, to Prairie farmers."

[classicalliberal]

GOD I HATE THE CWB!!!!!!!!!!!!! I got some really awesome CWB logos that I wish I could post here. I was bored one day and did it.