markets are heating up today!

[furrowtickler]

It will be interesting to see how long this goes?

[cottonpicken]

We need to slaughter 450 canola,11 dollar beans.

[cottonpicken]

463,11.33 for three solid days gives us momentem,which gives us,the evil paper traders,which gives us higher prices.

[fjlip]

We will see tomorrow if some farmers blinked over night. Charts all positive,for a quick move up. Canola resistance $14 higher. Soybeans closed 12 cents past 100 day MA. A third retracement of the price drop is 50 cents higher. Informa reduced Brazil soy crop 1 Mil tonnes. USDA report Jan 12.

[fjlip]

I agree with you CP, Canola should hit $490-500 range. But I'm not sure if it will Canola has been sluggish, I was selling Beans if we hit $10.50 range, and if canola doesn't get to 500 before beans hit 10.50, I will be selling canola. I think Wheat has room for at least a dollar move yet.

I still believe this is a bear market rally, I don't believe we will end this in a single leg down, as this has never happened before. On the other hand I wouldn't be doing any new crop. If you believe history this should be over by the end of the second quarter of this year. The crop we grow this coming year will bring just as good of prices as we seen this past year, going in to 2010.

My 2 cents.

[fjlip]

Will also note my 10.50 beans could change as I'm watching Argentina very closely. If they get rain..... I'll wait for the right signal then sell.

We've also broke out above the 60% using Fibonacci numbers. this looks great on the charts.

[boarderbloke]

Here's a nice South American Satellite map(that you can put into motion) courtesy of The Weather Channel. Looks like Rondonia and northern Mato Grosso were catching a little precep today.(do they grow much crop in Rondonia ???) There was more rain in the east but i don't think they grow much crop in the Bahia, Piaui or Maranhao. Showers/rains staying in the northern half of Brazil, missing the south and Argentina! ANYONE have a link to Argentina's seeded acres with the changes from the avg plantings?? Don't they grow alot of flax??

[dalek]

Funny how it goes... beans way up, local basis down 70 cents.

[furrowtickler]

Yea, local basis levels tanked here today as well. Every one of the local line company puppets are saying that canola is going down to the $7/bus range, and if we do not sell now(this was the advice as of yesterday) we will be lucky to get over $7 before spring. No one is selling/delivering and they need product shortly - then they drop the basis? Such a fun game they play! Cotton et all, I hope you are right on this one. IMO, the line companies are starting to realize that we do not have to sell, but they must buy. Regardless of how much Canola is out there I think they are going to have to pull it off the farm. Keeping the bins locked/not priced is paying off, just like the fert situation.

[Hopperbin]

That would put canola under the CWB pro for HRSW 14%. Ya right.

[GreenValley]

yawn.. yesterday $433 per Tonne for March Canola and last year $527 per Tonne on same month. Bucket up and enjoy ride and there may 1 or 2 loop ahead as of buyer resistance. Errol saying there in Japan and China may increase buying record for January. Today riding continue up and screaming.

[GreenValley]

and look out Monday...

[furrowtickler]

look out this afternoon! Hopefully cotton is still right!

[fjlip]

Looks like it was a bear rally! Gas and diesel stocks in US, a surprise. Crude down to $42.72 E trading. Unless the Middle East gets scary, crude could tank and test $36 again. Canola might test $350 again. May be this was the last dead cat bounce before the markets puke.