Oats is its time coming for a rally?

[SASKFARMER3]

Just looking at things today and getting some calls to price oats. Not for fall or next winter but now. Is it working and are they starting to run short of supply since farmers are holding strong.
My thought is Yes the high priced stuff is getting every excuse seen to man, from light to grout to dark wild life damage to frost. I feel if a $3.00 plus is made available for delivery in march to $4.00 take. Don't price oats for next winter let them beg for it.

[carebear300]

Hope you are right!!!!!!!!!! We have been playing the waiting game patiently. Keeping fingers crossed. lol

[cottonpicken]

Were at a very important technical line in most of the grains.

If the next few days are bad were going to take a lickin.

[classicalliberal]

There is about 500,000mt of oats in Duluth and Minneapolis that was bought at historically weak basis levels and are being stored in a full carry market. Whitebox Commodities, who arbitraged the weak basis will sell out inventory when the basis gets stronger and General Mills will use thier stored oats if there is a crop failure or no one moves it. I'm thinking that we will likely have to take what we can get for oats this year and possibly next.

[SASKFARMER3]

I know I heard all that BS before that Quaker was bought out for two years yet why oh why are their phone calls this week looking for oats and steady phone calls. Maybe its another company that's BS us farmers with misrepresented information so as to take advantage of us farmers. Could it be.

[classicalliberal]

Yes, oh those poor farmers. Dude, we are the chosen group.

[SASKFARMER3]

Classic liberal so every thing you hear and read coming out of the companies is the gospel truth. Do you honestly believe what they tell you every news bulletin etc. Do you honestly believe them.
Again DO YOU HONESTLY BELEIVE ALL THE BS THAT FARMERS WERE GIVEN THE LAST 6 months to a year from any company.
Baffle them with BS and sooner or later they will believe it.

[skhadenuf]

Yeah it's just like the myth that last year's canola price had such a drastic effect on consumers. Canola was what 12 to 14 bucks everyone up the chain at that time still making huge profits canola oil in the grocer price went up what 10-20 cents, but now that canola is 8 and 9 bucks, canola oil is the same price or up slightly, so who in the system is stealing that 4 or 5 bucks.

[classicalliberal]

The information regarding the oats in commercial, deliverable storage is available at the USDA as well as the CME Group websites. No one is lying to us and no one is stealing from us and there is no conspiracy against farmers.

[SASKFARMER3]

Oh boy your a real believer.
The USDA when was the last time it was right on with its projections. When Classic Liberal, They redo their numbers and like their latest report baffle most with almost nor realm or reason.
Again do you honestly believe the BS most companies tell us farmers?
I am not trying to create a conspiracy theory that's BS, but look at every thing the companies issued since around the time of Katrina and try to explain why prices for their product have to go up yet ours go up for one day and the world goes nuts with reasons why it shouldn't.

[classicalliberal]

Ok, so should I believe that there is a shortage of oats? The basis this past year didn't tell me that there was a shortage of oats.

[SASKFARMER3]

No their is no shortage of oats in "Western Canada", But I dont believe their was as much product sold as to keep them running for two years. Other wise why would the elevators and brokers be phoning looking for oats? Yes Product was sold to the Millers but two year supply I highly doubt it.

[classicalliberal]

The local millers will likely be filling short term needs. The local millers don't have the kind of storage that some of the US millers and buyers have.

[mbratrud]

I think the problem with Oats this year which has relly changed the game is the fact that there are Scandinavian Oats flowing into North America. Created by the weakness in the Euro Since October, this on top of Large Canadian supply. I hate to say it but I'm not holding my breath for a major breakthough in the Oats price. At least until we get into the next crop cycle at which time it will take some weather crisis somewhere to spark things up.

[classicalliberal]

I agree, the Scandanavian oats will fill the increase in demand for oats due to the positive movements in the corn/oat spread. Our rail rates to the southern states are too expensive relative to ocean freight and thus the scandinavian oats will come in. They got to buy it where it is cheapest.