Hay Prices

[charliep]

Hay seems to be one of those commodities these days that if you have to ask the price, you can't afford it. A price I heard today for small square bales (immediate delivery) was $8/bale (my math would suggest 14 to 16 cents/lb). That compares to $3.10/bu for feed barley delivered feedlot S.AB. (7 cents/lb). what are other people hearing on hay prices? Any new crop prices? How are feed users going to react to this?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Alot of Oats and Barley will be greenfeed this year, probably the highest in history!

Our pastures are just starting to come on now, the worst is over for the summer, but there really is going to be a short 1st cut hay crop.

North of Edmonton lost most of the alfalfa to winter kill, so we are headed for a very tight forage feeding situation in north central Alberta.

[cowman]

If hay prices stay at this level I can tell you what is going to happen...the cow herd will be liquidated! A lot of people seem to think there is all kinds of money to be made in cattle but in reality why it has been good is because of cheap feed prices. Everything else you buy has kept right up, or done better than rising cattle prices.
I believe if the government gives us a break on the taxes you will see a massive kill down of the cow herd. There's going to be a lot of sad stories out there this year. Here in central Alberta it is still pretty dry and the grain crops are quite far behind. We're going to need a frost free August even if it starts raining. It could be pretty ugly this winter!

[melvill]

Cowman, do you really think cow herds will be liquidated if hay prices don't moderate? Or will it be heavy culling - old cows that should have gone last year and young cows that didn't bring in a decent calf. What are the chances in Central Alberta of barley crops being made into greenfeed - slim to none - or is there a decent chance, especially if barley grain prices are pressured by US corn imports and the size of the US corn crop?

[cowman]

You are probably right in that it will be a heavy cull. Cattle people aren't the most astute businessmen in the world! They'll hang onto those cows until they are completely broke! But I do believe if the government gives us a break on the income tax a lot of people will see the light and unload. I've raised cattle all my life but I don't love them enough to pay to keep them. I'm not in the pet business!
I believe a lot of barley will go in the silage pit that would normally be harvested. If forage prices stay up and grain doesn't there will be a lot cut for greenfeed, especially if they have someone knocking on the door with a fistfull of cash. It takes about three to four tons of hay to get a cow through the winter. At fifteen cents a pound, for hay, that's nine hundred to twelve hundred dollars a cow. Shouldn't be too hard to figure out what to do with her, is it?

[charliep]

Just a note that the 15 cents/lb is a spot price for smaller quanitities. New crop is somewhat cheaper although I have still been hearing some pretty lofty values in S.AB. Drought has been one factor but Montana cattleman bringing some of their gov't support/drought payment north to buy hay has also influenced the market. Any comments from farmers south of the trans Canada.

A couple of comments.

1) The signal on tight forage has gone out early so people will be making changes/planning their business to reflect this. It may mean more greenfeed. It may be moving to a straw/grain ration (heavan forbid, we may even see people pulling the old chaff wagons out of the their equipment bone yard and using them). It may mean moving the cows to where the feed is versus the feed to the cows.

2) My experience is that perception is often worst than reality. The issue is to be prepared and have a plan with some alternatives.

Has anyone been hearing any new crop hay values?