02/23 decline?

[furrowtickler]

Cotton, I read this from an American AG site - "prices will drift lower until the 23rd of feb." Reason - a huge percentage of the corn in storage is high moisture and has to be moved soon.
What are your thoughts? Source - Agriculture online - Marketing talk.

[cottonpicken]

The chaos,confusion and fear make the short term near impossible to read.

Longer term the fundamentals should take over.

The question i've been trying to understand is are they pumping enough?

The way i see things is that the system demands ever increasing amounts of liquidity at an exponential growth rate.

We all have heard the stagering "stimulous" numbers,but is it enough?

This is the only rational arguement for the deflationists.

The graphs ive seen dont look like were in parabolic mode yet,but the time line scale begins to get tight on any exponential growth chart.Its hard to see the scale.

An analogy I found to help explain:

Once upon a time, long ago there was a king who ruled a prosperous land. Poverty was unknown there and every person was gainfully employed. Hence the sight of a beggar making his way along Main Street caused quite a stir in the capital of the land. The king demanded to see this strange man. When brought to him the beggar revealed that he indeed did not have any possessions nor any money for the purchase of food. The king magnanimously offered all-you-can-eat meals for the rest of the week and clean clothes so that the beggar could continue his journey to the next land. Surprisingly, the beggar declined the royal offer and asked for a modest favor. The king demanded to know what the wish was. The beggar humbly requested a grain of rice for the first day, two on the second, four on the third day and so on - doubling the previous days contribution.

The king looked through the window at the overflowing granaries and almost accepted it when his grand vizier, remembering something that he had learnt in Elements of Numbers (Math 201 at the local University) advised his highness that he should reconsider. To calculate the implication of the wish he pulled out a dusty abacus to perform exponential calculations. He fumbled with it for a while but could not express the magnitude of the numbers involved because he ran out of beads. The king getting impatient with his vizier on such a simple wish from a poor man, officially granted the beggar the wish. Little did he know that he had sounded the death knell of his reign.

The next day the beggar came to claim his grain of rice. The townsfolk laughed at the beggar and said that he should have taken the king's kind offer for a full meal instead of the measly grain of rice. On the second day he was back for the two grains. A week later, he brought a teaspoon for the 128 grains that was due to him. In two weeks it was a non-negligible amount of half a kilo. At the end of the month it had grown to a whopping 35 tons. A few days later the king had to declare bankruptcy. That is how long it was needed to bring down the kingdom.

For the pedantic ones I assumed that a grain of rice weighs 0.033 grams. By the way, I used whole rice and hence your mileage might vary.

I have heard of a variation of this story from China where the beggar requested a grain for the first square on a chess board, two for the second square and so on for each square. The king would be bankrupt long before the beggar got to the sixty-fourth square on the chess board.

[cropduster]

Cotton....would the word"uncertainty" fit somewhere??

[mustardman]

I remember that story from highschool and it was a penny on the first square of the chess board and it ends up being a 17 digit number on the 64 th square.

[mcfarms]

Oh so thats where monsanto got it's pricing policy on the molecule for glyphosphate from, I always wondered now I know, each year is a square.

[cottonpicken]

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/archive/2009/02/02/u-s-dollar-devaluation-on-its-way.aspx

[cottonpicken]

Different topic
makes you wonder

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvVilAlCBYc&feature=related