Rumors on Adjustment payments?

[charliep]

Had a question from a farmer on adjustment payments? Haven't seen anything out of the CWB.

Most initial payments are sitting at about 75 % of the January PRO. If you assume early payment option premiums are a measure of risk, 100 % EPO discounts are still about $30/tonne spring wheats (CWRS,CPS,CWRW) with CWES, SWS and durum much higher. Malt barley 90 % EPO is about $3/tonne (should be assured this price give recent announcements) and $13/tonne for 100 % EPO.

[caseman]

I got an email from cwb on Tues. saying they asked for an increase on initial payments NOV. 28.

They are waiting for approval.

[LWeber]

Quote:

Controlled by western Canadian farmers, the CWB is the largest wheat and barley marketer in the world.

Unquote.

November 28th ... that is some control farmers have...

About as much as an 18 year old on prom night... but if you keep saying it long enough - farmers buy into it - and then it must be true.

[HFL]

Dosen't really matter if there is an increase. Our grain is mostly all still at home anyhow.

[haveapulse]

Grain mostly at home is a good thing at this time. However, if wheat starts to go up you can bet the multinationals will be in buying from the CWB to be sure they get the last of the cheap wheat, but premium quality branded wheat I might add.

Covering shorts with captive CWB stocks, works like a charm!

However if the CWB has not sold they may be in a good position to capitalize on the drought in China which is mostly in wheat.

Hopefully Ian can prove that value is in actual results that we can bank.

[silverback]

Hopefully Ian can wave his magic wand and have us all forget about the lost opportunities of the highest wheat prices in history over the past year.

Wait, it looks like he has started his work.

[Fransisco]

Yes, it's malt barley farmers who decided to close the pool early. I'm sure they all got a chance to vote on this decision and everything.

[gustgd]

talked to my local CWB reps replacement this morning re: Durum and questions on the EPO
he talked about waiting until Feb 16th as the likely date that the initial will increase. then Make decisions regarding the EPO's
Also note that the "barley pool is not closed" it's only export sales closed from the pool.
domestic sales are still in
Can anybody make sense of this mess?
Looks to me like Canadian Maltsters will be importing foreign barley

[Hopperbin]

Or the local maltsters are just losing their export malt sales. Sucks to have business located in Canada EH.

[sawfly]

let me get this straight
the CWB hasn,t sold enough wheat and they sold it too low. and selling more would have improved the price.

the board has not sold enough malt and they sold it too high.
what they should have done when they realized there was lots around, was cut the price sooner to undercut the competition.

now the board is chargeing the domestic malsters too much.
you can't do that,
you can't abuse your market power and charge more simply because of a border.
that would never happen with fertilizer or chemical

[Burbert]

You are damned it you DO! (Sell. You are damned, if you DON'T! (Sell). Only hindsight is perfect... CWB good, CWB bad. Farmers are all so so so sad. Guys the market has melted and continues to melt away, and the only solution you can come up with is, trash the CWB, our marketing agency?

[furrowtickler]

Burbot, I dont know if they just let you out of the 'home' or what but markets stabilized back in december and have been slowly creeping up. Open your eyes and look around.

[TOM4CWB]

Burbert/Sawfly,

Guess how the CWB sells grain...

So much a month... for the pool year... giving an average price... we were/are told.

What is the CWB doing now?

Cut the pool off... halfway through the year... to force those who had grain to sell... especially in the next few months...

with the one option only. The Domestic Feed market.

SURPRISE... these prices are cratered... MUCH below corn value.

We growers planted the 2008 crop... especially barley... with the thought of open transparent marketing...

We end up with the worst CWB marketing mess... ever.

What does history tell us?

We hold back supply of our premium produce... Then even more is grown (outside Canada) of this premium produce... and now we don't get the opportunity to access the market at a fair price...

So the surplus grows larger globally...


OR... do you know something we don't?

dO YOU KNOW FOR SURE THE MARKET IS HEADED HIGHER? (the logical reason to with hold supply for better prices in the near future)

iF THE MARKET IS HEADED HIGHER... WHY CUT OFF THE POOL?

The CWB simply has bogus 'single desk' theology... that does not work in the reality of planet earth in 2009-10!

[charliep]

sawfly

Answer to your first question will be in the 2007/08 CWB annual report
under the performance measures. It is also in the producer payment
options that provided higher than PRO values if signed 6 to 12 months
ago (in spite of the extremely weak basis levels relative to previous
years - a direct transfer of money out of these farmers pockets to put
money back into the PPO contingency fund).

On malt, why haven't the cashplus programs been offered as a normal
part of business all the way along - not a press release the end of
January? As highlighted by others, the domestic maltsters are pretty
much priced out for their business till new crop. If there were
additional business, the CWB and the domestic maltster would work a
deal outside the light of public debate in a way that benefited both (not
necessarily a way that benefited an individual farmer). The only major
business that is outstanding is Chinese and maybe some US. Will be
curious whether business actually occurs or an empty press with limited
results. The CWB has set their target at 1.4 MMT malt barley sales (in
addition to the 1 MMT sold to domestic maltsters).

On your concerns about US borders, I note the gate only stops the
traffic one way. Both brewers and maltsters can import US product
relatively easily. It is the Canadian product moving south that faces
barriers. The barrier is not price but rather a bureaucracy/additional
steps that trump ability to do business.

[parsley]

In organics, wheat and barley is brought into Canada all the time. No problem. The CWB can even buy wheat and barley from other countries and supply the organic market needs.