Rumors on Adjustment payments?

[TOM4CWB]

Burbert/Sawfly,

Guess how the CWB sells grain...

So much a month... for the pool year... giving an average price... we were/are told.

What is the CWB doing now?

Cut the pool off... halfway through the year... to force those who had grain to sell... especially in the next few months...

with the one option only. The Domestic Feed market.

SURPRISE... these prices are cratered... MUCH below corn value.

We growers planted the 2008 crop... especially barley... with the thought of open transparent marketing...

We end up with the worst CWB marketing mess... ever.

What does history tell us?

We hold back supply of our premium produce... Then even more is grown (outside Canada) of this premium produce... and now we don't get the opportunity to access the market at a fair price...

So the surplus grows larger globally...


OR... do you know something we don't?

dO YOU KNOW FOR SURE THE MARKET IS HEADED HIGHER? (the logical reason to with hold supply for better prices in the near future)

iF THE MARKET IS HEADED HIGHER... WHY CUT OFF THE POOL?

The CWB simply has bogus 'single desk' theology... that does not work in the reality of planet earth in 2009-10!

[charliep]

sawfly

Answer to your first question will be in the 2007/08 CWB annual report
under the performance measures. It is also in the producer payment
options that provided higher than PRO values if signed 6 to 12 months
ago (in spite of the extremely weak basis levels relative to previous
years - a direct transfer of money out of these farmers pockets to put
money back into the PPO contingency fund).

On malt, why haven't the cashplus programs been offered as a normal
part of business all the way along - not a press release the end of
January? As highlighted by others, the domestic maltsters are pretty
much priced out for their business till new crop. If there were
additional business, the CWB and the domestic maltster would work a
deal outside the light of public debate in a way that benefited both (not
necessarily a way that benefited an individual farmer). The only major
business that is outstanding is Chinese and maybe some US. Will be
curious whether business actually occurs or an empty press with limited
results. The CWB has set their target at 1.4 MMT malt barley sales (in
addition to the 1 MMT sold to domestic maltsters).

On your concerns about US borders, I note the gate only stops the
traffic one way. Both brewers and maltsters can import US product
relatively easily. It is the Canadian product moving south that faces
barriers. The barrier is not price but rather a bureaucracy/additional
steps that trump ability to do business.

[parsley]

In organics, wheat and barley is brought into Canada all the time. No problem. The CWB can even buy wheat and barley from other countries and supply the organic market needs.

[charliep]

I should note that I have talked to traders who
question how much malt barley business there is left
to do at any price. An article or two which highlights
beer is luxury in many parts of the world - tough
times equals reduced consumption. Brewers have also
learned to use less malt in beer and heaven forbid I
would suggest, no malt in some of the near beers.

[charliep]

Apologize but seems strange how the conversation went from talking
about the decision about how much more farmers should be given
out of the pooling system (adjustment payment) - a decision by the
federal government first and foremost based on a recommendation
by the CWB (nothing to do with the market/prices a farmer would
make decisions on) and then to something vaguely related to market
signals/what the world is paying.

[LWeber]

Articles this week indicating that tough times equals increased consumption of alcohol worldwide and a decrease of premium brands.


http://www.freep.com/article/20090131/NEWS05/901310322/Michigan s hard times boost demand for hard liquor


With Michigan experiencing the highest unemployment rate in the country, a continually slumping economy and having one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation, experts say much of the increased drinking may be related to people trying to drown their sorrows -- at home.

Alcohol consumption historically climbs in bad times.

Alcohol sales rise nationally

http://www.theitem.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090125/BIZ/701259959

India:
No recession for beer, Q3 volumes jump 14%

Australia:

Spirited drinkers switching to beer

http://business.theage.com.au/business/spirited-drinkers-switching-to-beer-20090116-7j8b.html

Canada:

Turning to the bottle in tough times

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1210866

[cottonpicken]

Bad times,Good times its always miller time.

In my past life i use to write beer commercials.

[cottonpicken]

Read this a while ago,was able to find it.

http://www.barleygreensupply.com/dr-yoshide-hagiwara.html

There was also another british military study i'll try to find.

[Ron]

CottonPicken, when I was in college I think I was in a beer commercial.

I cant see reduction in alcohol consumption ever, when times are good we party, when times are bad we drown our sorrows.

The only reduction will be in "road pops" when oilfield crews arent working.

[Hopperbin]

Just did my corporate income tax. Even had to put this year an extra 200,000
into 08 exenses to stay in the 16% tax bracket. So I am drinking because paying so much tax and drinking from good times. Mind you I prefer tha hard stuff, so not sure what that has to do with malt.

[Hopperbin]

Cotton, actually I notice the Chinese like to fry the Canola plant when it is young and also when it is bolting to when it is pre flowering.

Parsley do you cook with Canola plants?
Mind you for young plants I prefer to use untreated seed.

[parsley]

hopper,

No. I prefer to use hot mustard plants. The black mustard is the best in stir fries. Pars