Read this you Pro-socialist CWB commies

[Fransisco]

http://www.alaska.net/~clund/e_djublonskopf/Flatearthsociety.htm

[dmlfarmer]

Interesting read but it leaves me with lots of questions.

There is no absolutely no indication in the article as to the effect on farm gate prices. This report does not tell me if farm gate prices have improved, or are better than world prices. We only have to look at fertilizer to know that prices are no longer simply a function of supply and demand therefore even if there are more buyers it does not necessarily mean higher prices.

Second, how much of the increased shipping and demand is due to the huge drop in ocean freight rates over the last 6 months as compared to increased number of buyers.

Third, since exporters have to submit an export proposal amount in order to become accredited and (I am assuming) have to actually export to maintain their accediation, could there or is there a percentage of the sales are being made at cost or lower simply to achieve accreditation?

Fourth, what will happen to the 6 exporters who have not shipped wheat yet if they are unable to source wheat in the future or find markets. Will they disappear if they do not export? Will there be a rationalization over the next few years down to the few global grain traders who dominate the world markets? What will happen to the grains farmers contracted to them and will farmers loss money on grain delivered to these exporters if they go out of business?

Fifth, the article says "while some (exporters) are replacing wheat that they had previously sought internationally with Australian wheat."
Does this mean Australian wheat is being dumped at below world market prices in order to buy market share? Afterall, what country would be willing to pay a premium for Australian wheat given the world economy? Could Canada actually be losing markets because of competition between Austrailian exporters trying to export wheat? Could it be Australian export competition is driving down world wheat prices? Sure they may be selling more wheat but if Australian and world prices are lower who wins except the exporters?

Sixth, to state: "“That would indicate that the demand for grain exceeds
supply,” Woodley said" and base this statement on export projections of companies seeking export licenses is totally misleading without consideration of not only selling prices and also farm gate prices and profits made by exporters. We need this information before we know if the demand is real, or created by price manipulation.

While this report sounds very good We need a whole lot more information than a rosy report by an agency who was created and is dependant upon the success of deregulation. Enron reports were very rosy until we found out the actual facts of the pricing and sales of electricity were short term fabrications.

[parsley]

According to one of the Aussie newsletters, today's prices both US$/A$, are at their second highest level since 1996.

US$ futuresprices are 30.16% above the average and A$ US futures are 46.57% above average.

Current cash prices stand 49.83% above av.

Basis levels at $11.56/t a few days ago are above the av of $3.29/t.
Pars

[stubblejumper]

The farmers for just me are a lot better at asking questions than answering them

[dmlfarmer]

Thanks for the US/Australian stats. But how does Canada compare? Is not our current wheat prices also second highest since 1996?

How much is Canadian futures prices up over the average since 1996?

How much is Canadian cash prices up over the average?

What is our average basis level and does it compare to the average.

While your stats for US and Australia are interesting, unless you also have a comparison with Canada it tells me nothing.

And might I remind you also the futures market, since spring of last year has not been an accurate reflection of cash prices becuase of the volatility in the financial and commodity markets.

If you want to provide useful comparisons give me the average farm gate price recieved by Australian, US, and Canadian farmers with a breakout of any and all subsidies by the respective countries.

[silverback]

The status quo socialists are much better at ignoring direct questions than answering them.

[Zaphod]

Lots of nice smokescreen questions to avoid dealing with the substance. Of course, the Aussie situation hasn't been going on long enough to completely analyze the picture. But let's see, is increased competition normally good or bad for prices? The CWB says it is good for everyone (rail companies, line companies, etc) except themselves.

Oh and by the way, there are no Cdn wheat futures. Why would there be when no one can actually market milling wheat in western Cda?

There are several studies (Informa and CD Howe) that compare farmgate prices and export basis levels in the US and Canada. Try reading one of those. Subsidies have been a non-issue for the last several years in the US and are a complete non-issue in Australia for at least a decade.

Now how about putting up some answers as opposed to just questions.

[Zaphod]

Oh and by the way, we don't have cash prices in Cda either. That would imply we have a functioning market.

[parsley]

dml,

I was amiss in ONLY quoting readily available Aussie stats. At the fingertips, daily. No secretive sects hoarding single desk numbers in Aussieland, anymore, so I just got carried away. What was I thinkin'?


Wait. I have inspiration.


We can get current CANADIAN numbers from the Wheat Board. They will be wheat/barley open and transparent, right?

Now, I'm just heading out in a damn snowstorm here, so I'll have to leave it to an AV'er to dingylingy the Board. Hope AVer's don't get snowed.

The Wheat Board probably has each Conception to Cremation attendee equipped with a computer filled with minute to minute fresh statisitcs.

Could we email the alumni for Fresh daily statistics-meat as an alternate, if the toll free number is packed with calls? Are you an alumni, dml? You could post right online on AV.

dml, I'm glad you stayed focused. The entire grain trade will look forward to Wheat Board numbers.

Yours as always, Pars

[parsley]

Zaph, I'm confused, we don't have cash daily prices? HUH?


Oh, right, I forgot we have a monopoly. I forgot the CWB don't publish prices in Canada. Farmers depend on foreign exchanges to find out what is happening in Canada becasue the CWB's AE's won't share theor CWB info with farmers.


Hey, look on the bright side, like dml probably does,....... we have daily cash withdrawals from the contingency fund, so the CWB aren't total losers, right?

Right?

Pars