What Crop Shows potential profit in 2009?

[SASKFARMER3]

OK here is one for discussion, taking all things and every one equal on Input costs (Today's Prices)(Yield) and just today's market price which crops look promising for your farm?

Oats 100 bus x 2.12 = $212.00 per acre.
Canola 40 bus x 8.53 = $341.00per acre.
HRS 40 Bus x 6.37 = $254.00 per acre.
Durum 50 Bus x 6.75 = $337.00 per acre.
Flax 30 Bus x ?
Lentil 30 Bus x ?
Peas 35 Bus x $4.85 = $169.00

ETC ETC ETC>
Simply looks like Yellow peas are a dud, Because of Cost to grow and yield can be either way depending on June July rain fall.

[Zaphod]

I think $11 is still out there for flax. That looks not bad, especially with lower input costs. Problem is, will everyone else jump on the flax boat and sink it? I guess the trick is to lock in a price now on half the crop.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea on Flax getting some calls to see if have seed!

[parsley]

If you have some cash to invest,hemp!
Great products derived from hemp Pars

[Hopperbin]

I still like yellow peas and will plant 7 quarters of them. For one no fertilizer on them acres and harvesting sooner. Never thought I would say it but I think wheat is the sleeping dog waiting for the knock on the door. So mostly wheat in rotation.
Your wheat and pea yield is low compared to your canola. My Soft wheat yielded 72BPA this year, Canola under 40. Canola is also more expensive to plant, but more enjoyable to grow.

[SASKFARMER3]

hopper its not my yields just numbers I used.
Yes if wheat would average over 60 and durum at 70 and oats 125 and barley at 100 then yes most crops make money at today's prices.
But your right I am starting to think Wheat is the sleeping dog.
Lentils and Flax will be going way up. Mustard will be seeded.
Durum will be down if we have to keep 40% over for another year. Peas I think will be down, Were still growing the same as last year but might switch 1/2 to green vs Yellow.
Barley and Oats are either in or out.
Canola will be same as always.
But might be keeping some over to.

[cottonpicken]

Where did you come up with those prices?

I would say they are quite a bit off the mark.

[malleefarmer]

In australia it will be mostly wheat,canola maybe malt barley pulses then feed barley.
At present i can lock in around $280 per tonne australian on farm for dec 09 harvest
Was $305 4 weeks ago

Im speaking fundamentally here are we just in a dead cat bounce at the minute or are there a few potential problems looming? Can prices sneak up another 50cent us a bushel on weather scares?

was speaking fundamentally cotton not taking into acount all the negative outside influences.

On the flip side sask if the world has a average or better production are we set for $4.00 wheat or i shudder to think less?

[malleefarmer]

Lock in wheat prices that was.

[Hopperbin]

What type of wheat is that Mallee?

[SASKFARMER3]

cotton
Canola off Harrowby for Nov.
Oats T22 Dec basis selling today.
Peas Balgonie Pioneer

[SASKFARMER3]

Mallee your right if the world grows a crop like last year look out we will be all loosing big time.
But wait I just heard the Pot commercial on the Radio again.
Food stocks are low grain prices are rising. BLA BLA buy fertilizer today.

[malleefarmer]

dont know how our grades compare to yours.
AH1 australian hard 1 13% or better
AH2 11.5% to 13%
APW Aust Premium White 10.5% upwards
ASW Aust standard white 10.5 upwards
AGP aust general purpose
Feed Wheat
Then noodle wheats and durum wheats and biscuit wheats

most grow apw ah2 and asw
spread between ah1 and asw is around $35 per tonne agp another $10 or 15 off and feed another 30 or so off

apw and asw is a varital thing non preffered milling types are asw usually creat yellow dough or poor dough extension.

but when wheat the price it was in dec o7 wheat is wheat nobody cares they just want wheat

we have maybe 20 segregations for wheat at my local elevator i try not to deleiver there though.

i prefer to sell straight out the field

[skhadenuf]

Well I guess I must either have crappy land or just be a poor manager because with the flood, drought, frost, hail and insects causing total wipeouts in several of the last 10 years on our farm to have a 40 bushel acre average on canola would have had to grow 80 bushels per acre some years. Our average is comparable to the neighbors, canola is 24 bushels acre, hard red is 36 bushels, barley is 58bushels, flax is 18 bushels, peas are 27bushels. Just wondering what are some other average yields for you guys.

[Choice2U]

I hate one number when it comes to yield because of the variability in our weather. I'll give you an average range and then the ( ) number will be the budget.
Canola: 35 - 40 (30)
Wheat: 35 - 40 (30)
Durum: add 10%
Peas: 40 - 50 (40)
Barley (Malt): 60 - 70 (60)
Lentils: 1,000 - 1,500 lbs (1,000)
Flax: 20 (20)
Canary: 20 (20)
I plan to lock in as much flax yield as I can (50%), use the FPC or BC on wheat, play the canola market with basis/futures contracts & options.