What Crop Shows potential profit in 2009?

[SASKFARMER3]

cotton
Canola off Harrowby for Nov.
Oats T22 Dec basis selling today.
Peas Balgonie Pioneer

[SASKFARMER3]

Mallee your right if the world grows a crop like last year look out we will be all loosing big time.
But wait I just heard the Pot commercial on the Radio again.
Food stocks are low grain prices are rising. BLA BLA buy fertilizer today.

[malleefarmer]

dont know how our grades compare to yours.
AH1 australian hard 1 13% or better
AH2 11.5% to 13%
APW Aust Premium White 10.5% upwards
ASW Aust standard white 10.5 upwards
AGP aust general purpose
Feed Wheat
Then noodle wheats and durum wheats and biscuit wheats

most grow apw ah2 and asw
spread between ah1 and asw is around $35 per tonne agp another $10 or 15 off and feed another 30 or so off

apw and asw is a varital thing non preffered milling types are asw usually creat yellow dough or poor dough extension.

but when wheat the price it was in dec o7 wheat is wheat nobody cares they just want wheat

we have maybe 20 segregations for wheat at my local elevator i try not to deleiver there though.

i prefer to sell straight out the field

[skhadenuf]

Well I guess I must either have crappy land or just be a poor manager because with the flood, drought, frost, hail and insects causing total wipeouts in several of the last 10 years on our farm to have a 40 bushel acre average on canola would have had to grow 80 bushels per acre some years. Our average is comparable to the neighbors, canola is 24 bushels acre, hard red is 36 bushels, barley is 58bushels, flax is 18 bushels, peas are 27bushels. Just wondering what are some other average yields for you guys.

[Choice2U]

I hate one number when it comes to yield because of the variability in our weather. I'll give you an average range and then the ( ) number will be the budget.
Canola: 35 - 40 (30)
Wheat: 35 - 40 (30)
Durum: add 10%
Peas: 40 - 50 (40)
Barley (Malt): 60 - 70 (60)
Lentils: 1,000 - 1,500 lbs (1,000)
Flax: 20 (20)
Canary: 20 (20)
I plan to lock in as much flax yield as I can (50%), use the FPC or BC on wheat, play the canola market with basis/futures contracts & options.

[Koldkanuck]

Looks like we'll be growing some flax for the first time in the last 10 years. Sept/Oct. @ $11.23. Don't need phosphate with flax is a help. Oats still not bad considering lower input costs. Sept./Oct. can still get about $2.94 bushel. Yellow peas still going in, even though we havn't sold 1 bushel from this year. I don't see no crop making any profit this year, so also considering making some summerfallow, then seeding fall rye on it. Its been a few years since we've had a killing frost in August and I'm 75% sure we'll have one this year..so our canola is going to be seeded first thing this year. I've put in over 40 crops in my life and I'm saying frost this year. My older farmer friends are muttering the same, so take it how you like. If the spring gets real late, I'll even summerfallow more.

[redbaron]

Wheat might be the sleeper like someone mentioned. I am caught in a rotational issue. Have a lot of canola stubble and options are limited. On my farm wheat pencils out better than oats. So then I have another major issue. I need cash flow off the combine. We all know how that one works with our system and wheat.

A question? Has anyone seen the list of new wheat varieties registered and available for the coming year. Am interested in knowing how the new KVD changes are factoring in. If the recommending committee is looking at making some serious changes? Or if it will be the same old same old. There was a new wheat called Glenn that was up for possible registration. Comes from ND and shows good tolerance to fusarium and high yields. Would really work well on our farm.

[malleefarmer]

dumb question why do your oats yield so well in comparison to wheat and barley?

wheat is king in australia

[bluefargo]

Mallee
You will get other responses to this but one basic reason is the "official" bushel weights of various grains.

Legal weight of wheat = 60 lbs/bu
Legal weight of oats = 34 lbs/bu

A yield of one tonne/acre = 36.7 bu/acre
A yield of one tonne/acre of oats = 64.8 bu/acre

Really the bushel measurement is dumb and should have been dropped years ago.

[Zaphod]

Oats gets better yields and bushel weights in areas where summer temps are a little cooler. Oats is more of a cool season crop.