What Crop Shows potential profit in 2009?

[Koldkanuck]

Looks like we'll be growing some flax for the first time in the last 10 years. Sept/Oct. @ $11.23. Don't need phosphate with flax is a help. Oats still not bad considering lower input costs. Sept./Oct. can still get about $2.94 bushel. Yellow peas still going in, even though we havn't sold 1 bushel from this year. I don't see no crop making any profit this year, so also considering making some summerfallow, then seeding fall rye on it. Its been a few years since we've had a killing frost in August and I'm 75% sure we'll have one this year..so our canola is going to be seeded first thing this year. I've put in over 40 crops in my life and I'm saying frost this year. My older farmer friends are muttering the same, so take it how you like. If the spring gets real late, I'll even summerfallow more.

[redbaron]

Wheat might be the sleeper like someone mentioned. I am caught in a rotational issue. Have a lot of canola stubble and options are limited. On my farm wheat pencils out better than oats. So then I have another major issue. I need cash flow off the combine. We all know how that one works with our system and wheat.

A question? Has anyone seen the list of new wheat varieties registered and available for the coming year. Am interested in knowing how the new KVD changes are factoring in. If the recommending committee is looking at making some serious changes? Or if it will be the same old same old. There was a new wheat called Glenn that was up for possible registration. Comes from ND and shows good tolerance to fusarium and high yields. Would really work well on our farm.

[malleefarmer]

dumb question why do your oats yield so well in comparison to wheat and barley?

wheat is king in australia

[bluefargo]

Mallee
You will get other responses to this but one basic reason is the "official" bushel weights of various grains.

Legal weight of wheat = 60 lbs/bu
Legal weight of oats = 34 lbs/bu

A yield of one tonne/acre = 36.7 bu/acre
A yield of one tonne/acre of oats = 64.8 bu/acre

Really the bushel measurement is dumb and should have been dropped years ago.

[Zaphod]

Oats gets better yields and bushel weights in areas where summer temps are a little cooler. Oats is more of a cool season crop.

[mbratrud]

The market is staring to atticipate large flax acres and reading this thread makes me think they may be right.

I like Malt Barley with a $4.25 Cash Plus.

I will go against conventional wisdom in say Canola may surprise us. Acres may soften and with all the Chinese buying as of late, carry out although higher than normal may be less than expected. Pair that with a small rise in Crude maybe to $55 - $60 and a further softening of the dollar and who knows, we may beable to count on $9 - $10.

Lentils look good again maybe not as strong as last year but even .20 cent Lentils look good on our farm.

All I know is there will be surprises out there. From what I hear there are many seeding plans up in the air this year.

[malleefarmer]

yeah was aware of bushel wieghts but evn so they yield good in comparison to wheat.

Oats are almost a forgotten crop in australia, i grow around 200 acres for grain for livestock and 300 for hay

Also your pea yields are high as well, basically here peas are around 50% the yield of wheat

ps i know these comments should be in crop production section not marketing