How poor is the Soy Crop in Brazil and Argentina?

[SASKFARMER3]

Kory from Brazil said.
"I have read the recent reports that Brazil soybean crop is 57 MMT and Argentina is 44 MMT. I have to laugh. The crop is getting smaller; not bigger !!
I am planning a trip to Argentina the end of March or early April. I am waiting on confirmation. I will have REAL on the ground yield results".

Brazil crop is more like 55 MMT and ARG 40 MMT.

So If some one who is an agrologist and lives their feels the crop is poor and wont recover why is the USDA and Markets still thinking a huge crop is coming? Is it to keep Fertilizer prices high so guys seed corn instead of Beans? Is it keep the corn acres up for the ethanol?
Any one have some answers?

[Zaphod]

Maybe it's because it rained in February. Keep in mind, the soy crop in Argentina is mostly in the north. Look at the map links below. Brazil has had even more rain than Argentina.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/1cpcp8.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/1cpcp15.gif

[cropduster]

Saskfarmer 877-554-2106 my nickel!

[malleefarmer]

sask would you agree crop forecasting is not an exact science
but it always seems crops come in larger than predicted maybe that why its larger than expectations a few months back.
even here in australia it was all doom and gloom i think the crop is over 21m tonne and seems to rise every month.
sept/oct 08 people were talikng 15m tonne here it was never that bad, blind freddy could see that.

h asnt awnsered you question but at least were discussing MARKETING issues or im doing my best from far away....
ive asked before can i have an email address mines blacketp@bigpond.com