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Transparency in Wheat Export Prices is going to get easier

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    Transparency in Wheat Export Prices is going to get easier

    03 REUTERS UPDATE 2-Australia to list wheat futures, seen CBOT complement
    * ASX announces plans to list wheat export futures in May
    * Could be global hard wheat benchmark vs CBOT's soft
    * Strong uptake hoped, but logistics logjam may hurt
    (Writes through, adds byline)
    By Bruce Hextall
    SYDNEY, March 13 (Reuters) - Australia's stock exchange
    operator, ASX Ltd <ASX.AX>, will launch a wheat export futures
    contract this summer, it said on Friday, raising hopes for a new
    global reference price to complement the dominant U.S. marker.
    ASX said on Friday it expected trading in the contract to
    start in May, meeting demand for an export contract that arose
    after Australia liberalised its overseas wheat sales last year,
    opening up the market in one of the world's top five exporters.
    The contract is designed to cover wheat from top exporting
    state Western Australia (WA), which produces high-protein hard
    white wheat, and industry players are hopeful that it would catch
    on quickly among the increasingly competitive Australian trade
    and Asian consumers who import those cargoes.
    "This contract may fill a void quite nicely to help benchmark
    this quality wheat globally," said Garry Booth, a trader at
    commodity brokers MF Global Australia.
    "In a way it is badly overdue -- the West Australia growers,
    the merchants and the buyers of WA grain will find this a superb
    tool as a product to manage risk".
    In an export market that until last summer was a monopoly,
    growers now have 22 licensed exporters they can sell to as well
    as domestic buyers. They are increasingly storing grain on-farm
    until sale rather than delivering into grain pools managed by
    bulk handlers, making the need for risk management more acute.
    The new ASX contract specifies hard wheat -- in contrast to
    the Chicago Board of Trade's soft wheat contract -- and follows
    the introduction of a domestic east coast contract six years ago,
    although that contract <0#AWM:AX> has struggled to catch on.
    "Since the liberalisation of wheat exports, there's an
    opportunity to list a Western Australian contract which will
    service the export market as the main driver," said Dougal
    Hunter, ASX manager of agricultural derivatives.
    "Hopefully anyone with export interests will be able to access
    the contract."
    DROUGHT, LOGISTIC RISKS
    While the state's track record of producing large reliable
    crops should help ensure the contracts mechanics run
    successfully, the contract comes at a time when wheat exports
    from Western Australian ports are being hampered by a lack of
    capacity to move grain from country silos to port.
    That's caused ships to wait for up to five weeks to load
    grain and is causing consternation from importers who fear their
    cargoes will arrive too late.
    CBH Group, which handles most of the state's grain, says it
    hopes to have a system in place by August to better manage
    shipping queues but investment in rail infrastructure is needed
    to overcome the transport bottlenecks.
    And while MF Global's Booth said he doesn't expect the
    contract to experience problems similar to those at the CBOT,
    where there has been poor convergence between cash and futures
    prices due to a surge in speculative trading, it remains to be
    seen how quickly liquidity builds behind the new contract.
    At delivery, futures and cash prices have traditionally
    converged to match, as grain moves or leaves shipping points
    based on normal market currents. Grain hedgers say the CBOT
    contracts, in particular its wheat contract, are broken.
    The new Australian contract will cover wheat delivered to the
    Kwinana port zone in Western Australia and will be 20 tonnes. The
    listing is subject to regulatory approvals.
    Western Australia has exported more than 3.6 million tonnes
    of the state's 12.3 million tonnes 2008/09 grain harvest, of
    which 8.9 million tonnes was wheat.
    ASX already offers an Australian milling wheat contract that
    covers eastern Australia, and trade has accelerated over the past
    year as the wheat belt emerged from two years of severe drought
    that crippled exports and halved the normal crop size.
    "In the last three months more than 400,000 tonnes a month
    had traded, which is the most since before the drought," ASX's
    Hunter said.
    Volume trade in the last three months was 53 percent higher
    than the same period a year ago, reflecting a recovery in
    Australia's wheat production from a 13.0 million tonnes crop in
    2007/08 as well as more participation by growers following the
    liberalisation of the wheat trade.

    #2
    Will it be traded in US dollars or Australian dollars?

    Comment


      #3
      That is excellent.

      Comment


        #4
        Speaking of records, the CWB is up their usual spin. The problem is that, as of week 32, CWB exports of wheat, durum and barley are actually 700,000 tonnes BEHIND last year. And last year was a pretty crappy year. How does the CWB define "record movement"? And they accuse others of twisting the data?

        WINNIPEG (Dow Jones)--The Canadian Wheat Board is seeing record grain
        movement this winter and should be able to continue that pace through spring, a
        CWB spokeswoman said.

        From October through February, the CWB cleared a total of 7.7 million metric
        tons of grain, including wheat, durum, and barley - well above the 10-year
        average of 6.8 million tons for the period, said Maureen Fitzhenry, CWB media
        relations manager.

        In February alone, the CWB moved 1.0 million tons of grain through the west
        coast, which compares with the 10-year average of 778,000 tons. She added that
        weekly railcar unloads in Vancouver came in above 3,800 cars during the past
        week, well above normal levels closer to 2,400 to 2,500 cars.

        The winter rail program, which moves western Canadian grain to export
        positions in the East, should also come in above the 10-year average of 8,701
        cars, or 696,080 tons and the previous record of 9,806 cars, or 784,480 tons,
        said Fitzhenry.

        She added that the actual numbers for the 2008-09 (August-July) winter rail
        program were not yet available.

        Grain movement for the CWB got off to a slow start in 2008-09 due to tight
        carry-in supplies from the previous year. However, once the large new-crop
        supplies became available, activity picked up considerably in October.

        "It has been really important that the program be ramped up in the
        post-harvest period," said Fitzhenry.

        She said the record pace of grain movement over the winter months had more to
        do with the transportation system than the CWB itself.

        "We want to give credit where credit is due, and the railways have been
        performing very well for us this year," said Fitzhenry. "Our presumption is
        that due to the economic recession, all movement in the other sectors that use
        rail transportation is considerably reduced, so there are more crews and more
        cars for grain," she said.

        "Not only are we seeing more car availability, but when there are delays
        because of weather, the railways' ability to catch up is much better than we've
        seen in the past as well," said Fitzhenry. She added that railcar turnaround
        has been considerably faster than average.

        While the October-February period is normally the peak time for CWB grain
        movement, "there is a strong possibility that March will be bigger than
        February and April will be bigger than March," said Fitzhenry.

        She said CWB analysts were expecting to see the strong pace continue through
        June but added that volatile global market conditions could change that
        outlook.

        Comment


          #5
          But for this great record the farmer take home on average is down from last year.
          Yes he has more to sell but the average farmer is in the same boat as last year.
          We've come along way BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          Comment


            #6
            Yeah, it's a wonderful record with the lowest prices ever, in adjusted for inflation dollars , and the highest cost of production. Canola truly is a cinderella crop. Chemical and seed companies love it.

            Comment


              #7
              Yes agstar, we all know you can't do basic math there's no need to keep reinforcing it.

              Comment


                #8
                Aussie dollars. Contracts specifications below.

                http://www.asx.com.au/products/futures/grain/specs_O_AWM.htm

                Comment


                  #9
                  Previous link was options. Here is the futures specifications.

                  http://www.asx.com.au/products/futures/grain/specs_AWM.htm

                  Comment


                    #10
                    agstar77

                    Is there an organization that represents the interests of the whole wheat
                    supply chain? Does it have a written and publicly available strategic plan
                    that sets targets for success agreed to by the entire supply chain?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      No, just a group that has a political agenda mixed in with some truth. There should be a unifying group but because of political differences the factions can't get along.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Agstar, canola will pay the vast majority of bills on most farms unlike board grains. And it will in 2009 as well.Run the numbers, canola will net $50/ac over any board grain for '09.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Yes it will but guess what the industry loves us farmers we keep over producing and our price just keeps going down down down. Watch if we grow the 16 million acre crop and the south gets a decent crop look out can you say bellow 8.00 look their is 7.00 oh crap here comes 6.00. (Yes you can forward price etc etc etc). But now throw in the Americans who can grow Soya without a lot of expensive fertilizer and oh crap the whole oilseed market goes to h e double hockey sticks.
                          Corn and Wheat are the sleepers. Am I the only one who doesn't see the mess that is coming.
                          The only ones who really really do good on us idiots growing a huge canola crop are the FERT CHEM SEED GRAIN AND DEALER NETWORKS.
                          To many acres of Canola and were all sitting ducks.
                          But again the seed reps I am talking to say sales are down quite a bit. So who's telling the tale. Farmers or the ones who want us to seed wall to wall.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            That could be a problem for those who don't want to hedge AUD/USD.

                            Comment

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