Canola Acreage in 2009?

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok some thing is wrong with this picture, the industry thinks this huge crop is going to be seeded. Yet when you to to Viagra Pioneer dekalb,Bayer, Monsanto, they all say seed sales are down?
So lets have a survey?

08 seeded canola 09 seeded canola. Sask

Ours 3000 Projected 2700 SASK

This is due to two quarters over because dont want to push my rotation on these two.

[furrowtickler]

Our farm will be down 20% due to crop rotation.
Ron made a good point, in some areas certain cereals are about even with canola in terms of returns. Last month canola at $10/bus was a clear winner but today it is a closer race.
I agree S/F, most seed sales are down unless Cargil has moved a swack, Pioneer sales up some but relativly low market share.
Local seed treating plant(Brett Young,Canterra, Monsanto-old seed blending,) has not turned a wheel in two weeks. They are normaly running flat out 16 hrs a day through march.
My guess canola acres slightly less than last year with yeilds down 10-20% due to last years near perfect growing season for most of western Canada. JMO

[boarderbloke]

still recovering from our big push in canola acres in 2007, and to a lesser degree 2008. our farm will be down roughly 15% from last year.
SF, ever wonder if the retailers talk down their seed sales, just to make the planting picture a little brighter, for you/us the customer??? I do! The reason why I think so, is that I NEVER see the discount for canola SEED purchases increasing as we get closer to spring. The other reason is that the major players selling seed are the same companies exporting or crushing your harvest, so what benefit would there be for them to be straight up with you/us on there seed sales??? It's Business!

[charliep]

Has anyone put some numbers to the consumption side? This year Canadian canola disappearance will amount to about 12 mln tonnes - slight increase in July 31, 2009 carryover from previous year but not a lot/far below what everyone forecast last fall.

More crush capacity coming on line (expansion Clavet plus capacity at Yorkton. Will China back off on its purchases 2009/10 - still want vegoil with meal being more iffy. Crude oil/bio diesel? Consumer trends to healthy oils? Transfat issue in foods?

I put 16 mln acres together with a 31 bu yield (5 year average) to come up with about 11 mln tonnes of production. don't see any problem in selling a crop of this size.

[R23O]

09 acres 925 or so .08 acres 1350 .To much stuff looks better then Canola so it is as low as We can go and still keep a decent rotation .

[lesm]

08 had 3100 acres. 09 will be 2500 acres, again due to rotations.

[furrowtickler]

I agree with your numbers charlie, I think you will be very close. That 17 mill acres was pie in the sky.

[charliep]

I wouldn't fall in love with any of these numbers because no knows. The reason I like to work backwards from what is needed and from there what is likely to be produced (with some recognition actual number will be different.

Those outside Clavet and Yorkton will have a better idea than I do how far along this new crush capacity is. Having said that, I suspect that will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 5.5 MMT (4.5 MMT in current crop year). Hard export demand (not including China and other price sensitive markets) is likely around 4 MMT (2 MMT Japan, Mexico 1.5 MMT, US/Other 500,000 tonnes). Dockage - 500,000 tonnes.

You can spin yields/acres as you want (no one knows) but the important thing is there is close to 10 MMT of core canola demand that needs to be satisfied.

[charliep]

Not canola but interesting comments in Agweb today.

Economist: 2009-10 Corn Consumption May Require 87 Million Acres Planted this Season
3/17/2009


AgWeb.com Editors

Corn consumption during the 2009-10 marketing year could reach 12.5 billion bushels, said Darrel Good, University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"The 2009 crop would need to be near 12.2 billion bushels to support consumption at that level," Good said. "Assuming a trend yield of 152.8 bushels, 79.8 million acres of corn would need to be harvested to produce 12.2 billion bushels. About 87 million acres of corn would need to be planted in 2009, then, to meet expected consumption.

"The market likely believes that less than 87 million acres of corn will be needed in 2009 since a trend yield above 152.8 bushels is generally assumed. Each bushel above 152.8 reduces the needed acreage by about 500,000."

source: http://www.agweb.com/get_article.aspx?pageid=149809

[redbaron]

2008 we had 1900 acres. 2009 we will be around 600. Rotation is an issue and is for most of my neighbours. Also the numbers game - better returns from some other crops.

[SASKFARMER3]

Does one think the industry is not going to get the supply they need?

[macdon02]

2700 for 09 and 2100 in 08, rotation was a little heavy on oats and wheat last year, feel like the odd man out.

[sawfly]

1100 in 08 to 800 in 09
rotation constraints

[sawfly]

how independent is canola price from soybeans?
from the numbers here, you sure can't see canola acres going up
a lot of farmers stick to their rotation, they will have normal acres in. the rest that maxed out canola last year will have to back off.

Except for the beans maybe canola is the sleeper

[SASKFARMER3]

We need more volume on this site to come to that conclusion but yes it looks like most guys will cut back 15 to 22% because of rotation. To me I dont know one guy who is increasing acres. But we do know one thing Soyabeans are going to be wall to wall in USA. Great keep submitting. Oh Larry maybe that's a good question on Fertilizer buddy?