It will cost you 447 tax. Ag-Chieve marketing seminar. Secrets of Successful Grain Marketing. I didn't know these were secrets. These are the same guys that called the grain market so well last year. Does anyone plan to attend these seminars? Do you have to take an oath of secrecy when signing up? L.O.L.
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Dear Charlie,
1. Know what your costs are.
2. Be patient.
3. Know what production you have.
4. If an actual good profit is available... that others involved agree is a good decision... IS.
5. Know what your risk is on the cost and production variability on your production.
6. Do Not Be Greedy.
7. Use the lowest cost risk management possible... giving this risk to others in the marketing chain... especially when they are willing to mitigate risk at low cost that is affordable.
8. Do Not Think of yourself as 'smarter' than anyone else...
9. If it seems 'to good to be true'... 99.9% of the time you will be right!
10. Many councilors and information sources... are good... are key.
11. Hard work and diligent self- discipline give the best results.
12. There is no such thing as 'good luck'. Achievable plans... that effectively understand the above... make opportunities.
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Know your Market History. How do you know how information will effact the market if you understand some history behind it.
What does 660 million tonnes of World Wheat Production really mean? Or what does 15Million Acres of Canola and Canada really mean? They are just numbers unless you have tracked their history.
You can't make your decisions based on history, but it goes along way to helping you understand what needs to happen in the future from a supply and demand perspective.
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I think it is important to know what quality you have for sale. Know what the degrading factors are and how much. Know exactaly your protien content and that it is being checked properly and accurately. Know what your dockage is and that it is being assesed properly.
This will give you barganing power for blending etc. Just because you go where you get the best deal might not mean that it is the BEST deal.
It always amazes me when guys say "the best I can get is #2" but they don't know why or what the degrading factor even looks like or what the content is.
To me it is like running around with a bag full of money bills, letting everyone count it and selling it to the one that offers you the most. I think I would count it first and know exactaly what I had, how many 100's, 50's, 20's etc.
Quality and quantity.
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agstar: Marketing seminars are designed to make you a better gambler. Trouble is that the grain companies and the other traders are dealing with a "marked deck", but they don't tell you that.
These pushes, pulls, hedges, margin calls, etc., etc., are all part of the stock market trader lexicon used by those who have lived off of the farmer for the past 100 years or so. The methods that they teach are right from the book of "LEECH" where these experts have honed their techniques. Then they have the nerve to call their techniques "secrets" and then charge you money so that you can become one of THEM (as if they will let you fully join their little club).
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Wilagro
Would this explain why the CWB lost $326 mln on their risk management activities in 2007/08?
Curious that both Agstar77 and yourself would hold the CWB as operating the ideal market strategy. What is the CWB does and can it by applied by farmers in the open market.
I would suspect the answers would be around market discipline, using the knowledge to allocate marketable supplies to the highest priced customers, averaging sales through the year, etc. Maybe I am missing something.
Will also note that the CWB farm business representatives are working with farmers to help them use the producer payment options more effectively (Fort Saskatchewan - April 1). Perhaps the CWB is trying to share the secret of better marketing.
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So charlie,when you tell producers to buy options as a hedge on one thread and then bitch about the cwb and its hedging strategies on another,where exactly is the line of hypocrit vs good management?
Best two marketing quotes i know=
Be right sit tight
Buy low sell high
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Perhaps you are right.
What I do know is everyone is different on this website and in your community. Having a different tools that allow individual managers to make decisions based on the needs/philosophy is a thing. My sense (in all your personas) is that you are well off/can afford to take risk. That may not apply to everyone.
But then we would have to agree with a definition of risk (which is both opportunity and negative consequences). Perhaps that is the key to the secret that is being talked about here.
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pilpilsner,
You seem to be a CWB supporter.
It is obvious that the actual COST of a particular risk management strategy... is crytical to the determination of the decision to make a market move.
If hedging costs more 'risk' than doing nothing... and selling cash... why would you hedge?
If you can't sell cash grain... that is a whole different situation... which in turn is the real problem with the CWB ppo system... the CWB prevents transparent global cash price signals from reaching the farmgate in western Canada.
Buying options costs money... as does being a part of CWB pools. I should have the opportunity to opt out of both.
pilpilsner... how much money did your hedges cost in 2008?
Why shouldn't the CWB be forced to explain why they were so far from reaching the targets they themselves set on hedges?
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