Help Again - Forage Prices

[charliep]

any thoughts on forage/hay prices. I am hearing $100/short ton around Edmonton (good quality 50/50 alfalfa grass). This rises to $130 to $140/short ton in southern Alta. Dairy quality alfalfa? Same questions for greenfeed/silage.

As a way to get discussion going, I think we are going to have a bigger fibre portion of ration (straw, hay, silage) problem this year than energy (US corn/domestic wheat will replace barley) and protein (small portion of most rations/plentiful protein supplies). Another interesting thought is that feed peas are likely to get put into rations this year as an energy source versus protein.

[melvill]

I've heard a couple of recent bids on standing wheat (under irrigation) for forage. One bid was $75/ton and the other was $80/ton - both standing for greenfeed 30 miles north of Brooks! Non-irrigated wheat or barley, that aren't already being grazed, are pretty well too far advanced in many places to make into greenfeed.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Was at a meeting 2 days ago at Leduc.

Quoted auction prices of $14.00/bale horse quality, small square!!

South of Leduc very short on hay, $160/bale big round.

This fellow said that he sold his small squares to a neighbour at the good neighbour price of $6.00/bale.

He got less than 20% of last years production on the same cut!!!

[cowman]

We all know there is going to be a shortage of feed this winter. At what price do people finally decide to unload their livestock? I suspect it will be around eighty/ton for hay. Much more than this and you have to ask yourself why am I doing this? I think you will see a massive kill-down of the cow herd this fall...there really is no other solution! And when the factory(the mother cow) is gone there will be fewer feeder calves for sale and down the road a smaller market for barley. Where will all that surplus barley go?

[TOM4CWB]

Cowman,

Straw and cheap feed wheat, look at the CWB feed wheat rip off on the above topic, and you will see it is easy to lock in a reasonable feed ration today!!

There is going to be gobs of straw, and we are assured a good second cut of hay in Central Alberta with the monsoons we have had in the last week!!!

All the first cut that has had the monsoons will now be worth less than $80/t!!!!

Besides, grain growers grow grain that makes no sense economically, yet they still produce.

Do you really think Cow Calf folks are really any different????

[cowman]

TOM:
You might be right about wheat and straw but I doubt many will try this. A lot of cow/calf production is by small producers and it doesn't make economic sense to go to the extra trouble or expense to feed these rations. Maybe it will just be a culling of the smaller and older producers and younger and larger producers will pick up the slack. I think this has happened in the grain industry over the last twenty years or so.
The second cut looks promising but the first cut was a complete disaster! We should also remember the "horse herd",which makes no sense economically, will be fed no matter the cost!!! And it is a very sizable "herd"! Most of these horses are never rode...their sole purpose in life seems to be to eat!!!
I don't know why farmers continue to produce when they get so little in return. I think it is like some sort of disease or mental disorder we all have!
If I was a younger man I'd chuck it and get into the oilfield where you can make a buck! Unfortunately I also have a son who has caught the farming bug and I can't bring myself to deny him his chance! So I guess I'll be plowing along for a few more years!

[TOM4CWB]

cowman,

Looks like west central Alberta is getting wet!!!

If we could only get the first cut out of the way, a great second cut could help these problems.

Pastures are really starting to grow well now!!!

[charliep]

Talked to my brother (Calgary area) and ranchers are up buying standing crop barley and wheat for green feed for $50 to $60/t.