2010 fertilizer

[Kodiak]

We're all busy as can be at this time of year, but I'm wondering about 2010 Nitrogen needs. Market opportunities won't wait until I have more time! I haven't asked my dealer, but I suspect there is no way to price next year's N now. But my gut tells me its going to be higher when we do. I took a look at the natural gas futures, and I'm wondering about going long futures. The risk of it dropping much more is pretty limited. If natural gas rises N will too, although I realize its not a perfect one to one relationship. Could it be a way to hedge 2010 N, even though a bit of a sloppy way? There will be currency risk, but we have that anyway since N is priced around the world in $US.

What are other's thoughts on this?

[SASKFARMER3]

Most dealers are pst at the Fert Companies and wont fall for their BS again this summer when orders are put in. Last year they were left out to dry on their own with the sudden drop in prices. The Fert companies just took their profits and ran. So I would get your cash ready for around harvest time till Xmas their will be some very good deals. Take home or fall band.

[poorboy]

I also would think that there will be buying oportunities for 2010 crop that will be much cheaper than now.

The global urea market is very soft and most of that cheap price has not been seen by Canadian farmers. Phosphate prices have also dropped a lot but not seen by many either.

Dealers still have lots of unsold, high price inventory that they have to unload this spring. Next fall prices should be way cheaper because the dealers will have no expensive inventory, the global credit situation is causing lots of countries to not purchase as much fertilizer, and the global outlook for many industries is not very rosy.

[pilpilsner]

There are some good 10% divedend paying oil companies on the market that would work well for fuel and fertilizer,although they have been making some solid gains of late.

But i doubt a teetottler would want a drunks advice