how will this end?

[jensend]

will n and p follow or will the potash cartel be broken?

http://www.financialpost.com/magazine/story.html?id=1507358

[countryguy]

Utterly sickening.. From what I can tell their little game will be over in about six weeks,right after they see how much they are going to sell this spring.Every farmer I know is not using any and telling them to stick their product where the sun don't shine.

" Potash can't be priced like a commodity because it's food", or whatever the hell he said. What the hell is that? We have to guarantee them a profit and them sell our product which is actually food as a commodity??
BULLSHIT!!!! Last I checked you don't eat fertilizer!! I am LIVID

[Hopperbin]

"The company claims, for example, that each $100-per-tonne increase in the price of potash adds a mere three cents to the cost of a bushel of corn, and that each dollar spent on fertilizer returns $3 worth of improved crop yields."

I don't get 3 dollars back for every dollar I spend on inputs. All inputs and costs(Machinery etc.) must must be priced together for the desired payback. Its no where near 3 dollars.

[dave4441]

What percentage of their sales are to Canada? I am guessing what happens here really does not matter. If you are targeting 200 bu corn yields I would guess that price of POT is not as much of a factor. We spend our fert dollars on Nitrogen and Phos second. Never used potash before.

[jensend]

they say tough economies are good for oligopolies. if that's the case (and we're seeing more consolidation in the n. american fertilizer market) then it might get worse before it gets better. companies of bigger scale will more likely have access to capital to weather this recession and will try to gain more market power.

[ado089]

Canada is just a drop in the bucket when it comes to potash, but we are their gravy. Unless you farm beach sand or peat it's really not neaded on the prairies, we benefit more from the chloride in it than the pottasium and I'm sure there is cheaper ways to get that now. All big ag.buis. has there head so far up where the sun doesn't shine with faulty population growth numbers, unrealistic GDP growth in emerging markets and a general disragard for farm economics. The reality is that China and India will buy food if it's cheaper than buying potash or build their own mines over here or in Rusia. They will fall on thier sword yet due to their arrogance.