Impact of a week of 25 to 30 degree temperatures

[charliep]

Thanks for you comments on crop conditions Cowman, Ian, Crusher, Tom and Chas. Keep those comments coming (as Brenda indicated, comparisons with previous years/normal yields is usefull). I am most interested in the later crops.

No comments on markets other than the typical zigs and zags as the market gets used to a tighter feed grain situation. As a feed grain user, I would be using the current dip (around $3/bu Oct./Nov.) to buy cash feed barley as a mechanism to have supply commitment. A word of warning is the spot market has not come down (still $154/t Lethbridge).

Nervousness in the canola market is mainly soybean related but I suspect the market is going to have to deal more with our own situation during August. The million dollar question is which side of 5 MMT production will be.

Wheat remains frustrating. Slow export program out of the US is the major factor.

Grain companies are starting to show interest in yellow peas edibles at or close to $5/bu. Look for a good sized export program this fall. A note to take advantage of it as demand will slow in the winter (Aussie crop on scene/India harvest). Feeds will perk up with the feed grain market (start thinking of peas as an energy source). My suspicion is there would be a lot of nice bright green peas this year (lots of bleaching). If you are lucky enough to win the quality lottery on greens, look for good premiums to yellows.

Lentils watch quality distribution. Lairds the most optimistic on price - small seeded and reds the least.

Canary seed and mustards - prices on move higher. Not enough supplies.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

The past week of warmer temps has really helped the spread in germination dates, if it stays hot we have a fighting chance to get some sort of reasonable quality.

Early seeded barley is starting to come second growth, I guess swathing it can end that problem if one could avoid the rain.

Our first cut of hay is a reck, but the second cut is really coming along nice, with the water and heat we have had at Edmonton.

Killam is getting dry, but this is OK now, as ripening and filling the last bit doesn't take much water, and this helps quality by drying off and finishing off the late plants.

If we get two more weeks of this weather, we might get harvesting by the end of this month!!

[cowman]

charliep:
Here at Red Deer the barley is starting to turn and I would say yields will be about average. Silage is coming off with some pretty good yields. Wheat looks good and the canola crop should be good if the frost holds off. Starting to see a lot of wild oats. A lot of guys say the spray didn't work. No major bug problems yet. You don't have to go very far south from here and it gets dry real quick. Pastures are fair now but a lot of them were hurt by being grazed hard earlier. Lots of calves coming off cows and going to the auction mart. Prices are excellent!

[wedino]

Heat here is bringing harvest on fast. Will be swathing barley & canola before week is over, may try a round on canola today. No good crops of canola in this area, my guess is 25 bu/acre is best. Barley looks good,(not sure about fusarium) wheat is plagued with fusarium & durum is worse with over 50% of heads gone from MB border over as far as Radville (heard this from hail adjuster - very large area) Yields will be down due to guys skimping on fertilizer this spring - very easy to notice fields that are short of N.

[charliep]

Thanks for the comment from Manitoba. Anyone tuning in from Sask. I looked for Sask Agr and Food crop report but couldn't find the most recent. Sounds like they have pretty low yield estimates. I am also concerned about the impact of recent rains on lentil/green pea quality (kinda goes with the expression nothing is so bad it can't get worst). Thoughts.

[wedino]

Charlie, I'm from Se Sk. Weyburn area. Sask ag & food crop predictions are overly optimistic IMHO.

[charliep]

Sorry the mistake in location Wedino. The Sask Agr. site is at http://www.agr.gov.sk.ca/docs/reports/crop_report/crprpt010807.asp?firstPick=Reports&secondPick=Crop %20Report. The Alberta site is http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/economic/stats/listcrop.html and Manitoba is http://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/news/mwcr/mwcr.html.

[hsiemens]

From the Red River Valley in Altona, MB where we quickly became the edible bean capital of Canada. Last year, 240,000 acres, down to about 220,000 this year. The crop was headed for a bumper, but heavy rains at the end of July killed that notion. Losses are mounting everyday as beans disappear due to drowning, yellowing and now disease. Some of the larger growers, Froese Ent. Winkler 2700 acres feel they may have lost 40 percent of their crop. Again as always, only time will tell.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

There are a number of Canola fields that came back in bloom last week!

This could be a real mess unless we get some hot hot weather to blast things off and finish the crops, same with our wheat! The CPS second crop is blooming now, and in some fields I see a third crop just comming in head!

[charliep]

I apologize for keeping this question alive but having a good handle on crop conditions is absolutely critical this year with both feed grains and canola in short supply.

Crop condition on both corn and soybean came down yesterday (report is released every Monday). Still an average crop but less yield potential. Most of you likely get this information in your morning newsletters but the USDA web site for looking at the actual report is http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/todayold.htm

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Swathed my first quarter of Canola at Killam, it was from dead ripe to blooming in the same field!

On average it looks like an average crop, if real good weed control practices were implemented.

[gallard]

Barley crops in this valley east of Red Deer are tuning very quickly because of the heat. 6-row with a good stand appears to see kernel shrinkage even though in early. Canola in in April on zero-till has about 5-10% color change with not much variance over the 1/4. Yield will lilely be down 15% from last year. CPS wheat has great strips but the 7/10's of rain Tues night will fill the greens. Yields in wheat will likely be 20% less than last year. Pastures are holding if not over grazed.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

We woke with a big bang this morning at 6:00am, sounded like a busy golf driving range was raining golf balls on the roof.

30-40% damage on some canola fields.

I guess we should have known all this hot weather would bring hail!

[charliep]

Sorry to hear about the hail Tom4cwb. I don't know how many more challenges we can throw at this crop. Canadian yields are going to be very interesting this year. The other factor that is hard to get a handle on is the harvested versus seeded relationship. I don't think we will have a good handle on anything until the Dec. Statscan production estimates.

The other factor to watch will be the Statscan July 31 stocks reports. Based on the feel of the market, carryover supplies are likely tighter than what has been indicated in previous years estimates. As an example, a 2.5 MMT July 31, 2001 carryover would have major implications for this coming year. Stay tuned.