beans

[cottonpicken]

What i think is about to happen.
Were going to collapse to the 10.75 level,scare the hell out of everyone,then make the breach of 12 bucks and challenge the new highs.

Of course short term forecasting is crazy.

Major influences on this-usdx,bonds,oil and gold.

And china gets its beans for free.

[parsley]

You're back, cott! And how was your trip to Iraq? LOL How was the water hosing? Fingernails intact?

Do you grow beans and if so, what kind? Talked to a guy yestdy from US who wants lots and lots of beans.

Has money. Will pay. Picky with who he does business with.
Pars.

[cottonpicken]

Somebody gave the powers that be a get out of jail free card for me.Thank you.

I now promise not to attack people who:

-solicit money from farmers to further their own stupid ideas
-give out ridicouls economic info on the current state
-take something from someone who produced it
-give out nonsencical market forecasts based on no thought and no evidence
-have a general defeatist attitude on agriculture as a whole
-try and hide or conceal or sensor open debate

I believe that list covers everybody i have ever offended on this site.

Weird how i was the one that got the boot.

[timm]

What percent sold old and new crop canola r u recommending

[charliep]

Will take up the challenge.

First comment is I will base on a generic (whatever that is). Market plans have to reflect a business needs and can't be one size fits all.

Suspect I would be 100 % sold out old crop but many will be carrying 20 to 25 % inventory unpriced (a good situation to be in). To quote friends over time, farmers should be down to gambling stocks only - stuff you can afford to play the summer weather markets with.

New crop - would like to be 20 to 40 % priced of expected production at something in the $9.50 to $10/bu range with a driver knowing what cash flow requirements are this fall. Reason for this recommendation is not because I know this will be a good price this fall but rather because I don't know/can't forecast the future with certainty.

[charliep]

To add some interest, going to put the links in for a November and weekly continous chart.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CA/B9

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CA/W

[charliep]

Asked the question before but how do you consider cost of carry in evaluating marketing decisions?

To put into context, I think a person who took $9/bu in Oct./Nov. is better financially than a farmer who takes $10/bu in June/July. My assumption I want a 1 1/2 % monthly return on investment to justify storing (0.5 % interest and 1 % to cover storage/risk). 1 1/2 % over 8 months is 12 % or $1.08.

[timm]

Storage risk on my 40000 bu 40000 dollars ...I don't think so...needed bins anyway for oct storage.10.50 bu avail.today

[charliep]

Just making the point it costs money to carry grain in storage.
Opportunity cost of having your money tied in in grain inventory
versus cash bank/debt paid. Even at 6 % interest rates (.5
%/month), the cost of holding 8 months is $16/tonne.

Cost of granaries - you are closer to it than I am but I would put
the cost of 5,000 bu bin at close to $10,000 with a hopper
bottom one closer to $15,000. Recognize you have bins
regardless but sales off the combine/no storage for as much
grain as possible keeps this cost down.

Finally if I was taking storage (heating, theft, etc.), I would want
to be paid for it.

[timm]

More on farm grain and fert storage only way to go ...last year made it glaringly ovious..its all about independance charlie.

[ado089]

Charlie has a very good point, money can be put to work other ways and I don't know about you guys but there isn't much more of a sickening feeling than looking out the window in Jan and seeing all the bins but one have frost on them. If you're concerened about missing market movement buy an option and play market moves on paper.

[checking]

Someone must have a better ponzi scheme than I can find to achieve those eight month interest rates off not storing/storing grain! That carry cost really depends on when you began accumulating your granery space. Not very long ago a 2000 bushel unassembled hopper bin had a price tag of $1200.00 for the hopper, $700.00 for a skid, and $1900.00 for the bin. At farm auction, I believe I can more than break even on them. Best advise I ever heard was from a Redriver farmer. He achieved his position of, "one in the bank, one in the bins, and one in the field." If anyone is truly saying you need every produced bushel to cover your costs, won't store, has to be delivered off the combine, or buy paper, I think you are in the wrong business.

[ado089]

So you're saying last year if you would have sold your canola @ $16/bu but you though it was going higher so you buy a 60 cent option and even though you didn't exercixe that option you still net $15.40 you're not as smart as the guy that held out for $x/bu and is now sitting on $9/bu canola. Give me a break. Growing the crop is the easy part, selling it is where the dollars are made. A hunting friend of mine says "a bird in hand is worth 10 on the wing" You're in the wrong buisness if you're not taking advantage of these risk management tools and there isn't another industry out there that aims to cary any more inventory than needed. Cash is king and it's not always about earning intrest on it, it could be saving 7% for early buying seed or in most year a few hundred dollars on early buy fert, a hot stock tip or even a cash sale on more bins. Your imagination is the only limitation on what you can do with cash but you're pretty limited with what you can do with a bin full of canola. Even if you're deffering money you're not on the hook for storage risk.

[timm]

My neighbour sold canola off combine 40 something basis then rolled a couple of times ..ended up with 70 dollar basis ...sold few weeks ago net 8.50 bu all because of lack of storage.he's building 4. 600000 bu bins as I type.

[pilpilsner]

I've got a hold position on canola
But that nia dyodd
I like the one in bank one in the field and one in the bin advice