beans

[cottonpicken]

What i think is about to happen.
Were going to collapse to the 10.75 level,scare the hell out of everyone,then make the breach of 12 bucks and challenge the new highs.

Of course short term forecasting is crazy.

Major influences on this-usdx,bonds,oil and gold.

And china gets its beans for free.

[parsley]

You're back, cott! And how was your trip to Iraq? LOL How was the water hosing? Fingernails intact?

Do you grow beans and if so, what kind? Talked to a guy yestdy from US who wants lots and lots of beans.

Has money. Will pay. Picky with who he does business with.
Pars.

[cottonpicken]

Somebody gave the powers that be a get out of jail free card for me.Thank you.

I now promise not to attack people who:

-solicit money from farmers to further their own stupid ideas
-give out ridicouls economic info on the current state
-take something from someone who produced it
-give out nonsencical market forecasts based on no thought and no evidence
-have a general defeatist attitude on agriculture as a whole
-try and hide or conceal or sensor open debate

I believe that list covers everybody i have ever offended on this site.

Weird how i was the one that got the boot.

[timm]

What percent sold old and new crop canola r u recommending

[charliep]

Will take up the challenge.

First comment is I will base on a generic (whatever that is). Market plans have to reflect a business needs and can't be one size fits all.

Suspect I would be 100 % sold out old crop but many will be carrying 20 to 25 % inventory unpriced (a good situation to be in). To quote friends over time, farmers should be down to gambling stocks only - stuff you can afford to play the summer weather markets with.

New crop - would like to be 20 to 40 % priced of expected production at something in the $9.50 to $10/bu range with a driver knowing what cash flow requirements are this fall. Reason for this recommendation is not because I know this will be a good price this fall but rather because I don't know/can't forecast the future with certainty.

[charliep]

To add some interest, going to put the links in for a November and weekly continous chart.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CA/B9

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CA/W

[charliep]

Asked the question before but how do you consider cost of carry in evaluating marketing decisions?

To put into context, I think a person who took $9/bu in Oct./Nov. is better financially than a farmer who takes $10/bu in June/July. My assumption I want a 1 1/2 % monthly return on investment to justify storing (0.5 % interest and 1 % to cover storage/risk). 1 1/2 % over 8 months is 12 % or $1.08.

[timm]

Storage risk on my 40000 bu 40000 dollars ...I don't think so...needed bins anyway for oct storage.10.50 bu avail.today

[charliep]

Just making the point it costs money to carry grain in storage.
Opportunity cost of having your money tied in in grain inventory
versus cash bank/debt paid. Even at 6 % interest rates (.5
%/month), the cost of holding 8 months is $16/tonne.

Cost of granaries - you are closer to it than I am but I would put
the cost of 5,000 bu bin at close to $10,000 with a hopper
bottom one closer to $15,000. Recognize you have bins
regardless but sales off the combine/no storage for as much
grain as possible keeps this cost down.

Finally if I was taking storage (heating, theft, etc.), I would want
to be paid for it.

[timm]

More on farm grain and fert storage only way to go ...last year made it glaringly ovious..its all about independance charlie.