A question for monopoly supporters

[Fransisco]

Then there is this final slap in the farmers face...

"The board will end up taking 80 percent of the durum contracted this year. She doubts growers would want the CWB to take all the durum available and dump it on the market at bargain basement prices amounting to a small premium over feed wheat."

At Berthold ND they are offering $7.25 a bushel to their farmers there right now. Just a tad better than feed I'd say, and a whole lot better than $0 the board is going to give you for your last 20% of production

http://www.bertholdfarmers.com/

[silverback]

83 cents a bushel from Lethbridge to Montana - by Truck ?

That is hilarious.

Maybe she got Lethbridge and Churchill, MB mixed up a little.

[LWeber]

Why use Montana?

Fortuna, North Dakota - population 31
7 miles from the SK border and within 100 miles of the heart of the durum growing area in western Canada

The dollar conversion is 1.1196

New crop Durum

USD$7.40 X 1.1196 = 8.28 a BUSHEL locked in NEW CROP in farmer's pocket

THE FPC for SK farmers at Friday's close is $4.60 in their pocket for new crop durum.

The difference is CAD$3.68 a frikkin bushel.

Monopoly power at work.

[bucket]

What the cwb FAILS to understand is this:

If the US exports durum from mid point North Dakota through the PNW its the same as the cwb exporting durum from mid point sask to Vancouver. SO all things being equal the price should be the same leaving all the variables out.

What are the variables? good question grasshopper. Well the freight rates are lower in canada so the price a farmer receives should be higher. The PNW and the cwb asking prices are similar so our price should be higher. The Canadian dollar is lower so our price should be higher.

I just wish someone had an independant thought process at portage and main. Do they really have to have their frickking brains removed to work there.

[farmboy4]

Fransisco, Why do you assume the CWB sales to the US comparison wasn't on an equivalent farmgate basis? Where does the US typically export durum and what quality is typically exported versus the quality they import from Canada?

Bucket, the PNW is not really a relevant market for Durum, the vast majority of US durum that is exported moves through Duluth or the Gulf

[bucket]

Ok lets try mid point sask to st lawrence as a reference then. Sheesh look at the cwb asking prices, the US selling prices, the US elevator price,and then look at what we are getting. Then ask yourself if there is a premium.

Then do the math at a 70% call. To be a premium on the marketing year the first thing you must do is sell 100% to be apples to apples.(famous CWB term - "you must compare apples to apples") The US farmer is allowed to sell 100% of his crop if he chooses, if he gets even 25 cents more per bushel than a canadian farmer he is the one with the premium. Why? Good question grasshopper. Because he has sold all his grain, got paid more than a canadian farmer, no grain to keep in shape for the cwb, no free storage at the farm etc.

As a farmer does no one count building bins as a cost to your business instead of this moronic attitude about how pretty a farmers yard looks with a nice row of bins. The cwb has transferred the cost of storage directly to the farmer and try to call it a marketing premium.

Just try to get it - if the US farmer doesn't have to build extra storage, and is allowed to get rid at or near the same price as a Canadian farmer he is money ahead. BY the way it looks right now the American farmer can sell 100% of his durum and at a higher price than the cwb is paying and they are not waiting for their money for a year.

[parsley]

Okay, already three AV'ers, have emailed me to get me in on some of the fun, thanks, and no Mc, I haven't forgotten about you, either.

Soon. LOL Pars

[charliep]

Sorry Fransisco. Should have left for the CWB guys.

Will help them again though with a document they should be familiar
with (CWB annual statistical report) tables 33-36 or pages 25 to 28.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/about/investor/annual/pdf/07-
08/stats_english2007-08.pdf

10 year average world durum production. 35.6 mln tonnes. Canada
4.5 mln tonnes or about 13 %. US - 2.5 mln tonnes or 7 %.

10 year average world durum trade 7.2 mln tonnes. Canadian
exports - 3.6 mln tonnes or 50 % of world durum trade. US 1.2 mln
tonnes or 17 % of world durum trade.

On the other side, US imports about 600,000 tonnes (mostly if not all
Canada). You can do the percentage world durum trade but looking
at another way, US is about 17 % of Canadian durum exports. The
major durum importing region of the world is North Africa at 4.5 mln
tonnes (10 year average) or 63 % of world trade.

Of the major exporters, Canada holds about 50 % of durum exports.
EU and US each about 25 %. More numbers reflect the fact Canada
and the US carry about 42 % and 36 % respectively of their annual
production as carryover.

All from CWB statistics.

[Fransisco]

Where do US durum exports go?

http://www.ndwheat.com/uploads%5Cresources%5C542%5Cdurum-charts.pdf

Italy, Algeria, Venezuela,Morocco, Nigeria,Tunisia, Costa Rica, Portugal,Dominican Republic, South Africa, Portugal, Netherlands, Switzerland.

In other words Europe, Africa and the Middle East, as well as South America.

But noooo, even though the US exports a whack of durum around the world every year, according to the eggheads at the Board the US elevator price can not possibly have any relation to world prices. Give me a break!!

[charliep]

error alert. Second last paragraph should be durum
carryover - not exports. That is, Canada holds about
50 % of the carryover among the 3 major exporters.

[Fransisco]

No problem charlie, I didn't really think they would answer the question anyways.

[Fransisco]

Larry, have you got a web link for the elevator in Fortuna?