I'll throw in my two bits worth. The major change has been a less optistic vegetable oil outlook (more supplies palm oil than expected and the need to move some of the monster soyoil stocks in the US).
1) What if Canada had grown 6 MMT? Price may have been down some but likely only $10 to $20/t at the outside. Canadian canola has a large demand base (read China) as long as it is competitively priced with other vegetable oils - we can almost sell as much as we want.
2) Will China be there to buy soybeans or canola this winter? This is the billion dollar question. In their drive to improve livestock productivity via improved rations, they have continued large protein needs. Vegoil demand will also continue to grow. They are very price sensitive on the one hand and recognize their influence on prices.
3) I'll take you up on your bet as to whether Canadian canola production will be closer to 4 MMT than 5MMT. If production is less than 4.5 MMT, look for canola prices to rally regardless of other oilseed markets. I'll work the minimum needs demand scenario - domestic crush 2 to 2.2 MMT (capacity 4 MMT/recent years crush around 3 MMT), Japan - steady as a rock around 1.8 MMT historically), Dockage and seed - 400,000 t (8 %), Mexico - how much business is already on the books?, China demand - who cares under this scenario.
4)Too many soybeans? Your question about China/demand is the relavent one here. The question more relevant for canola is growth in world vegetable oil demand.
What are others thoughts on the world oilseed market/canola price outlook?
1) What if Canada had grown 6 MMT? Price may have been down some but likely only $10 to $20/t at the outside. Canadian canola has a large demand base (read China) as long as it is competitively priced with other vegetable oils - we can almost sell as much as we want.
2) Will China be there to buy soybeans or canola this winter? This is the billion dollar question. In their drive to improve livestock productivity via improved rations, they have continued large protein needs. Vegoil demand will also continue to grow. They are very price sensitive on the one hand and recognize their influence on prices.
3) I'll take you up on your bet as to whether Canadian canola production will be closer to 4 MMT than 5MMT. If production is less than 4.5 MMT, look for canola prices to rally regardless of other oilseed markets. I'll work the minimum needs demand scenario - domestic crush 2 to 2.2 MMT (capacity 4 MMT/recent years crush around 3 MMT), Japan - steady as a rock around 1.8 MMT historically), Dockage and seed - 400,000 t (8 %), Mexico - how much business is already on the books?, China demand - who cares under this scenario.
4)Too many soybeans? Your question about China/demand is the relavent one here. The question more relevant for canola is growth in world vegetable oil demand.
What are others thoughts on the world oilseed market/canola price outlook?
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