First Statistics Canada Production Estimate

[charliep]

Just a note to put everyone on alert for the statistics Canada crop production forecast - Tuesday, August 28 - 6:30 MDT. Realizing the survey will have been done the first week of August prior to any harvesting, this will be the first real survey based forecast of how badly the drought has impacted yields/the harvested versus seeded acreage relationship. Stay tuned.

[charliep]

Attached are the Statscan numbers (stolen from the Benson Quinn GMS A.M. alert.

****STATSCAN CROP ESTIMATES*********
*****(All Canada – millions of tonnes)********
Canola = 5.071 (Expected = 4.5-5.1) (LY = 7.119)
Flax = .746 (Exp = .710-.780 ) (LY = .693)
All Wheat = 21.454 (Exp = 21.0-23.0) (LY = 26.804)
Spr. Wheat = 16.791 (Exp = 16.6-17.8) (LY = 19.356)
Wtr. Wheat = 1.591 (Exp = 1.40-1.60) (LY = 1.800)
Durum = 3.071 (Exp = 3.0-3.5) (LY = 5.647)
Oats = 3.049 (Exp = 2.8-3.4) (LY = 3.389)
Barley = 11.602 (Exp = 11.7-12.4) (LY = 13.468)

Oilseeds bigger than expected but market will ignore this a.m. (wouldn't believe/small number relative to demand base). Grains highlight our tight feed situation. I will have to get pea number at work.

[charliep]

Any comments on the Statscan numbers?

If you look at the provincial level, Saskatchewan forecasts reflect the disaster than has occurred there (a little better than 1988/similar to 1989). Alberta production estimates are very similar to last year (after adjusting for acreage). Eg. AB. barley (2000 estimates): harvested versus seeded 82 % (81 %),yield 53.9 bu/ac (56.3 bu/ac.), production 5.2 MMT (5.4 MMT).

Alberta average canola yield - 26.1 bu/ac (26 in 2000).

Alberta average pea yields - 35.5 bu/ac
(35.6 in 2000).

(Thoughts???

[undin]

I would think tha the dry weather throughout alberta has hastened crop maturity,reduced kernal weights in feed grains,resulted in lower yields in all but the most mature crops and evened out the quality of unevenly germed canola. Wheat grades may be better as well. I think statsCan may be a week or two behind in their estimates.