Statistics Canada Acreage Forecast

[charliep]

Statistics Canada acreage estimate out today.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090623/t090623b1-eng.htm

No surprises except perhaps barley (down again). Need to look at the
survey and ask the question what changes occurred on late seeded crop
and re-seeding.

I suspect the market will look at this morning, go who cares and
continue to focus on weather.

Some will get excited about the canola number. What is important now
however is yields and the need side. On the latter, western Canada
needs a 10 million tonne crop to satisfy customer demand.

[SASKFARMER3]

Canola up, came at peas expense, we dropped 200 acres peas.
Oats down quite ab it I guess guys didn't reseed to oats.

[boarderbloke]

SF3, I'm with you on the peas to canola move. The cut in Peas acres, and frost problems will take some pressure off pea prices. I'd still like to know the ratio, yellow / green.
Anyone want to guess what year canola acres will surpass Hard Red Spring?

[SASKFARMER3]

2011
Answer the south and west side of Sask has been able to grow canola for a few years now. They like it, it pays more than HRS or Durum. They will continue to increase acreage. East and north is at maximum rotation.
A drought would stop this increase but if it makes it this year watch out in 2010.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Charlie, can you explain to me where all the acres went and what they are growing. If you add up the acre totals in this report it shows roughly 4.5 million acres have disappeared. In 2005 there were a total of 71.99 million acres that were either seeded or summerfallowed. Yet in 2009 there are only 67.541 million acres. Were they seeded to alfalfa or tame hay? What is the total amount of hay acres? Thank you in advance for your answer.

[Zaphod]

There was a big adjustment made a couple of years ago based on the 2006 census. If I remember right, that was the multi-million acre change. I think that StatsCan isn't adjusting properly for the increase in average farm size.

[Hopperbin]

Boarderbloke my guess is that canola has surpassed Hard Red. Anyone got any info on how much CWSWS wheat is planted? Since that is a totally different wheat class and totally different market it should be listed separately.

[Zaphod]

SWS acreage was listed at 505,000 acres, same as last year.

[Hopperbin]

I would have guess higher but what ever.
In O8 canola acreage was then higher than HRSW.

[fjlip]

According to Larry's stats in this morning email, Manitoba Canola surpassed CWRS in 08 and 09. Sk canola higher than CWRS in 08, but lower this June estimate.
Ab CWRS higher than canola both years. BC is equal acres. All of western provinces CWRS= 17,215,000 acres and canola=15,750,000 acres all June 2009 estimates. Right Larry?

[cottonpicken]

Wheres the lentil numbers?

[charliep]

You have to look at Saskatchewan provincial numbers. Alberta and Manitoba produce only amounts/Statcan doesn't publish on the early rounds.

Statcan said 2.3 mln acres seeded to lentils in Saskatchewan, up from 1.6 in 2008. As indicated previously, yield potential and stage of growth are the issues now. Will have to rely on you guys to comment on those issues.

[dave4441]

Charlie-how many acres in AB. Hearing ranges from 100,000 to 350,000. Any guess?

[stubblejumper]

heard about a guy west of kindersley who reseeded 10,000 acres of canola to durum

[charliep]

Actually not sure what has been seeded in Alberta. Checked
Statistics Canada out for last year and see Alberta is not included for
an individual survey results. Interesting that Statscan does a
breakdown of special crops by type in the last report (2008 below).

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/22-002-x/2008008/t046-eng.pdf

Will have to check the current ARD specialty crop report for 2008.