Did the Rain really Help?

[wd9]

Oh ya, leaf disease. Those cereal crops that looked like they were going to be nice on the way to peg, looked orange on the way back. Don't know how many guys in sask are used to spraying fungicides, but it may be a good year to at least try some. The spray tracks from the road look like it will cut about 1/3 the potential yield.

[redbaron]

Would love to share the moisture. al9 should be driving through the area east of the red river in MB today. Got close to an inch of rain last weekend. Woke up to a little better than three this morning - Saturday. Still raining. So the water is pretty bad on the late seeded crops. The further south you get. The less land you see above the water. The high moisture levels from last fall are not helping either. The past week gave us some hope. We had moisture, the heat finally came and the crops where really moving forward. So a slap in the face again. I know we all have our own situations to deal with. From past experiences you always have part of a crop with to much moisture. Yet we all know we do not survive with part of a crop anymore.

[Hopperbin]

Dam wheat is on steroids here. That is about it. everything is later but the wheat is going growing nuts.

[SASKFARMER3]

Well if we didn't have the CWB! The great HRS and Barley and Durum crop that's out their could make some real money and then we would not have to give away the canola and pea crop to pay the bills.

[charliep]

I can't forecast the future but I do know that things have to occur
just about perfect from here on in to get a crop period in much of
Alberta. Was in the N.E. corner of Alberta on my motorbike and as
you say everything is late, late, late. Combine that with minimal
rain/damage that has occurred already and there is the making of
reality.

From the cow calf meetings and other things.

July will be the determining month but I suspect we all will have to
go over the education from 2002. There was a lot of creativity in
2002 that lessened the pain of a pretty dire situation. Examples
will be around the decision to harvest crop versus use as
pasture/green feed.

Also need to look hard at existing new crop price contracts. Lower
US futures prices may open up the alternative of buying some out
of the money calls just in case the market takes off this summer
and you are in a situation of having to buy out contracts because
of no crop. You are covered to some extent in Alberta through the
variable price benefit (calculation in October) and if you took the
variable price option in Saskatchewan (calculation in July).

[charliep]

On the last comment, would be watching this Tuesday USDA acreage report
carefully - particularly on corn. Feed grains in general (including barley) have
potential to be interesting. As a grain guy, potentially short term good price wise
but will have implications medium and long term as North American livestock
numbers adjust to a new reality.

[lesm]

Finished spraying canola yesterday( second time on rr canola) and this canola is no further ahead than the last seeded liberty canola. As Charlie said, unless we get perfect conditions from now on, we are in for a huge wreck. The frost and cold weather had put this crop behind at least 2 to 3 weeks. Will have to reconsider my decision about using Proline this year.

[Burbert]

Don't worry, if crop doesn't work out, Gagstability, Gaginvest, and GagtheWest programs will kick in. The Ritz cracker will ride to the rescue help farmers, probably wit more loans though. But thats good tooo,cause grain prices have been soo good recently, who cares about pricey inputs, easy to pay when yields are so high. If in doubt invest in the stock market, great deals there tooo, I'm told!

[furrowtickler]

Burbot, great to hear the news from "behind the home". Good to see your still kickin' and full or p and v!

[checking]

Some people can take the shine off a freshly minted penny just by looking at it! A perhaps beneficial side of where the markets are, or where the recession is, is that the divorce rate is way down. People arn't splitting up since they realize that they will leave with a share of little to nothing. Is it possible that these government "gag" programs have actually been designed to help farmers like Burbert? (lol)