Global starvation imminent ?

[bduke]

Parsley... your data caught my attention and
motivated me to do a little research.

I checked the the G15 countries, which include
China, India, Brazil,Indonesia, Russia, South Korea,
Japan, Germany,France,Italy,UK,Spain, Mexico USA
and Canada.

These countries have about 60% of the world's
population... about 4.06 billion people.

The GDP of this G15 is about 75% of the world GDP.

Average income is measured in purchasing power
parity..PPP... which is a hypothetical unit of currency
based on the purchasing power the $US had in
1990 or 2000.

Average income in PPP's is about 13800.

I agree that solving the solving of world hunger is
not probable with agronomic solutions.

However the developing middle classes in China,
India, and Indonesia ... for example... will expand
the affordable market ... the real market.

BTW... solving a global overpopulation.. a
sociological problem.... is unlikely with a political
solution either.. or any practical solution for that
matter.

However, Parsley, do you foresee the growth in
organic foods to remain strong enough to maintain
the pricing premiums with, perhaps, a growth of
100% in 5 years?

I ask you because it seems to me we farmers tend
to be mostly focussed on maximizing production
rather than optimizing our net incomes.

I don't like participating in "mug's games!"

Of course... I could be wrong.... Bill

[parsley]

The consumer has always driven the organic market in the past. And the consumer has gone out of their way to buy organic food. And pay a premium.

It hasn't meant that the organic farmer is more noble. Or more efficient. or cheaper.
Rather, I think organics has courted a farmer-consumer relationship . Also

[parsley]

Also, I think that the organic consumer does not trust conventional farming methods. Organic conusmers are fine print readers, probably because they are better educated and have more disposable income to buy organic food.

They are fussy about what they put in their mouth.
Will this grow? Are you more aware of what you put into your mouth than you were ten years ago?

I will ask you this. Do you prefer knowing where your food comes from?
And how it was grown?

Everyone should read the book called, "Dying for a Hamburger".

Especially if you grow food.

[cottonpicken]

Better educated?Please.

Next you'll tell me vegetarions are "just smarter than the rest of us".

[checking]

Do you have a statistic that says how much so called organic product is sold off supermarket shelves versus the pick up experience at organic farms. Would you ever question the big box method?

[bduke]

Parsley.... I agree that the more affluent and better
educated consumers tend to be the "organic"
market.

My concern is whether this market is large enough,
and will remain affluent enough to continue
growing at its past rate.

I don't foresee the developing middle classes in
China and India paying an organic premium.

However, the upper income earners in North
America, Europe, and the UK are not overburdened
by the cost of food!

Still, consumers can be fickle. If the unwinding of
the quantitative easing doesn't go reasonably well
we will have high inflation, and higher taxation, in
the aforementioned countries.

While I do care greatly what i "put in my mouth", I
can not ignore the anecdotal evidence of the size
and strength of our youth from all sectors of our
societies.

My interest in organics is acknowledging that the
customer is always right.

My concern is that the customer can be fickle.

Believe me, I would like to farm without the
chemical reps, the ferilizer sellers, the CWB, etc.
and their multitudes of vehicles, advertising, sale
forces, political influences and lifestyles that tend
to reduce the prices of grains.

The Grocery Manufacturers are another story!!

Basically, I am wondering how thin the organic
market is, especially for those without developed
relationships...... Bill

[parsley]

cott,

I can relate the profile of those who faithfully visted our farm, and they were, generally speaking, the mid thirties to late forties crowd, well educated, well travelled, and with lot of disposible income.

It surprised me.

I expected a stream of blue haired shoppers, but instead I got the university yuppies, wanting recipes to go with their Ireland Creek Annie bean purchase, or cooking instructions to go with their black garbonzo beans.

Keely interested shoppers! Sending emails, and phoning.

The clientele were could be described as carefull planners, including their eating habits,their nutritional needs. The majority had young children, hence we had gum trees.

We certainly sold to a few of the people recuperating, or trying to moderate their condition, for example, diabetics, or high cholesterol, or cancer, but the bulk, by far, was young couples with young children.

With money. And very well educated.

Rather surprising, isn't it?

It was for me.

And rarely a farmer came as a customer.

In fact, the few who did come would ask, "Who eats all these lentils? I don't."

Quite a learning experience for me.

[parsley]

The eye opener for me, checking, was really nosing out the stores in Eastern USA. We spent almost a month in NYC.

In Connecticut, there are huge, huge stores,a lot of them with organic product, natural product, or the farm's name listed on the label,stating, "If you want to ask Checking Farms Lt. a question about this product, call us at 881-881-8811".

Companies sending food to China to be processed, may find they lose sales over the long haul for that reason.

Stores who don't have someone to call for crucial information when the product on their shelves causes three deaths overnight, will quickly find different products to sell.

It's really about accountability, isn't it? It's not about size, is it?

[parsley]

bduke,

Thin?

My comment would be that most farmers want to grow food and dump it first chance if the price is decent.

Some farmers want to grow it and follow it through down the chain to various stages including end user. Hands on marketers, I'll call them.

There is a need for both.

A lot of farmers hate dealing with the public. Good grief, some farmers on AV berate every company and the people who work in the company, every chance they get. It's a poor working relationship and to expand it to include the consumer would spell disaster for all.

Paying attention to detail will always realize more money in the pocket.

The organic market, as we knew it, though, has mutated as more and more financially crippled farmers latch on, applying only the failed experiences they have learned at the conventional field, to organics, which inevitably results in repeated failure.

I believe the farmers who want to truly service a specific buyer, will liase, and co-ordinate their shipments, and refine their agronomic methods to suit the buyer.

The main thing is farmers must have the opportunity to choose your business partners AND be able to work amiably with the partners you choose to work with. Otherwise, it's a long hard life working with those you have to battle with for every sale made.

Organics as we now know it, may quietly become a revitalized group of people with a new name, energized by commerce and co-operation, working to service a specific market, but leaving behind, the regulatory feuding and the political positioning to the squabbling failures who have recently and often claimed it as their no-name political party.

But there is definitely a solid lucrative vibrant market for selling good food. Healthy food. Interesting food. Exciting food. Makes me drool. lol

After all, we love to eat, don't we? And if farmers love to grow, it's rather like selling diamonds; it's an enthusiastic match made in heaven. pars

[charliep]

Work we have done in the area I work in at ARD would tend to confirm Parsley finding. Its a different attitude but the mind set has to be marketing to a customer based on their needs/perception versus selling a commodity to a big market.

The other really big trend (and somewhat growing in Canada) is buying local. The 100 mile diet is the extreme but even buying provincially or Canadian. Observation is the consumer will change behavior in difficult financial times but some of the basic values/requirements around food will not change. It may mean they eat out less or change the type of restraunt they eat at.

[parsley]

charliep,

A wage earner making $80K yearly isn't injured severely if his food bill is raised from four thousand to forty two hundred a year.

But to the farmer, the additional income that results is HUGE. ie. To go from $5.00 wheat to $8.00 wheat is the difference between the next generation farming or not.

[checking]

In our father's, or our grandfather's farming time (depending on our present age), most of them will readily admit that the yellow flowered fields of the past had them beat. 2-4D arrived just in time for them to again grow decent cereal crops. Our organic grain farming neighbours of today openly lament that they wish their status would not be removed if they could just use four ounces of 2-4D. What does your research say about the danger of 2-4D on the organic public, or is it really always all about perception of what constitutes healthy food?