Ag canada canola numbers

[craig]

I was looking at Ag canada canola production estimates and I'm confused as to why the total production numbers are higher for this report than the one in April. This at the same time that they comment that canola crops have been impacted by the poor weather. It would seem ag canada is trying to take over from stats canada in publishing stupid numbers. To the credit of Stats Canada they do seem to be doing a better job of looking at Sat imagery as a tool for yield prediction. A credit to Larry Weber for trying to put some reality into our current situation.

[Zaphod]

Acres are up based on Stats Can June numbers but yield is lower than April. Other than that, I don't put too much faith in Ag Canada's S&Ds.

[charliep]

I would note that Ag Canada is simply an opinion and not survey based. The more important number to me is the July 31, 2010 ending stocks - 700,000 tonnes. Even with a 10.3 MMT crop, western Canada has enough customers to sell the entire crop and dig into inventory from the current year (forecast July 31, 2009 - 2 MMT). If the production FORECAST is high (likely is), then the impact will be to restrict the volume available for Canada core customers.

For what it is worth, here is the USDA call on world ****seed (canola to us) production, trade and ending stocks. Canada is high on production. Australia not included - important as an exporter. Also does not include eastern Europe (more important).

Does highlight a tighter canola/****seed situation.

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdreport.aspx?hidReportRetrievalName=BVS&hidRepor tRetrievalID=711&hidReportRetrievalTemplateID=11