If it FROZE!

[skhadenuf]

What is your estimate of canola if it froze on these dates? I know there are alot of variables that can change this somewhat but as it is now.
August 20 80% of canola ZERO yield, 10% #2 to sample with reduced yield, and 10% make it.
Sept 7 20-30% canola zero yield,30% #2 to sample reduced yield and 40 to 50% make it.
Sept 20 5-10% canola zero yield, 15-20% reduced grade and yield, and 70% make it.
Considering average frost how are the experts arriving anywhere near 10 million tons when the stuff that will make it is mostly the early stuff that was dried out froze and crappy. those crops that looked better after the bit of rain are now revealing how poor they are and always were.

[SASKFARMER3]

Aug 20 nothing. Burn all.
Sept 7 50% burn rest.
Sept 20 All should make. W O O O H O O.

[icelander]

Markets are putting back some weather premium, but do not realize how little crop there would be with an early frost. The overnight temps are way to cold to allow the crop to develop. I have a neighbor who tried a quarter of soybeans and is pretty sure it will never see a combine.

[fjlip]

I agree those % are close for canola. Barley would weigh the most. Our wheat needs to Sept 10 to compare with last year swath date to make it. A hell of a lot of cheap poor feed is what a frost would make. Would put crop insurance in the red, raising premiums. With little handling and crushing, a lot of red ink.

[tipsy]

Here in n e sask crops look pretty good with the expection of a few problem spots here and there.The biggest problem though is that the crop is 10--20 days behind.The last major frost we had here was in aug 22/ 04.From that frost there was some crop that was down graded and no doubt some yield loss.This year if it should freeze around that date I would suggest that most of this crop would be a total loss.The 22nd is still 20 days way and crop development could advance rapidly with some heat.If weather conditions should be similar to what we have been experiening,I don't think there will be much if any desiccating/swathing being done by the 22nd.On our farmm this fall we will be pushing the starting of desiccating and swathing sooner than we ever have in a effert to avoid the frost should one occur.How much crop would be salavaged if it should freeze on aug 30th would obviously depend on wheather up to then and how serve the frost was,no doudt there would still be considerable down grading and crop loss.