Crop potential moving up on some crops.

[SASKFARMER3]

Lentils and peas are their, all over the map some will have excellent some not so. Our peas are a little above our normal.
Hrs looks good still but late trying to change but still weeks away. Down from last year by 5%.
Durum Excellent but starting to change color slowly. Lower than last year by 15 to 20 percent.
Oats and barley same as last year on barley but oats yield will be down by 22%.
Canola is getting better on later crop but can it make it before a frost. Right now 30% lower than last year. Total will be 10.456 if no frost. Crops still are two to three weeks behind.

[LWeber]

10.456

What is your provincial breakdown?

[SASKFARMER3]

I just think that the crop has a potential for a over 10 crop now (notice I said potential) but you and I both no its so late in the year that that is starting to look more and more like a pipe dream. Out of our 20 i seeded the one that was reseeded, probably wont make it because of frost will then mean a 8.9 crop.
Southern Sask Canola in SE looks OK the central is coming better and North is late but OK, West SO SO.

[SASKFARMER3]

Drove this weekend from Watrous up to Nipawin over to Melfort and then to P.A.

Unbelievable crops the whole way!!

We get another 2 weeks of frost free.....Remember back in June when I was hammered for even mentioning decent crop?? Now suddenly we have all these boys jumping fence?? What happened??

Saskatchewan has recovered nicely.(I know not everywhere has recovered, and I feel for those guys)

[checking]

SF3, what was you 2008-2009 number? Most seem to agree that it was a banner year.

[furrowtickler]

Who's all these boy's? That corner of western Canada is in the best shape of all and represents 20% of the crop. That is a good thing if it makes it for those in that area. About the same size area was just wiped off the map in southern Alberta and central Alberta will still be 50% below normal as with western Sask. The final numders will still below what many think - before a frost if it happens. Just keepin it real.

[furrowtickler]

True Datt Furrow!!!LOL!!!

[icelander]

Crops will not yield anywhere close to what they look from the road. Now saying a aug. 20 frost. Crops are later then 2004 when it frooze on that date. canola still blooming everywhere in my area, so what does froozen blooms yield.

[mbratrud]

I have a brother that farms near Camrose. At the end of June he had some Canola wrote off by crop insurance, about 30% of his acres. The rest of his canola is very late but looks good. If there is no frost before the 15th of sep. It is possible he will avereage better than 30 across all his acres and his crop insurance claim will be lost.
I think this is a common tale... There are 2 very different potential senarios here. A frost anytime before the end of Aug would be a disaster, or we get an Indian summer like last year frost gets delayed to the last half of september and we pull off a big crop on average. I don't want to discount the guys out there hurtin there are some poor crops thats for sure. But dont forget to look beyond your back yard. There are some areas with massive yield potential. Oh if only we had a crystal ball. Apparently someone has one with all this chatter about frost coming Aug 20th.

[LWeber]

Alberta Ag's canola yield estimate for July 30 is 24.2 bpa across the province or 71.6% of the 5-year average. There is no crop in Alberta that is better than 74% of the 5-yr average. This did not take into account nearly a million acres that were pounded by hail.

You must have a better crystal ball than the one they are using.

[mbratrud]

10MMT would be about 12% lower average yeild than last year. I think thats best case senerio for sure.