Every single Crop is in the Tank for Prices MR Potash got it Wrong!

[SASKFARMER3]

Well well we over produced all over the world and guess what prices are back down to 1970s levels again 3.50 hrs peas at 4.80 lentils lost some .24 cents yesterday, etc etc etc. But as one famous CEO said the Best is yet to come. The world needs food and farmers need us. Well looks like they were wrong. The world would rather starve the farmers and eat banks and GMC and Chrysler etc than worry about food. The economy is out of the recession. I say its a spike due to stimulation then watch out dive dive dive.
Farmers wake up these companies screwed us with BS claims that their was over excess demand etc. Well when the truth comes out year later it was all a huge smoke screen. Every thing from Equipment price increases to Shortage of Roundup, to Nitrogen phos and potash. IT WAS ALL BS> plain and simple BS.
This time farmers realize these guys arent working for you they are screwing every single farmer over and over and over and getting away with it because all we want is a really decent crop to harvest at a good price. and the pride thing has something to do also.
So to mr Potash have a great retirement

[fjlip]

As usual SF3, you will be eating your words a year from now(maybe sooner)


Also find very interesting Larry saying this morning that the Canola crop could hit possibly 11 million tonnes if we don't get frost before mid Sept.

What happened I thought back in June the crop was a right off??

[LWeber]

a write off? - the lowest estimate I had was 9.2 MMT on June 14; you would be the last person I thought would have selective memory snap.

Take a look at a rain map from mid June to Aug 30 for 2009.

then look at 2008

July 31 estimate of production of principal field crops, Canada
•Prairie farmers reported they expect to produce 10.3 million tonnes

September Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops, Canada
Farmers, in mid-harvest, reported they expect to produce 10.9 million tonnes of canola

November estimate of production of principal field crops, Canada, 2008
•The final crop report for 2008 revealed that Prairie farmers harvested a record 12.5 million tonnes of canola

[samhill]

I always doubted that he was guilty and would like to
read his book. The crown prosecutor has a rep for
big mistakes.

[samhill]

Sorry, my above post was a mistake in this thread,
please ignore.

[SASKFARMER3]

Snapper please explain are prices not in tank were we not fed BS from fert companies chem companies and equipment.yield look back a few weeks ago I called it a little higher for canola so come on snap wake up

[Zaphod]

It all depends how far back you look to define the tank. No argument, wheat at $3.50 is very low. Flax at 9 or 10 is still pretty good. Even canola at 8 isn't bad compared to 5 or 6. Lentils have spent most of their time well below 20 cents. Yes, I know costs are up. No argument there either. But prices at last year's highs are simply not sustainable. The old saying that high prices cure high prices is still true. The BS came from the guys who said that grain prices aren't cyclical anymore. The myth of the "new paradigm" has been exposed. The problem is that too many people bought into it and their expectations are all out of whack.

[Zaphod]

Larry. I wasn't talking to you directly, when I said a "write off", what I meant is back in June when I said bumper was possible for some, I was slammed because most on here said an average wasn't possible no way in hell!

I can't believe how many guys on here have farmed for so many years, and still underestimate the power a crop has to heal itself.

SF3, as for you, you blow which ever way the wind blows. Yeah you increased your yield a few weeks ago...Big deal you spout off all summer about the disaster crops and now you predict bigger yeilds, and your a genious, next week if it freezes you'll say "I TOLD YOU IT WOULDN'T MAKE IT"

And for the lows in the grains, no biggy, You look at prices on a daily basis, I look at them on much bigger picture.

I gurantee a year, or two, or possibly sooner things will change, and it doesn't matter what size the crop is.

[ado089]

I agree Ag Buis fed a line to the world. But take a look at the situation other than in you back yard. First of all it's expected that commodity prices are down due to the stupidly high level of our dollar. Secondly just because things are all roses in SE sask doesn't mean the rest of the prairies look good. Ponoka to lethbridge got hit hard by hail, central to nothern alberta and parts of west central sask were so dry you couldn't drag your feet without starting a fire. I also question wether you've gotten out of the truck and closely inspected your canola. Even at battelford were we had pretty good conditions all year with the exception of cronic frost all 12 months most canola will strugle to beat 35bu/ac even though from the road it looks 50 plus, granted the peas came off in that 50bu/ac range and it looks like the wheat will do a little better. It's still a long way from the bin and we're a long way ahead of most areas.

And by the way even with grain prices as high as they were last year when you take into account inflation we've been going backward with grain prices for the last 30 years.

[ado089]

ado89, Actually I think alot of guys in the disaster areas, have to look in other areas other then their back yard.

The guys in the disaster areas I feel for them, it sucks, but that hail storm that hit Camrose and area isn't going to change the market, just shity luck for those guys. Last year Sask had the most hail claims in history, and look at the crop we grew in 08. Just heard yesterday, that 09 is the smallest hail claims in Sask in 30 years. So the hail talk is rubbish to the market.

Ado, if Larry is right and we grow a 11 million tonne crop.......You would call that a disaster??

[ado089]

And to answer your question SF3. Yes we were fed b.s by everyone out there.

Now I'll ask you this if you knew the dollar was going to do what it did this past 2 months, and you knew the machinery dealers were full of shit, why are you buying new tractors, and air drills this summer??

[SASKFARMER3]

Here is one for you genius. Bids are done I watch the dollar every day. Simply when time is right Ill order new. Its not right yet. But can book lease rate now. So by spring when it arrives our dollar should be at par. Bourgault is Canadian so price really not factor. Also bought a new 5Th wheel in USA other day saved $15,689.00 compared to two dealers in Saskatchewan. Dollar and check were done at low 1.08. So snap have a good crackle and pop. Also with the weather we have had this year it is a yo yo year your up after a rain and then panic after frost then up again when sun finally arrives then down when it rains 4 inches in august then up with the heat. The heat is good real good. Might even beat the frost on late canola field, Yea that's wishful thinking. On yield yea i did increase my guess because the south has some crop the central is OK and north is late and NE is not normal yield, Alberta came back some and Manitoba is doing OK.

[craig]

Although it might not have a huge impact the maturity variation in the field has to impact yield. The late stuff is too late and likely will shrivel up after cutting. Leave it too late and get caught by frost.still need to remember that the high yield areas are in the central north and those areas most impacted by droughtand cold. we have only one field ready to cut and any canola coming down is likely at less than 30 % colour change. Will likely be a good year for heated canola in the bin with the maturity variation

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree Craig the last time we had fields with various levels of maturity it made for a winter of restless sleep as this type of crop is tough to store.

[ado089]

SF3, I've been from Winnipeg to Calgary several times this year and yes things aren't as bad as the fear mongers are saying but the high production areas are! It wasn't just a little hail storm and a little drought in Alberta and Manitoba more than a little late. The areas that were hit hardest this are regions that outproduce most sask acres 3 to 1 consitently. When it comes to production in western canada where makes as big of a difference as how much.