#1 - We are responsible to ourselves only. Why get hung up about what "everyone" says? Read but "weed out" the BS. The input industry is selling to their investors so remember they have a different perspective than a farmer and yes, things will come home to roost for them when there is too much BS but we will still need equipment, fertilizer, etc.
#2 - I grew up in WC SK, the home of drought. I chuckle at those in the canola belt of AB that called things a wreck all summer only to hear that yields end up 80% of a 5 year average. This is just a "below average crop" and it really takes away from those in East Central AB where yields are pathetic.
#3 - I suspect the canola market may have wild swings this year so protect yourself. If your canola is on the green side and may heat, sell it and buy a call option for 20 cents per bushel or whatever you can justify. This is cheap insurance if a bin goes bad. If you're holding it, consider a put option to protect yourself from a record soybean crop. I can live with a 20 cent mistake, it's the $1 to $2/bushel moves that hurt me if I read the market wrong by betting on a frost in the US or not.
#2 - I grew up in WC SK, the home of drought. I chuckle at those in the canola belt of AB that called things a wreck all summer only to hear that yields end up 80% of a 5 year average. This is just a "below average crop" and it really takes away from those in East Central AB where yields are pathetic.
#3 - I suspect the canola market may have wild swings this year so protect yourself. If your canola is on the green side and may heat, sell it and buy a call option for 20 cents per bushel or whatever you can justify. This is cheap insurance if a bin goes bad. If you're holding it, consider a put option to protect yourself from a record soybean crop. I can live with a 20 cent mistake, it's the $1 to $2/bushel moves that hurt me if I read the market wrong by betting on a frost in the US or not.
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