Myth Busters.

[SASKFARMER3]

How big is the US Crop. Their saying its huge really huge. HM
I know its late really late since friends in Midwest arent harvesting any corn yet. Hell the Durum isn't completed in ND around Fargo. Its raining heavy in some states, Dry as fart in others.
Last weekend a friend was up at farm who is VP with a large US Ag Bank. I asked what he has been seeing and hearing. His comment was some good and some bad its an average crop.
On our farm its lookin like it will turn out to be an average crop. No Bin buster like last year just a good average crop.
So who is telling the truth. We know the USDA is always full of crap.
Second on Peas seems India is not in market at these prices. HM asked one Canadian buyer whats up. He said their not buying and he expects 5.00 to be top price for this crop. HM They have a shortage, They need to eat, WE control a supply, yet they want to pay us nothing to feed their people. F--k ---.
Australia is in for a huge production later this fall. MAllee answer that I heard the wise (HA HA) Mayo tell us its the largest crop ever. HA HAHA HA.
Then the next thing will be all the BS about how large the crop will be in SA. Their just seeding it.
Largest prices ever received Spring of 2008, let the good times roll every single input went up by 100% from Equipment shortages to Round up to Seed to Fert (Potash).
Canola 16 vs 8 now
HRS 10 vs 4 now
Oats 4 vs 1.3 now
Barley malt, flax etc etc etc.
Has your equipment fert or chemical dropped by over 50 % you know the answer. NO NO NO.
IT's all one big crock and us Farmers get it every time.

[countryguy]

Yeppers Sask.My "butt" doesn't even feel it anymore...

[Hopperbin]

I don't buy the 5 buck pea thing but with other prices in the gutter 5 peas seems competitive. If india is out of the market because too expensive then who was doing all that buying when they were 6.5 to 7 a month ago. Not sure about everyone else but I have decided to ride this market out for a while, may have to chat with the banker in a couple months.

[Hopperbin]

Nice to have a banker that cannot feel it anymore either haha.

[dave4441]

Actually Saskfarmer, some of my inputs did drop in half, Glyphosate last year 9/l, this year $4.35, last year liquid N was $600/MT, this year $239/MT. Equipment pricing must be getting more in line with a 94 cent dollar. Bought a new Versitile 2375 this summer and it was very reasonable. I agree that these crop prices are nuts, but did people plan there long term business plans on $16 dollar canola. It was there for no time at all. Pretty hard to keep taking the top price for every crop in 2007/08 and comparing that price for every year in the future. Prices will go back up, but looks pretty crappy for the next few months.

Re India, they will pay as little as they possibly can, they always have. Only a couple years ago people where hoping for $4/bu off the combine on yellow peas. No different then you or I will on inputs. Not a game at all. Why would they pay anymore when wheat/corn is where it is at? Can I get your opinion on that Saskfarmer?

[SASKFARMER3]

Well D A V E they dont like to eat wheat or corn peas are part of their diet. But my point has always been since this BS started with the one day BOOM. Prices increased for one day yet the suppliers of our products increased their prices by huge amounts then when the prices crashed it takes them years to decrease theirs. No one was banking on 16 Canola etc. NO one. But when your selling in the 8 range your loosing money big time. Oats at 1.20 or a little bit more your loosing money the dam Quaker oatmeal bar isn't dropping by over 70%.
But one we as farmers needed one year of huge prices to bank Cash and lots of it then we would have been in control. PS on them let them eat rocks instead. But alas it ended in one day and we are getting back to a place we were before and maybe worse off D A V E>

[SASKFARMER3]

Let me clarify dave yes they are the largest wheat producer on the planet. But they need peas in their diet.

[Zaphod]

Actually, peas are the last choice of pulses for Indians. They only use them because they are cheaper than chickpeas or lentils. That means it's the poorer people who tend to buy them. Sure, let them eat stones.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok Zap thanks for clearing that up. They should eat very well then since were at historic low for the product they should eat very well.

[Zaphod]

Historic low is closer to 3 bucks. Now that's ugly.