Outlook on the Japanese timothy market

[nakodo]

I was just wondering what others thought about what impact the Mad cow disease situation in Japan over the past few months will have on the timothy hay prices in Alberta. and also what sort of affect it will have on our ability to market timothy, Will there be a market? Is there anything to worry about?

[nakodo]

Beef consumption is down in Japan dramatically (most beef is from dairy steers or culls) also dairy consumption is under duress (seems the Dairy companies in Japan were recycling expired dairy products back into the production lines).

All of this will have an impact on the dairy farmer, but as imports are restricted (no dairy products except ice cream really allowed in) and tariffs high (nearly 50 % tariff on beef coming in) it will not be a collapse, more of a slow down, if there is excess hay available then the impact on price will be dramatic is my take on it.

A good year to lock in your selling price if you ask me...

[nakodo]

Japan's government under fire over mad cow crisis

02 April, 2002 15:20 GMT 08:00

By Aya Takada

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's scandal-plagued government came under fire on Tuesday for ignoring warnings that could have prevented an outbreak of mad cow disease last year and spared the food industry and consumers months of pain and uncertainty.

An investigating panel excoriated the government for failing to follow advice from the World Health Organisation (WHO) in 1996 to ban meat-and-bone meal (MBM) in cattle feed, thought to be the cause of the brain-wasting disease.

Calling that failure a "grave mistake", it also charged the government with stomping on a European Commission study that warned of an outbreak of mad cow three months before it happened.

"If the EC report had been made public, and the Japanese government had taken measures proposed by the report, we would have avoided the panicked reaction to the outbreak of the disease," the report said.

The report comes at a bad time for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has seen his support rating plummet in recent months -- initially after sacking his popular foreign minister but more recently because of a series of influence-peddling scandals involving members of his Liberal Democratic Party.

The panel's conclusions will pile extra pressure on Farm Minister Tsutomu Takebe to step down over his handling of the crisis, which critics have called negligent and incompetent.

The outbreak of mad cow disease in Japan last September devastated consumer confidence in beef, sent shares of food companies tumbling, hit the restaurant business and shattered faith in Japan's food-safety standards.

Formally known as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), the disease has been linked to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, which has killed about 100 people in Europe but none in Japan.

The panel accused parliamentary members of putting the priorities of the politically powerful farming lobby ahead of those of ordinary consumers.

It also charged the Farm Ministry with knowingly ignoring alarm bells over a possible outbreak of a disease that had crippled the British farm sector in the late 1990s.

CONFIDENCE LOW

On the streets of Tokyo, confidence in food safety remained in the gutter on Tuesday.

"I doubt the farm ministry is really concerned about people's health," said Fukuda Teruo, a 60 year-old taxi driver.

"Better to eat fish," he said.

Nearby, Korean-style barbecue beef restaurants in Tokyo's Akasaka entertainment district, always bustling before September, were struggling to attract lunchtime customers.

Oryukdo, one of the street's most famous restaurants, was dark and deserted, a victim of the mad cow blight that has driven food businesses to bankruptcy across the country.

The government-commissioned panel, comprising academics, journalists and consumer advocates, handed its report to Takebe and Health Minister Chikara Sakaguchi.

Koizumi reiterated that he had no intention of sacking Takebe, who was to hold a news conference later in the day.

But there was speculation that the minister might be forced to take a pay cut over his handling of the affair.

"I'm determined to do my best to carry out drastic reform of the Farm Ministry to regain the public's trust," Takebe told the panel after receiving the report.

The report contrasted the ministry's decision to ignore the WHO's warning in 1996 with the swift action taken by the United States and Australia, neither of which have been hit by mad cow.

EC IGNORED

The report also blasted the ministry for breaking off cooperation with a European Commission study last June, just as the commission was set to release a report warning that BSE could break out in Japan at any time.

Officials said at the time the risk of an outbreak was small because most of the MBM it imported was used as fertiliser.

Japan relies on imports for almost all of its cattle-feed requirements.

In a bid to calm nerves, Japan launched tests last October of all cattle due to be processed into food to prevent meat from infected cows being shipped out of slaughter houses.

The report said Japan's legal and administrative framework was ill-equipped to deal with the health concerns of an advanced industrial nation, and urged the government to set up an independent organisation to ensure food safety.

It said safety was compromised by a political climate of vested interest that was a relic of long-gone days when food was scarce. "There is a lack of thinking about the food chain from the farm to the dinner table," it said.

The report also blamed the Ministry of Health for failing to recognise and clean up the mess created by the Farm Ministry.

It accused the two ministries of endlessly passing the buck, fostering an environment in which non-cooperation and non-accountability were the norm.

"I take that issue very seriously," Sakaguchi said.