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Canola/soybean ratio

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    #1

    Canola/soybean ratio

    Where should we be price wise today and , or historically.
    Given the fx today where should we be.
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    #2
    Your challenge is making this comparison is that canola and soybeans have a different make up in terms of oil and meal content. Canola - 42 to 44 percent oil and 55 percent ish meal. Soybeans - 20 percent ish oil and 80 percent meal. Why I tend to follow crush margins more. Canola gets 70 percent of value from the vegoil side whereas soybeans get 70 percent of their value from meal.

    Soybean oil charts are not looking pretty. Your challenge to higher canola prices. Soybeans and soybean meal are looking very weak to me.

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      #3
      So Charle, sorry I was looking for a simple answer .
      My wife is a very educated Teacher and always answers a question with another fukin question, drives me nuts.
      I know your are far more educated than most of us, as is Errol, but simply , wtf is the average price spread between canola and soybean? Has canola been not traditionally been higher than soy ??
      Take all the b/s out - yes or no question and what is the 15-20yr ave spread?

      Comment

        #4
        No b/s.

        The average canola nearby futures premium over CBT nearby soybeans futures(converted to Cdn $/tonne) is $32/tonne based on the past 10 years. Canola futures were higher than soybeans about 71 percent of the time. The range was varied from canola futures at a $100/tonne premium to soybeans to the reverse (canola futures at $100/tonne discount.

        Not sure what it tells you but there is the information you requested. Could go cash to cash using US data but that takes more work.

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          #5
          Thank you very much Charlie .
          That's kinda what I thought , but your numbers bring validity to the point - should canola not be trading at higher levels than soybean now ??
          I am confused as to why canola is trading at a discount to soy at this time ?

          Comment

            #6
            Not sure other than the market. Last weeks COPA weekly sheet but I note that canola board crush margins have been improving. I also find the soybean board crush margin interesting. Soybean crush capacity has been struggling to keep up with meal demand - the January soybean chart reflects this.

            [URL="http://copaonline.net/"]COPA[/URL]

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