Argentina’s 2016/17 soybean harvest not going to be that big!

[SASKFARMER3]

Some major key growing regions of the country have received between 12 and 18 inches of rain over the past 30 days. There are large sections of the Pampa Húmeda where as many as 50% of the beans will go unplanted. Revista Chacra estimates this will reduce the total planting area by 700,000 hectares (1.73 million acres). It is estimating total 2016/17soybean production at 50 million tonnes.



You also cant tell me that the extreme cold in Europe and Russia with min snow cover hasn't hurt their crops.

USA seeded smallest winter wheat crop on record.

Canada didn't have as big of crops as stated earlier.

USA soy was less than they said.

[farmaholic]

In Weber's Canola Buddy newsletter, it appears the domestic crushers have a wider basis than the companies dedicated more to the export market.

....nearby months, must be covered short term.

[Rareearth]

If they grow, or don't plant with 12 to 18 inches of water a season, then we might be at risk of the same yields if "normal" happens?

[bucket]

On another market note they say with the warm weather farmer deliveries will increase.....uhhh....the elevators said they were booked even in the cold until the end of February .....magic must happen. ...

[mcfarms]

Grains moving here , one local terminal tells me they have moved 500 cars since Christmas.
Further to SF3s post , if you dont currently dont follow this site. [URL="http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/"]http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/[/URL]

good info here.

PS
Sorry for posting a marketing post to the mostly everything but commodity marketing forum.

[rockpile]

Good one mcfarms, lol! 500 cars since xmas is very impressive. It seems like every grain hauler in Alberta is on the #1 and 901.

[errolanderson]

Combined Argentina / Brazil bean production now pegged 160 million MT, a new record.

Brazil production is expected up sharply, offsetting Argentina production decline.

China is now awaiting South American harvest, slowing purchases of U.S. Soybeans of-late. According to USDA last week, global soybean ending stocks for 2016 - 17 will be 5 MMT higher than last year at 82.3 MMT.

Some analysts are now projecting a huge increase in U.S. soybean ending stocks in 2017-18, up 50 percent. This situation could pressure new crop canola values. Consider price risk management.

[bucket]

Hey wiseguy ....see the stats on percentage space available on both the prairies and at port?

And no space available.... or they now decide to buy garbage durum and plug it up again....

[bucket]

Errol

Could you run a scenario of price risk management and it's costs to a farmer?

Give us an example of options ...puts and calls .....and their costs and a net price per bushel for the producer after he pays the fees...

Show us the upside and the downside and the benefits of it.


Let's say I have 10000 bushels I want "protected" of new crop durum.

Or canola wheat lentils flax.....

What market in Canada is liquid enough to trade price risk management options on?

Just asking....

[farmaholic]

Do the Anal-cysts take into account production risk when they're talking price protection risk?

Sometimes I think the amount of actual production(unproduced) a person is willing to "risk" protecting is minuscule. Unless of course you're talking about only paper trading..... then why grow the crop?