Soybeans - Buy the Rumor/Sell the Fact

[charliep]

Tommorows USDA seeding intentions report seems to have the markets attention today. Expectations are for US soybean acres to be down - question is how much. Will be an interesting day. The question going into a report higher on expectations is what will be encore be. Stay tuned. Always interesting to be a student/let the market teach you.

[charliep]

The full USDA seeding intentions report can be found at:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/field/pcp-bbp/pspl0305.txt

Not far out of line with expections. Soybean acres down 2 % (73.9 mln acres in 2005 verus 75.2 mln acres in 2004). Flaxseed, canola, sunflower also way up but barley down (particularly North Dakota). Oats also up.

Hopefully we can get some chatter going.

[charliep]

Talking to myself which maybe a sign of aging but today is too interesting to pass up with no comments.

Markets higher. Will look for others to explain.

Highlights to me are the barley number and impact on malt. This to me has the potential to be a wild card.

I only wish some of the innovation that is being shown for CWB wheat pricing contracts could be transferred to barley. I hear the arguements about lack of liquidity in western barley futures but perhaps having some more CWB involvement would help this.

I also note that perhaps allowing pricing outside the normal designated (perhaps with CWB advice on what a good price should be) is in order if not a complete open market. At the very least, there should be more pricing pools (separating 6 row from 2 row and export from domestic). Maybe even more pools during the year (two yearly like in feed barley).

Another take home today is the increase in flaxseed and oat acres. Just intentions/lots of weather ahead but the increase in acres suggests to me being more aggressive in new crop pricing (particularly if you are increasing acres above normal rotations).

[charliep]

Another USDA report yesterday with no real surprises. Harvest is progressing in Brazil and beginning Argentina so much of the mystery/questions about South America production is being answered. This will have less and less impact on the market. The next news on the supply side will be North America weather.

My major push would be to have a good understanding of the cash flow needs (both this spring and next) and have enough crop forward priced (at your price targets) to ensure you can pay these bills/loans when they are due.

I would also have a good look at the charts. The market have provided opportunities for those that have been alert and/or have made good use of pricing targets.