Would a Mass Set a side WORK

[SASKFARMER3]

What I am talking about is say 10000 acre farmer would have to cut down to 7000 and spray or cult the 3000 for which if he sprayed he would get 100 an acre if he cult he would get 90.
This on our farm would cut
1000 canola at 35 = 35000
1000 HRS at 35 = 35000
500 peas at 35 = 17500
500 barley at 75 = 37500
Total grain out of system = 125000 bushels out of system
Rail ways loose $162000 in freight
Elevators loose $80000 in fake charges
Less Grain Comision guys needed
Truckers would loose $18500
Chem would loose sales of $63500
Seed Sales would be down $48,000
Fertilizer would be down $79500

Total less expenses = $451,500.00

Cost to tax payer and Drop CASIP etc.

= $300,000.00
Income lost is
$175000 canola at 5.00
$71,000 HRS at 2.2 remainder fall 07
$47,250 Peas at 2.70
$52,500 Barley at 1.40

Total = $345,750.00
Expenses - freight since its in price
= $289,500.00
Profit = $56,250.00
Plus final CWB in fall 2007 $56,000.00
TOTAL = $112,250.00
What this example shows if we did cut back We could drop to only asking $50.00 an acre instead of the 100
But look at who we would hurt by not seeding a crop all across Canada.
Since we sell on the world market this for a few years will help and then with one failure we would be way ahead.
Yes their would be some problems but just look at the benefits.
The hundred an acre would be a good deterrent to not seed.
These acres taken out of production would have to be the farmers worst acres. Marginal land.

JUST A THOUGHT

[Intrepid1]

The market for the crops is a global one. We can`t eat everything here domestically. Unless every country on the planet did a set aside, all we would be doing is to give the other players a better market for their products. Can Canadaian producers and the taxpayer afford that??

[grrrr]

"I am assuming that Ken Goudy is working on this as we speak," he said sarcastically.

[grrrr]

No, but really. Ken Goudy sucked $250 out of a lot of people around here about 8 or 10 years ago to join his "Focus on Sabatical" group. Some followed him like a god. Others saw right through his scam. I wonder where he is now?

[wd9]

Or have a drought in the rest of the world, or feed the 2 billion malnourished in the world, or get some headway on trade tariffs, or....

[SASKFARMER3]

Its not a ken goudy system I am talking about.
The Americans take marginal land out of production why cant we.
This will drive up FEED Costs and by doing that we will have a floor price greater than we have today.
And this time when the Alberta feed lots are bringing in Subsidised US Corn Nail then with a duty.
Also to all the Cowboys who think Cattle is great have a BSE in Place for 12 years like we have had with the US Ag Policy and see how long you guys last.

[cowman]

Saskfarmer: You seem to have missed something? DRIVE up feed costs? I wonder how that is going to work?
Last year a slug of calves went south to be fed. In fact it was American buyers setting the price on calves last fall. And in case you didn't know it...I don't think anybody made any money feeding cattle up here this year despite record cheap grain?
The world has changed...it is one hell of a lot cheaper feeding cattle and hogs in the USA than it is here...just a fact? If you can't compete with subsidized corn put a duty on it, right? Okay then the cattle and pigs will be fed in the States...no problem!
What is needed is a harmonization of agricultural subsidy programs between Canada and the USA, not trying to drive the feeding industry south and destroying our livestock sector?
Twelve years of BSE? If that happened there wouldn't be a cow in Canada....so why are you still beating your head against a wall? Why would you take a bath for twelve years? How can anyone afford that? You must have very deep pockets!

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes Cowman your right and the pockets were really deep but now were down to the threads and we changed the farm completely since this all started.
All I know is the US games and Canadian games are killing us all. and where it will end will be any ones guess.
just hope I can get through another year other wise Ill be living in Alberta and my wife can nurse and Ill go working.

[cowman]

Saskfarmer: I know it isn't very rosy. With grain prices at the price they are it sure doesn't look good? And with our new federal government starting to look like our old federal government...well what can you say?
Reading the last issue of the Western Producer and ag minister Wartmans comments it doesn't look very promising.
Top that off with Barry Wilsons column: A farmer called him up and blasted him for crying farmer poverty and the need for a farm aid program! Farmer stated he was doing very well, thank you very much, and recieved over $100,000 in goverment payments and that Wilson should lay off calling for a crisis payout!...now I don't know...maybe Wilson should have had the call traced? Might have found out the caller was Mark Wartman!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

I read that article to and wondered out loud what that guy was talking about. I have lots of friends that farm throughout Saskatchewan and when we get together not one this year is saying how rosy it is like this guy. Also his comments on getting 100,000 out of CASIP i really question that one. first to get that kind of money for 04 they would have corresponded back and forth with the guy to drive him nuts. Second its over 100,000 so they would AUDIT him, and with understanding the program he would have not paid any suppliers in fall of 03 etc. Or he is just plain lying.
ANY one who deals with the CASIP program knows that they are like buying a lottery ticket you pay for your ticket and then wait and see if you won. This guy won so I guess it really is like a lottery every one knows of some one out their that actually won 6-49.
I am sorry the guy was probably Kevin Hursh!

[Vader]

I don't accept the argument that because it is a world market we should not try to do anything to impact world prices.

I am not saying that we should commit economic suicide. Whatever we do should make sense. I think a properly designed program like what the Americans have in their CRP or what the Europeans have for the biodiesel and ethanol programs have a lot of merit. There are probably some aspects of all these type of programs that could be considered weaknesses.

In Europe their "set aside" program actually is linked to energy crops. Your government payment is forthcoming only if you plant a crop that is destined for processing into bio-energy. I like that much better than the US CRP (conservation reserve program). The CRP eliminates all economic activity on that land and can have very negative impacts on the community since there is less fuel, crop inputs and machinery being sold. Farmers whose land is in CRP are not allowed to even harvest hay unless there is a serious drought in the area.

I like the idea of paying farmers a "set aside" payment that actually encourages the growing of a non-food crop. The energy crops are a very good alternative. I also believe that green cover crops for plowdown are also good alternatives. In this case the farmer is growing a crop of nitrogen for future years.

A green cover program should be for four years where 25% of each participants acreage is enrolled. Over the four year course of the program the entire farm would be rotated through a legume plowdown year. Payment for this program would be somewhere between $50 and $100.00 per acre.

This program would not make sense on all land types in all geographic locations. It is sensitive to land values and moisture levels. If the program were implemented on 1/2 of western Canadian acres that would take out 1/8 of our production. If we started with 50 million acres then the program would be on 6.25 million acres each year for four years. At $100 per acre the program would cost the government 625 million per year and would remove 6 million tonnes of production.

As Saskfarmer observed our costs for freight, fuel, machinery elevation and handling, chemicals, and fertilizer would be reduced by up to 25% as well. Actually fertilizer costs would be reduced by a lot more than 25%. Fertilizer during the plowdown year would be zero and fertilizer during the following three years would be significantly reduced.

This program would reduce the risk exposure of those farms significantly. Soil health would be improved creating better long term sustainability. Capital costs could be reduced since 25% less crop is being harvested, stored and transported.

Again as saskfarmer noted there would be a huge push back from fertilizer companies, chemical companies, elevator companies, railroads, terminals etc. etc. etc.

This program may or may not influence world prices. I personally believe that any decrease in supply would be positive for prices. I don't care if others will try to increase their production in response to higher prices. That does not mean that we should not try to do the right thing.

The world has produced less wheat than it has consumed for 7 of the last 8 years. We are just barely growing enough food to meet the demands of a hungry world. The world is carrying an inventory of 135 million tonnes of wheat. From the buyers perspective this is more than adequate and they have bid the price down to well below the cost of production. If we could snap our fingers and make 50 million tonnes of wheat disappear prices might respond dramatically. Should Canada do its part to make some of those 50 million tonnes disappear? I think that we should. Our fair share might only be a few million tonnes per year. Ethanol and biodiesel will make a few million tonnes of grain disappear, but those initiatives are a few years away. Over the course of a few years some countries will increse their production and the impact may be lessened. A green cover program could be put in place for 2007. I say, "Let's do it"!!

[Vader]

Saskfarmer, I have a neighbor who received $130000.00 out of CAISP for the 04 year and did not get audited. But I agree for most it sucks myself included.

[SASKFARMER3]

The guy will get a audit after his 05 is handed in June. the audit is done on any amount over 100,000.00
Tell him enjoy his year and if he has to pay money back tell them he cant pay and over the next few years they will deduct from it.
he did good.

[sawfly]

dont badmouth ken goudy, never met him, dont know him , but if you have used glyphosate in the last 20 years , your 250$ focus fees have been paid back 10 fold