Soybeans

[gregpet]

Anyone look at overnite soybeans. Down hard.

[LWeber]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/26/swine.flu/index.html

Meat consumption will be impacted in the short term.

[Fransisco]

Canola's down pretty good too so far. Will be interesting to see where the overnights close and where things go tomorrow.

[boarderbloke]

It's not surprising that there would be fear in the trade regarding hog consumption and associated feed, there is profit to take and better to get it off the table. The truth is that this flu IS NOT in HOGS, and is not being transfered to hog producers. The virus merely has a stain in it, that is similar to swine.
http://www.agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml?storyid=/templatedata/ag/story/data/1240605539296.xml

Will this be a temporary down turn or a complete collapse in prices for beans and canola? One thing though, if the down turn in prices is related to lower meal disposition, then canola should have the advantage due to a higher oil yield per tonne crushed. Will global veggie oil prices drop, or will the crush margins just keep getting larger?

[Fransisco]

Wheat is down pretty good as well. Oat's is also down but not as aggressively.

Hog futures are down, but they were trending down anyways, the downward pace hasn't accelerated, so far we're still in the same channel as the last couple of weeks.

[silverback]

How many high yielding canola areas have their canola seeded yet?

When will it get in?

It is winter in central Ab - again or still.

[Kodiak]

The Stock Market indices are also taking it on the chin in a big way, and give how soybeans in particular have been a big follower for the last 12 months, this is likely not helping.

One thing is certain. Markets for commodities, and for paper, will trade perception - in the short term at least. Whether, or when, they return to the direction and to levels based on their own fundamentals is a big question. The sooner the better.

[Kodiak]

DJ Swine Flu Outbreak To Impact US Grain Prices Short Term
11:31 PM, April 26, 2009
By Gary Wulf

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CENTRAL CITY, Neb. (Dow Jones)--The U.S. swine flu outbreak could sicken the
U.S. cash grain market if many other nations follow the lead of Russia, which
Sunday banned pork imports from nearly a dozen U.S. states in reaction to the
growing international health crisis.

"The initial reaction to the swine flu fears is bearish, but the longer-term
sustainability of such negative implications lack merit," said Duane Lowry,
market analyst for early Market News Inc.

In 2008, the U.S. exported more than 2 billion pounds of pork; which at a
standard swine feed-conversion ratio of four-one, is roughly equivalent to 106
million bushels of corn and 43.5 million bushels of soybeans.

Russia was the fifth-largest export market for U.S. pork in 2008, taking
almost 10% of all U.S. shipments, valued at around $476 million.

The Philippines, Thailand and Jordan, which purchased more than $50 million
of U.S. pork last year, also cut off pork imports over the weekend after the
U.S. government declared a public health emergency to stem the spread of a
heretofore unknown strain of Mexican swine flu.

The virus, thought to be a unique mix of bird, swine and human genetics with
the potential to cause a global pandemic, has killed 86 people in Mexico and
has been confirmed in the U.S. and Canada.

The World Health Organization Sunday reiterated that properly cooked pork
won't transmit the disease to humans, but consumers have all but eliminated
poultry and beef from their diets during past outbreaks of avian flu and mad
cow disease despite similar assurances. Such reactions almost immediately
impacted market prices, livestock production - and ultimately grain
consumption.

Last year, U.S. lean hog futures nearly dropped by their daily allowable
limit of $3 per hundredweight after Moscow banned meat imports from just four
U.S. pork plants after Russian inspectors claimed they found the antibiotic
tetracycline in some shipments.

The first confirmed case of U.S. bovine spongiform encephalopathy - reported
just prior to Christmas Day of 2003 - produced an almost limit-down move in
U.S. corn prices, pushing prices to a 5-week low. However, prices did recover
all of the losses by New Year's Day.

With that template as a potential guide to market movements, Lowry said he
the current swine flu scare may impact short-term price movements, but in the
longer term, demand fundamentals will kick in.

"The reality is that any pig on the ground now will eat, and no producers
will make long-term production decisions based on the current swine flu
hysteria," he said. "There is no merit in the argument that corn should be
bearish on swine flu, but that doesn't prevent the masses from trading that
fear initially."

U.S. corn and soybean futures have shed both shed value in overnight Globex
trading at the Chicago Board of Trade, falling 3.3% and 4.2%, respectively, at
0425 GMT.


-By Gary Wulf; Dow Jones Newswires;

[Kodiak]

An opportunity, say about Tuesday, to buy back previous sales?? Anyone brave enough?

[Kodiak]

I know it looks like I'm talking to myself, but this morning (8:00AM MDT) it looks like the panic may already be subsiding. Stock markets have already made a recovery, gold is slightly down, currencies are yawning. Financials have cooled down.

I'm going to see if I can catch the falling soybean knife I'll let you know how much blood I lose!