Soybeans

[charliep]

Likely an over reaction.

A fear I have heard expressed is the impact of a pandemic on logistics and processing. What would happen to agriculture/other industries if 25 percent of the workforce or more is home sick or looking after family members?

[jensend]

this is what makes markets nervous. not so much this one outbreak that so far is not causing serious illness in the usa but the fact that some food production systems may not be up to snuff. i'm sure part of smithfield's reasoning in setting up in mexico is the more lax regulations for health and environment making for lower costs.


from ranchers.net:


The outbreak of a new flu strain—a nasty mash-up of swine, avian, and human viruses—has infected 1000 people in Mexico and the U.S., killing 68. The World Health Organization warned Saturday that the outbreak could reach global pandemic levels.

Is Smithfield Foods, the world’s largest pork packer and hog producer, linked to the outbreak? Smithfield operates massive hog-raising operations Perote, Mexico, in the state of Vera Cruz, where the outbreak originated. The operations, grouped under a Smithfield subsidiary called Granjas Carrol, raise 950,000 hogs per year, according to the company Web site—a level nearly equal to Smithfield’s total U.S. hog production.

On Friday, the U.S. disease-tracking blog Biosurveillance published a timeline of the outbreak containing this nugget, dated April 6 (major tip of the hat to Paula Hay, who alerted me to the Smithfield link on the Comfood listserv and has written about it on her blog, Peak Oil Entrepreneur):

Residents [of Perote] believed the outbreak had been caused by contamination from pig breeding farms located in the area. They believed that the farms, operated by Granjas Carroll, polluted the atmosphere and local water bodies, which in turn led to the disease outbreak. According to residents, the company denied responsibility for the outbreak and attributed the cases to “flu.” However, a municipal health official stated that preliminary investigations indicated that the disease vector was a type of fly that reproduces in pig waste and that the outbreak was linked to the pig farms. It was unclear whether health officials had identified a suspected pathogen responsible for this outbreak.
From what I can tell, the possible link to Smithfield has not been reported in the U.S. press. Searches of Google News and the websites of the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal all came up empty. The link is being made in the Mexican media, however. “Granjas Carroll, causa de epidemia en La Gloria,” declared a headline in the Vera Cruz-based paper La Marcha. No need to translate that, except to point out that La Gloria is the village where the outbreak seems to have started. Judging from the article, Mexican authorities treat hog CAFOs with just as much if not more indulgence than their peers north of the border, to the detriment of surrounding communities and the general public health. Get this:

De acuerdo con uno de los habitantes de la comunidad, Eli Ferrer Cortés, los desechos fecales y orgánicos que produce Granjas Carroll no son tratados adecuadamente, lo que genera contaminación del agua y del viento en la region.
My rough translation: According to one community resident, the organic and fecal waste produced by Granjas Carrol isn’t adequately treated, creating water and air pollution in the region. I witnessed—and smelled—the same thing in Hardin County, Iowa, a couple of years ago, another area marked by intensive industrial hog production. The article goes on to say that area residents have long complained of “fetid odors” in the air and water, and swarms of flies hovering around waste lagoons. Like their counterparts who live in CAFO-heavy U.S. areas, they also complain of respiratory ailments. Now, with 30 percent of the area’s residents now infected with the virulent flu bug, people are demanding that state and federal authorities inspect hog operations there. So far, reports La Marcha, the response has been: nada.

The Mexico City daily La Jornada has also made the link. According to the newspaper, the Mexican health agency IMSS has acknowledged that the orginal carrier for the flu could be the “clouds of flies” that multiply in the Smithfield subsidiary’s manure lagoons.

[agstar77]

hat most are forgetting that in the Northern hemisphere, epidemics are more serious in winter when people congregate indoors. Another buying opportunity for the not so timid.

[Burbert]

Relax and chill, enjoy watching the Americans squirm for a change. They did a number on us a while ago, painting us with Ontario sars and Western bse. Oppurtunity knocks for Kanadian hog producers. Lets pick up the slack. After all ag depends on someones crop failing and ours being available, get it while the gettin is good. US hog flu is good for Kanadians!!!

[charliep]

A long ways from soybeans to pigs but here is a good article called:

Swine Flu: What Pork Producers Need to Know

http://www.agweb.com/get_article.aspx?pageid=150626

[Kodiak]

I said I'd report back on how well I did trying to catch the soybean "falling knife" on Monday during the flu panic. Well I swallowed hard and bought a couple of contracts. 2 trading days later and so far no blood!

A trailing stop should let me live to trade again another day!