CWRS Market signal

[GrainBeetle]

Charlie:

First you say wheat carryover will be 8mmt, then you say 6? Perhaps 4mmt is next? Is this why you no longer work for the CWB marketing department?

Rolf: How is the stinky pig market doing these days? I dumped all my frozen pork in the garbage.... yuk! BBQ steak and chicken for my family this long weekend.

[Hopperbin]

Are you referring to the Canola average price of `13 dollars per bushel to date?

[GrainBeetle]

Hopperbin: show me how you come up with $13/bu average when most line companies shut down forward pricing last spring at the height of the rally?


Also from looking at the weekly canola deliveries it appears they were quite fluid each week. Are you saying the majority of these deliveries were priced prior to last fall?

If your are correct, then Canadian farmers shouldnt farm, they should just trade the market and quit complaining about fertiler prices.

[GrainBeetle]

Charlie:

First you say wheat carryover will be 8mmt, then you say 6mmt, perhaps your next post will say 4mmt. Is this why you no longer work at the CWB marketing department?

Franny: how is your stinky pig market doing? I tossed all my frozen pork meat. From now on it's going to be BBQ beef and chicken. Pork is no longer on my family's menu.

[Fransisco]

Okay,okay, for grainbeetle it's, "an evening with -Butch Harder- that includes full bedroom privileges."

[Hopperbin]

Hey grain beetle where do get that pork is bad for you???

Well I had a CFCO contract that was basis contracted and allowed to price. But I know of some neighbours that priced off the combine for much higher for regular canola, so again why should anyone force me to sell through the CWB? And ah ya they were price before fall.

[Hopperbin]

Grain beetle my farm is a family farm and by that definition I hope it to be in the family for generations after me if not farmed then at least owned. I don't think we should not farm or trade market instead. I think it best to market what we have.

[furrowtickler]

Grain bug, Canola, peas, U.S. wheat, lentils all steadly moveing up and the PZRO's keep dropin and the Fixed price basis keeps getting wider KMA.

[charliep]

Grain Beatle

What is the appropriate number?

My number would be closer to 7 MMT with the
extra feed use in but the 6 MMT in the information
I receive would not be out of line.

To put into context, the export number in my S&D
is 17 MMT (1 MMT above the CWB target from Dec -
may have been revised upward.

On week 41, exports were 13.5 MMT. To achieve
17 MMT, the CWB will have to export about
300,000 tonnes/week. To bring down carryovers
by an 1 MMT, the CWB would have to export an
additional 100,000 tonnes. That is, exports of 18
MMT/carryover of 6 MMT would require 400,000
tonnes/week. Carryover of 5 MMT (same as July 31
2008), 500,000 tonnes. Etc.

The original topic was about the ability of the
market to provide signals to make any of these
numbers happen. The open seems to do as good a
job as single desk if not better.

[charliep]

Should have separated durum from other wheats.

Durum exports to date (week 41) - 3 MMT. Likely about 75,000
tonnes/week or 3.8. Carryover July 31 - close to 2 MMT or double the
previous year.

Wheat ex durum (week 41) - 10.5 MMT to date. Wheat exports
somewhere between 225,000 (likely light) and 325,000/week. Upper end
would see wheat ex durum down to 4 MMT on July 31 - similar to 2008.