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    #51
    dmlfarmer

    After 46 postings and given the time of year (seeding/should be
    following markets) but your line of questions made me think and go
    back over some old ideas.

    Will note that the CWB deliveries are normally weighted into the last
    quarter of the crop year. This year is no different. If you want to look
    at historical evidence, go the to Informa Economics study "An Open
    Market for CWB Grains" (Figure 8, page 24).

    http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$Department/deptdocs.nsf/all/agc6751/
    $FILE/informafinalreport.pdf

    You can also look at the tables on page 54 (table 2.31) that shows
    average time in the primary elevator.

    To highlight using Canadian canola and wheat based on the five year
    average deliveries.

    Canola takes about 28 % of annual deliveries off the combine first
    quarter (Aug/Sept/Oct) with the remaining 72 % of deliveries split
    evenly over the next 3 quarters. Time in storage is about 20 days.

    Wheat deliveries are weighted to the 4 th quarter (May/June/July) with
    30 % occurring during this period. Average days in storage 35 to 40
    days. durum is worst at 45 to 65 days.

    Some of the answer is the multiple class, grade and protein
    segregations in wheat. But a sales system that is based on having
    actual product in the commercial system before sales are made would
    seem to be highly inefficient - particularly when farmers are delivering
    right in the same period that US farmers are harvesting and selling
    their new crop winter wheat - you can look at US farmers delivery
    patterns.

    Likely won't get a response but the issue is a lot more than the one
    pony show you would seem to highlight. It is a long term system
    problem.

    The challenge back is how you would measure CWB logistics
    performance. It is not measured in the current annual report.

    Comment


      #52
      Should note that US farmers deliver 45 % of their crop in their
      first quarter (June, July and August) - same time that Canadian
      farmers are delivering their 30 in the last quarter of our crop
      year (May, June and July).

      Other Northern hemisphere winter wheat crops are being
      harvested and sold during the summer.

      Comment


        #53
        To give the CWB credit for a good job the reason for higher export volumes would be highlighted in the following bullet from the CWB Bulletin.

        Beginning quote "April 2009 saw the biggest exports of CWB grain in a single month since November, 1997. Last month, there were 2.3 million tonnes of western Canadian wheat, durum and barley exported, a 174-per-cent increase over April 2008 and well above the 10-year average of 1.3 million tonnes for April movement. These export volumes are due to a strong sales program to market the largest Prairie crop in a decade and the availability of rail and vessel capacity due to the economic downturn for other commodities. Significant export volumes are expected to continue throughout the spring, so farmer deliveries are encouraged throughout May and June to fulfill sales commitments, particularly for Nos. 1 and 2 CWRS and No. 1 CWAD." end quote.

        Comment

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