Cattle Appear Vulnerable

[errolanderson]

cotton . . . the Japanese government is blaming the weakness on an April sales tax that apparently stopped their consumer from spending.

[mcfarms]

Doesnt make me sad or mad thanks for dropping by mrs anderson.

[cottonpicken]

Ya read that,nothing to do with the fact there largest trading partner has an all out boycott of their goods

Their forex reserves could fund them for a while,but then what?Plus i doubt they would be allowed to dump 1 trillion of us treasuries on the market without creating a panic.

Its all over but the crying,and war there is going to be a war.

[malleefarmer]

geez give errol a break hes passing on his opinion it is a forum exchange of views

he called for much lower wheat prices back in march april and it happened but hes not patting himself on the back he just called it as he saw it

marketing is not a perfect science

cotton and errol lock horns occasionally but in a civil manner

[BFW]

Errol I agree cattle are vulnerable but tight supplies still rule. Although I thought cattle might fall the drop this past 10 days caught me a little off guard. The biggest surprise of all though is being able to sell cash fed cattle this week, pretty good volume at steady money at $280.00 in the meat.

[cottonpicken]

Malle,oddly enough this graph popped up today,expressing Errol and i's divergengent thoughts,do you agree Errol?

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/08/20140813_gold.jpg

We are really only predicting policy.


As far as cattle,have no time for tech,and now and days it is not as reliable,seeing as how all asset values are manipulated,but if you sell the shit out of them i wouldn't bug you,nice run,maybe not the top but,you got out of the castle with the princess's virginity,i would bug you if you are going to heard liquidate.

[cottonpicken]

Errol,6 years ago

https://www.agriville.com/cgi-bin/forums/viewThread.cgi?1215801996

[riders2010]

and why are cattle vulnerable????? There are no *** cows left and so that's why they are high that's supposed to be supply and demand but now they will go higher because the corruption of those that control the market will act and yes it will go down. so when you think you are so pissy pants happy about our freedom, the only freedom that exists now exists for the monopolists that's what they really are, that control every sector of agriculture.

[errolanderson]

cotton . . . an interesting zerohedge graphic that about sums up market alternatives ahead. Stagflation, artificial boom or flat=out recession/depression.

Loose monetary policy is inflating stock prices, but it is not boosting economic activity (the failure of QE). How to dig out of this hole appears impossible (IMO) without serious financial consequences. We both agree on this.

Bottomline, there is simply no good ending. Central bank tools are now tapped out without refreshing real growth and rebooting economies (IMO).

This suggests 'Kicking-the-can' days are numbered for central bankers. Economies and markets will have to stand on-their-own. And it will impact all our commodity markets, including even the most bullish.

[greybeard]

Rocketing prices often form a rocket image on the chart.
Hopefully we have established a new and much higher trading range.

[TSIPP]

I am not shure cattle are really that high, they were just very very low. I am pretty confident if I bought 10 quarters and put cows on it I could make half the payment, probably the same if I grain farmed it. all I now is I love ranching but the last ten years really sucked.

[mcdon]

I would like to thank Errol for his contributions to this thread, he brings something to this site. With respect to cattle prices and Errol's analysis, Errol made a mistake that every trader makes at some point - staying with a trade that moves against you while trying to rationalize your position. The most important characteristic of a trader is to admit when he/she is wrong and to take your lumps. Nonetheless, Errol's comments are interesting/valuable, I don't really understand the criticism. BTW the best livestock trade this year was long cattle/short hogs. Take care.

[TOM4CWB]

Macdon,

Right ON!

Not only traders make the mistake of flogging a dead horse... but then farm managers are traders as well... just not in the formal futures daily sense... yet daily attention to market moves is required!

Great part of Agriville... the many issues that affect markets come up here!

Fun and interesting discussion... All sides exposed!

Cheers... thanks again Errol for partaking too!!!

Grin

[mcfarms]

posted May 30, 2014 9:43
Canada's 1st quarter GDP released this
morning at a disappointing 1.2% as
compared to average guess of 1.7%

U.S. GDP released yesterday was horrible
at -1.0% showing the first economic
contraction stateside in three years.

Winter weather blamed . . . IMO not the
whole problem with slowing consumer
spending

U.S. now entering a recession?posted Jun 4, 2014 9:16
Group . . . U.S. private employers job creation was released this morning at 179,000 jobs for May compared to the average guess of 210,000 jobs. U.S. economy appears stalling as these job numbers showing no growth at all.

U.S. trade deficit ballooned to $47.2 billion for the last quarter.

Now to vent . . . Obama's 15% greenhouse emmisions target would take a miracle to obtain. But the good news is it places the American coal industry in the spotlight. Alberta's oil sands and pipelines impact is so small compared to the U.S. coal industry. And the coal states are apt to fight this heading into the next elections.

Also, (venting again) using celebrity environmentalists, like Tutu who don't recognize that pipeline capacity has already been replaced by rail which is obviously more prone to spills and produces more GHG emission.

Grrrrr . . . . posted Jun 13, 2014 9:14
Released this morning, U.S. wholesale data shows prices (media quote) 'surprisingly' deflated in May.

Bad Fed monetary policy going for the quick fix of inflation is simply 'dumb' IMO. And with the quick fix not working and prices deflating anyway, where is the world's largest economy and QE induced record-breaking stock markets actually going to by fall??

For the Fed, is it 'pick your poison' time? .posted Jul 10, 2014 14:03
Realize, I was booed off-the-stage for suggesting cattle prices are at dangerous levels, but . . . .

Amazing stock market gains are a key reason holding up the boot-straps of the cattle market (IMO). This rally is now more demand-driven than supply-driven. The consumer is king in any market.

Alberta fed steers have been reported above an amazing $1.60/lb this week. Today's uneasy equity market is either the start of a correction or another head-fake. But in either case, it's a warning to the cash cattle market (IMO).

Current bids are smoking-hot, but risk management should be high-priority for feeders given the current record-breaking cost and price of cattle.osted Jun 25, 2014 9:00
released this morning . . . .

U.S. 1st quarter GDP was revised lower to -2.9%, well below trade average estimate of -1.7%.

Stock markets at record highs and the American economy is in-contraction with ongoing finger-pointing of bad winter weather . . . the culprit.


IMO, this is new economic math sponsored entirely by the U.S. Fed.

Market reaction may be interesting today

[mcfarms]

posted May 27, 2014 14:33
just a head's up . . . .

Cattle are heading out to pasture and barley demand appears fading at the feedlot level. Southern Alberta cash barley market may be in for a $10 to $20/MT drop into late spring. posted May 20, 2014 12:31
The amazing historic highs in feeder cattle is breath-taking. Realize supplies are exceptionally tight, but is the cost of replacment cattle now simply too high? Breakevens are soaring and with it barley bids are flying.

The market feels bulletproof. (IMO), a sign it isn't. U.S. fed supplies are likely to increase in June. Interesting cash market dynamiocs atraight ahead. (IMO). posted Apr 25, 2014 9:28
CME Group daily limit price changes to take affect on May 1st . . . .

New Daily limit Old limit
Corn 35 cents/bu from 40 cents
Soybeans $1.00/bu from 70 cents/bu
CBOT Wheat 45 cents/bu from 60 cents
KC Wheat 50 cents/bu from 60 cents
Oats 25 cents/bu from 20 cents
Soyoil 3 cents/lb from 2 1/2 centsposted Apr 24, 2014 0:42
Group note . . . China's economy is struggling right now. Lines of credit are squeezed likely in part to the overbuilt, overleveraged condo market impacting their banking industry. This is now filtering into the ag industry and felt by recent defaults in soybean purchases.

China's economy is considered in a recession at a 6.5% growth rate.

Now there are signs of a break in the U.S. housing market. A sharp drop in new home March sales caught the attention of many economists today.

Janet Yellen also re-stated that U.S. interest rates will stay low for a very long time. ie: deflationary threats (IMO).Europe is now clearly battling deflation.

This sets the stage for a very interesting 2nd half of 2014. Can the equity bubble continue under these global circumstances?

Food-for-thought for all of us . . . . .posted Apr 4, 2014 12:30
just a heads up . . . .

pork prices in a dive this week due to record U.S. hog carcass weights.

beef cutouts also breaking. u.s. packer kill margins now deep-in-the-red.posted Mar 27, 2014 21:15
Appears that China's investment in the oilsands is now a shadow-of-its-former-self in just one year. What's disturbing (IMO) is that the oilsands are the economic engine of Canada. This loss of investment may have the capacity to rattle the loonie even further. Time will tell.

And competition appears even heating for mortgages this spring as BMO has apparently lowered it 5-year mortgage below 3% . . . an unusual move for a normally 'cabinfevered pentup' Cdn spring housing market. Is competition for mortgages actually heating up?

Just an observation, but it was a cold and too long winter that may have the making of cooling our economy as well this spring.

Hoping this is wrong assessment . . .posted Mar 23, 2014 0:10
If wholesale beef and cattle prices keep up this torid pace, higher end steak houses might be pushing astromonical prices by summer.

Questions is; where does the consumer jump ship? Hog bids are rocketing (due to PED virus) and pork cutouts will roar as well.

Friday's USDA Cattle On Feed report continues to show higher feedlot cattle placements and Alberta/Saskatchewan placements are on-the-rise as well.

But Alberta barley bids have also jumped sharply into the spring market cutting into feeding profitabilty.

A collision between a red-hot pork/beef market and the consumer wallet appears inevitable ahead. posted Jan 15, 2014 9:27
This index reflects the daily charter rate for vessels carrying cargoes such as coal, iron ore and grains.

Index plunged 18% in past two days. The biggest decline in past six years.

There is a general slowdown in commodity trade globally, not just in farming. posted Jan 13, 2014 12:10
North American fed cattle bids have been on a record-breaking roll over the past three weeks. Texas/Kansas cash cattle traded $139 - $140/cwt on Friday, up $7 to $8 in les than a month.

Alberta dressed bids heard as high as $2.27/lb last week. Live bids are up more than $15/cwt over the past year.

Higher beef prices at the counter should this bull market hold up. Poultry is apt to gain market share (IMO).

Well there was one somewhat positive comment among the what 14 last topic threads so I apologize Errol. I was so wrong about you only bringing one viewpoint to the forum.