Are we getting enough info to properly market peas?

[mcfarms]

I was going to name this thread "Peas the new wheat" but didn't want to have this turn into a #%& topic.

I like to consider for better or worse that I am a decent enough marketer I read alot , watch the markets try to have a decent marketing strategy each year.
But each year I find myself being uless the pleased with my marketing info on Peas. The last number of years the strategy of wait until June has been paying off but I've been doing that as much out of watching the previous years and talking to our local traders and how they felt than any numbers or world based strategy.

So my question is are we getting enough info on peas and world supply/demand to be able to do a proper job.

[TOM4CWB]

mcfarms,

Good info is KING in this skill!

Here is an example:

Even the banks are praying for rain.

The National Australia Bank (NAB) warned on Tuesday of a "desperate" need for rain across much of the nation's farm lands.

Economist Skye Dixon warned the outlook for the wheat crop, already in great stress, was only getting worse.

"While timely planting rains prompted a large plant, lack of follow-up rains have lowered production estimates by around seven million tonnes, with current conditions dictating that there is further downside risk," Ms Dixon said in a statement.

The bank's general manager of agribusiness, Wayne Carlson, described the conditions as "extremely disappointing".

"There was fantastic autumn rain across much of the country, prompting many grain growers to plant 'fence to fence'," Mr Carlson said.

"Apart from a few pockets still having a great season, our bankers are now reporting declining outlooks for crops and a sell-off of livestock as pasture growth falters and feed prices skyrocket."

The dire outlook comes as wheat belts from NSW to Western Australia sit under clear blue skies with little chance of rain in the next seven days.

During the 24 hours to 9am (AEST) Tuesday, the Bureau of Meteorology reported no rain over the NSW, South Australia and Queensland wheat belts while there was light rain across southern and central Victoria and south-western WA.

For those few grain growers who will harvest a wheat crop this season, things are definitely looking up.

"There is limited downside for prices in the short term," Ms Dixon said.

"Prices are expected to remain well supported by tight global inventories."

The drought's imprint has not been limited to wheat, with the national cattle herd cut by 600,000 because of the lack of feed.

"There is some uncertainty around the direction of Australian beef prices, with the outlook highly reliant on an improvement in seasonal conditions and firm export demand," Ms Dixon said.

© 2007 AAP"
http://www.smh.com.au/news/BUSINESS/Drought-continues-to-hit-farm-crops-NAB/2007/10/02/1191091090621.html

IF we keep on top of "Market Makers" like the Aussies at this time of the year... it can help us to have our own window on the world that is much less likely to be clouded by info that stops arbitrage globally.

I really appreciate the news letter "Callum Downs"; the writer is a grower in Australia... and a good risk manager with very interesting strategies!

Hooking into information that has these types of innovators behind them... is key...

$457/t for AU 13px Durum,
$435/t for AU malt barley,
$410/t for feed barley
$370/t for high px AU wheat...
$630/t for Canola,
$475/t for Faba Beans,
$710/t for Lentil,
$375/t for #2Pea

These prices tell a big story... Especially AU barley which has just been freshly deregulated and is operating very nicely in a "Dual Market" market choice environment!

Here is the info, buy his news letter... you can even use your VISA and do it all on the Internet!

Malcolm BartholomaeusManaging Director Callum Downs Commodity News P/L Clare Office: Adelaide Office:Callum Downs Callum DownsPO Box 54, Clare, South Australia 5453 Steadfast House, 239 Magill Rd, Maylands, 5069 Ph (08) 88422781 Ph (08) 83666583Fax (08) 88423078 Fax (08) 83666528

callum@capri.net.au

DO others have interesting international connections that have been particularly helpful?

[Burbert]

Reading and research are key to marketing, however you must remember, that lying and cheating play a huge role in the industry.
Facts and figures are often skewed, by industry and governments, to manipulate and panic fram marketeers. Corruption is a big part of the overall economy. In other words, don't believe everything that you read, or are told by brokers, who also need cash flow, just before Xmas for example! Divide and conquer works when it comes to fooling framers into selling cheappppp, or a bit of flattery and stroking, used car sales could learn a lot from Angribusiness!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

Burbert,

Thanks for those helpful tips!

Which newsletters did they come from... so we know what NOT to read!

Do you actually pay someone to tell you this?

[mcfarms]

I agree Tom and we can certainly get Aussy info well. Where I struggle is getting info from the importing countries. India Pakistan etc. I can find snippets in news stories etc like this
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/015hdline.htm
But I still find Peas to be a tougher marketing game at times more so than other crops here.

[melvill]

mcfarms, I agree with your conundrum - just trying out my newest Conrad Black word.

A shortage of market information is a problem for any "special" crop or any crop without a public price discovery - futures market - mechanism. A public price discovery mechanism means that there are all kinds of participants, both producers and consumers, all of whom are gathering bits and pieces of information, relevant or not, from around the world. Unfortunately, most special crops, including durum, are too small to support a futures market, so they don't get the attention from market info gatherers that the major crops do.

That doesn't mean that there isn't market info out there, though. It just takes very skilled and informed analysts to gather it. The people that do that gathering and analysing aren't going to give it away free because they spend quite a bit of time on it.

Finally, with most special crops, there is such a small difference between too much, and low prices, and not enough and significantly higher prices.

My point is that I don't think that individual producers can be very good analyists of special crops markets. In addition to the lack of info, government policy decisions, that aren't widely available, can change things in a hurry.

Therefore, I think producers need to buy that detailed analysis, read it and then see if they agree with what they've read. No analyst, even including Charlie, is always right but another opinion acts as way to keep our thinking on track.

[crusher]

$7.10 spot, I sold another 20%.

[mcfarms]

7.30 offered here this morning, but crusher what did you base your marketing on??? It seemed high enough?? It seemed like a good enough price?? Or do you have market intelligence that indicated to you it was a good plateau?? Not being critical asking the q1uestion what prompted you to make this sale??? Last fall many here around me sold at 4 off the combine when I was hauling mine this spring at 7 they were a little cranky. I noticed more going into bins this fall here around me (LoL)


Should we be asking more marketing info from our pulse commissions??

[TOM4CWB]

MCFARMS,

What would folks in the Pulse Commissions know more than you would?

Pulse Canada is working to open up underdeveloped markets... yet high risk usually pays more if everything goes right... if it does not... will you get paid?

Do you deal in cash only... or let your guard down and extend credit?

The risk reward side of special crops leads to higher profits at times... but who can know when the market will turn?

It is very easy to sell into a rising market... the chain works well and everyone can just wait a week and take a little off the top...

Try it in a falling market!

MUCH to think about... getting paid is a big consideration, even more when prices are in the stratosphere!

What more would you like to see Pulse Commissions doing?

[crusher]

Market Intelligence

I based my decision on profit per acre. With peas, I can't get a deferred delivery price and I thought the price was decent, $7.00 being my target. This seasonal time period has historically been a good time to sell, along with April. I also need to dry my last 3,000 bushels of barley and needed the bin space around the dryer. Plus all markets are strong currently and I wanted to sell something. I can get premiums for other crops by deferring sales, not so with peas (at Finora). That's what I based my decision on. The sale was made a couple of weeks ago, maybe my buyer is paying $7.30 now, don't know. I'll hold the last bit for next April. I also didn't move any peas the last two years until this spring.

[mcfarms]

Tom
It's just that I've often wondered what more I can do to flesh out my abilities as a marketer of peas, I do feel there are gaps in information available and Lee I take it agrees. I also suspect those that post on here are internet savy enough to glean a decent amount of information from around the world. I'm not sure what APG can and or should be doing if anything. I'd like to see more market info on their website and perhaps a monthly market watch by someone in the know.

Really just asking if others feel the same way I do. I market consistantly in the top 25% or better of the market, but always want to be better.

[TOM4CWB]

MCFarms,

Thanks for the reply!

Crusher has much the same plan as I have... looks like you folks have this well worked out!

We can work on getting more good info... Stat has a link from APG site... www.pulse.ab.ca
Marketing
http://www.statpub.com/stat/statpea.html

[SASKFARMER3]

Information is King and So are Qualified people to get that information from.
Most Brokers saw a opportunity to make money and got into Grain Brokering a few years back, Most had no Idea.
Also Pi-- Poor information from Provincial Crop Reporters for Provincial reports. Sask Ag and Food has no Idea whats really going on in Rural Sask. And then their is Some manipulation.