Canola Disappearance Points to Potential Record

[errolanderson]

Hopalong . . . the U.S. economy is in for a rough ride in 2016. If the U.S. heads for recession, QE4 may be launched. The Fed may have to cut rates again after all-the-chest-thumping.

IMO, the U.S. dollar is now plateauing. Dallas Fed manufacturing data just released is now worse than 2009. Something has to give . . . and that something may be the U.S. dollar sometime in the 1st quarter.

This could have a domino impact on global markets from a modest recovery in crude oil, to Cdn dollar to the Euro to gold.

The spot Cdn dollar is quite oversold (IMO). A rebound would impact canola export demand. Also, China buys in spurts. They buy, buy, then stop, stop.
Canola is no exception. That is one reason why our carryout numbers are quite a bit higher the gov't projections.

Should China's stock markets go for another tumble, canola export demand will be impacted. Also, the massive fallout in global commodities has to be respected as an influence on demand.

It just not all roses for canola demand given the uncertainty in global economies. At some point, canola will break out of this comatose trading range.

[Oilking]

But yet canola is pushing resistance levels and looking to take the next leg higher

[tweety]

Its definitely going higher, sold a lot of it.

[Guest]

ajl, canola gets dried here every year ,never saw a problem ? what have you saw?

[hobbyfrmr]

Hedgehog, good observation.

[biglentil]

Errol I don't quite follow, a weaker USD would be bullish for all commodities including Canola oil. Also a weaker overal world economy may prove bullish for plant based fats which are an inexpensive substitute to animal based fat. People need a certain amount of fat, protein and carbs reguardless of the economic climate. Plant based oil, lentils/beans and wheat/rice/corn the staples of the third world diet. Animals are luxuries.

[farming101]

Well, maybe the US recovery isn't really a recovery at all but if every other nation's economy does worse will anyone be able to tell the difference?

Come the new year canola deliveries are going to have to slow down. If exports have been front loaded, maybe price won't head higher.
But if demand is there it could mean higher prices. The CAD has to stay low and producers have to slow down deliveries.
It seems likely the latest Canola production numbers are too high. There has been new bins go up, yes, but still where were all the bags and piles that showed up 2 years ago after the big crop. The crop seemed to get tucked away in the bin quite nicely. Who knows? Time will tell.
Average farm price is over 1 dollar higher than last year. Worthless pesos I know, but it could be worse.

"Somebody told us Wall street fell,
But we were so poor we couldn't tell..."

[errolanderson]

biglentil . . . you are right, in a normal economic environment a falling U.S. dollar is supportive toward commodities. But in this strained global environment , it signals a much larger problem than will impact all global markets . . . a pending U.S. recession.

IMO, a pullback in the U.S. dollar will not be enough to derail the current disinflationary and deflationary risks to global markets impacting buyer spending and pricing.

good question, hope this makes some sense . . . .

[farming101]

The penalty for early delivery is disappearing.

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