average pea prices

[wmoebis]

Got in a discussion at the local elevator the other day and the topic of sold pea price came up. The feeling was that up to 75% was sold under $7.oo.

Where as the pea contracts started out last spring at around 4.50/bus then spots went up to $11 or $12. (I'm not sure, quit watching sold mine way low). We were wondering what percent was sold at or above mid price. I know on this web site last spring most were talking about having 50% locked in at around the $5.50 mark.

Was the other 50% sold at top or is it still in the bin what happened to it? Mine all got sold at that $6.50 to $7.00 range.

[bucket]

I have feeling I know where you are going with this but I will bite.

I have sold my peas at every dollar increment since $6. I hit some of the $12 peas as well. My average gained 2-3 per bushel. No I didn't get the high for all my peas but I was happy with my strategy and I was not waiting for my final and interims. When I signed contracts I got them gone and got paid.

Could I have got more, sure, but I have payments. Here is the kicker - if the cwb would have put more money from the two interim/adjustment payments up front in sept - I could have held my peas longer. I will also note the federal government was to blame in that as well since they should have known better as to what the prices for our board grains were doing.

Long and short of it is this. I sign a contract on my peas and I am happy with the strategy I use based on the best info I have and I get paid in full.

[bgmb]

Surely you can do better than that Bucket

Use an EPO if you want to get paid in full for the grain you deliver.

I don't grow peas so can't comment on how I sold my peas.


Here's a better question?

how many people fixed priced their wheat lower than the wheat boards current pool

My guess is 90% of the guys yelling about how they can't take advantage of high prices in the USA did FPCs at 6-7 bucks.

If you wouldn`t have priced your contracts then you would have got a higher price simple as that.

[bucket]

Peas went from 4.5 to 12 - a spread of 7.5 per bushel. if you captured some of that and you got paid that is called marketing using your own info and judgement.

Durum in the same time period went from 6 to 28 - a spread of 22 per bushel. We pay a lot to have a market analyst team and did we capture anywhere near the same percentage of the spread. Not likely.

I like to compare durum and peas. Same area, close to same tonnage. If I can market my peas I think I could do the same with my durum.

[bucket]

bgmb

The epo is too expensive. On 10000 bushels of durum I would give away 10000 bucks to get 100% of my money. I work off the farm and my employer doesn't charge me with a fee to get my money.

[wmoebis]

No Bucket I wasn't going there.

I sold my first 2/3 for cash flow. Wished I had taken advance instead but had to sell rest for bin room. Snow was comming and still had truck and combine full. Wish I had bought bin instead. I never contracted any, all spot.

My interest is in, does one lock in at prices today or how does one know if he should wait it out or sell some over the year and hope for a reasonable average. I just wanted to know how everyone else faired after all said and done. We get a lot of advice for the future but past experience is usually best advise.

[bucket]

wmoebis

I apologize. My biggest problem with pricing into the new crop is that is so dry. I am watching the weather close this year. If we get moisture before seeding I will lock in some 9.50 peas if it is still available.

Other factors to consider are how many bins emptied out at some of these great prices and where does that leave extra seed for a few more acres.

There is no doubt a demand for peas and a bumper crop won't cure that demand. And I am uneasy that a bumper crop can be produced. When was the last time new crop pea prices were out so early. Someone is buying acres for a reason.

[TOM4CWB]

bgmb,

The CWB has made the claim for years... that the pool is NOT connected to the Producer Pricing Options.

As we all know... this is false.

The PRO is absolutely connected to the FPC Basis... it could not have been clearer than what Charlie showed us from the Saskatoon Production charts.

The CWB has changed the rules on PPO's... to cross subsidise the pool accounts. Yet the claim is STILL that there is NO COnnection (to the pool) and we have 'Market Choice' on CWB grains.

Lets get innovative here. What about a basis pool or an option of a flat price market driven product... using the port of destination as the basis point?

It happens in peas all the time... why not wheat?

[bgmb]

I agree Tom the basis is not the same as the ones in the open market.

Its actually funny they have quit saying the basis has nothing to do with the pool. At a recent meeting I attended a market analyst came right out and said the basis for the FPC is not a basis like in the open market it is a basis to the pool.

Protect the pool at all cost right!

My basic point above was that we all had the opportunity to sell our wheat for very high prices using the fpc in fact you could have sold every bushel at feb futures prices if you wanted to.

No its not like an open market. But the open market isn't exactly the greatest thing these days either. Futures are not much good if everyone is afraid to use them for what they were intended for, Hedging. And what about 80-100 canola basis maybe we should be looking at what thats costing us.

[bgmb]

Bucket,

Not trying to mock anyone, just trying to look at both sides of things a bit.

Good point on the topic of the risks of forward pricing.

I agree and especially if you are pricing in a crop where your region produces a high percentage of the world trade (durum and peas in your case) if your area is dry and has a poor crop prices go through the roof. The guy who priced low and can't fill his contract is.... not good!

Interesting that the cash plus contracts and other malt contracts being offered by gain companies have act of god clauses.