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So History Repeats Itself - Gerald Pilger Conutry Guide

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    So History Repeats Itself - Gerald Pilger Conutry Guide

    https://static.agcanada.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/CGW170314.pdf

    Consider for a moment what Cana-
    dian agriculture would look like
    today if farmers had never made
    the switch from horse power to
    tractor power. It isn’t such an absurd idea
    if you understand why farmers here actu-
    ally resisted mechanization when it first
    appeared roughly a century ago.
    An interesting read is the text of the
    speech called “An Economic Comparison of
    the Horse Vs. Motor” that H.L. Hare of the
    University of British Columbia, gave to the
    North Western Veterinary Association in
    the early 1920s. His paper was subsequently
    published in the
    Canadian Veterinary Record
    (Volume 4, No. 4, 1923).
    Hare presented case after case from right
    across Canada showing that horses were
    more economically efficient than tractors
    and trucks. For example, he told of the expe-
    rience of C.S. Noble of Alberta who in 1918
    and 1919 used both trucks and horses to
    haul grain 20 to 30 miles from the 30,000-
    acre ranch he was managing to the nearest
    grain elevators.
    Hare wrote: “... even on this long haul,
    Mr. Noble states that freighting can be done
    more economically with horses.”
    Hare backed up the individual cases with
    statements from revered agricultural educa-
    tional institutions such as the Ontario Agri-
    cultural College, which concluded: “Farm
    tractors have been used with some degree of
    success, but speaking generally they have not
    been a success with the average farmer... ”
    Then Hare presented studies from the
    U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Pur-
    due Agricultural Experimental Station, and
    the Dominion Experimental Farm at Prince
    Edward Island. All showed the cost per acre
    of operating a tractor was higher than doing
    comparable work with horses.
    Finally, Hare presented evidence that
    after their initial tractor purchases, many
    farmers soon went back to horses.
    Hare concluded, “Greater production
    was achieved but at the expense of econ-
    omy. Now that the war is over, efficiency and
    economy are the slogans and we find that
    horses are fast coming back to their field.”
    So why did farmers make the switch to
    the tractor?
    While some farmers chose to become
    early adopters of mechanization, most
    North American and European farmers
    were, instead, pushed into the switch.
    The First World War had drained farms
    of both horses and manpower, and farmers
    were forced to find alternative crop produc-
    tion methods.
    This also explains why the number of
    tractors and trucks sold to farmers actually
    declined following the war, when govern-
    ment demand for horses dropped off and
    soldiers returned to farms and rural com-
    munities.
    Why history repeats
    Today farmers are facing a similar scenario.
    Society is demanding a cleaner, greener
    world, and modern agriculture is again
    caught in the middle.
    It is irrelevant whether you as an indi-
    vidual believe in climate change or the need
    to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Soci-
    ety as a whole does, and it is taking action
    to reduce man’s carbon footprint globally.
    Modern agriculture will have to get on
    board whether we like it or not.
    Most Canadian farmers simply cannot
    understand society’s obsession with reduc-
    ing fossil fuel use. We live in a relatively pris-
    tine environment, and if we travel at all, it
    is likely to be to an even cleaner, greener
    place like the mountains, northern lakes, or
    first-class resorts in Mexico, Hawaii or the
    Caribbean.
    However, those postcard-perfect places
    are not at all like the world that most of the
    global population resides in.
    If you travel to India or China or any
    major city in the world, you’ll experience
    the pollution they live with. In coastal cities
    worldwide, as well, you will see first-hand
    the impact of rising ocean levels. Travel to
    many equatorial regions and you will see the
    effect of prolonged drought in the form of
    dry lake beds and parched soils.
    Want to experience the Arctic? No prob-
    lem; you can even take a cruise ship through
    the Northwest Passage where just a genera-
    tion ago no ships could sail.
    Now, too, there is an overwhelming con-
    sensus among scientists that man is contrib-
    uting to these environmental and climate
    change issues.
    This is the evidence that is leading societ-
    ies worldwide to adopt measures designed
    to reduce man’s footprint; from putting a
    price on carbon to restricting the use of
    some energy sources like coal and moving
    to renewable energy sources like wind, water
    and solar generation.
    t
    h
    e s
    W
    i
    tch to solar
    Without question, the energy source with
    the greatest potential at this time is solar. We
    now have the technology to efficiently col-
    lect solar power, and in most areas the grid is
    already in place to distribute power.
    But, like our forefathers balking at the
    use of tractors, the resistance to solar is huge,
    Go into any coffee shop and you’ll hear
    complaints about the carbon tax and how
    solar power could never work in the frozen
    north where we live. You will hear how solar
    is way too expensive and will never be com-
    petitive with fossil fuels, even if it could be
    generated here.
    Farmers complain about the potential
    loss of farmland for all the solar panels that
    would be needed. And you will hear over
    and over again that the politicians who
    want to shut down the oil sands are basically
    destroying the economy of Canada simply to
    appease environmentalists and to clean up
    the problems of the third world.
    But are these doomsday claims accurate?
    Just 40 years ago, the United Arab Emir-
    ates was a sparsely populated, nomadic des-
    ert. Now, it is a globally recognized urban
    paradise, primarily funded by the sale of oil
    and natural gas.
    But rather than defending the use of the
    fossil fuels that are the backbone of their
    economy and that power the mega cities of
    Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and that even desali-
    nates the sea water needed for the greening
    of the desert, the UAE is at the forefront of
    solar power generation.
    Dubai Clean Energy Strategy’s goal is
    that seven per cent of Dubai’s energy will
    come from solar power by 2020, 25 per cent
    by 2030 and 75 per cent by 2050. Rather
    than continuing to base their economies on
    a finite resource, they see the future in solar
    power generation.

    #2
    Continued

    Nor is solar nearly as unaffordable as we
    are being led to believe. The Earth Policy
    Institute chart shows the price of a solar
    panel per watt of power generated has
    declined from US$101.05 in 1975 to US$0.61
    in 2015. As a result we have seen solar panel
    generation go from just two megawatts to
    64,892 megawatts over the same 40-year
    period. And there is no indication either
    trend will slow or stop.
    In September 2016, Bloomberg.com
    reported that government-owned Abu
    Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority
    received a record-low bid of US$2.42 cents
    a kilowatt-hour for power from a planned
    facility in the Persian Gulf sheikhdom. This
    bid was for construction and operation of a
    350-megawatt solar plant.
    Bloomberg noted this is cheaper than the
    $2.91/kWh bid made last August in Chile for
    a solar power plant, or the $2.99/kWh bid
    for a Dubai solar plant made in May 2016. It
    went on to point out that these bids reflect a
    drop of 70 per cent in just the last five years.
    Some farmers may argue that solar works
    in the UAE because it is much farther south
    and it is in a hot, dry desert location. But
    such a location is not a requirement for solar
    generation.
    Wikipedia lists the installed PV solar
    generation by country as of 2015 and the
    country with the highest solar electrical
    generation is actually China (43,530 MW),
    followed by Germany (39,700 MW), Japan
    (34,410 MW), United States (25,620MW),
    Italy (18,920 MW), United Kingdom (8,780
    MW), France (6,580 MW), and Spain (5,400
    MW).
    The claims about solar panels displacing
    farmland are also misleading. Solar panels
    can be incorporated into existing structures
    or be built on non-farmland.
    Dr. Mark Jacobson, professor of civil and
    environmental engineering at Stanford was
    lead author of a 2015 paper entitled “100%
    clean and renewable wind, water, and sun-
    light (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for
    the 50 United States.” This paper presents a
    plan for converting the electricity, transpor-
    tation, heating/cooling, and industry energy
    requirements for every U.S. state to 80 per
    cent renewables by 2030 and 100 per cent
    by 2050. The plan calls for almost half of the
    energy to be solar, and it says solar collec-
    tors would cover less than 0.42 per cent of
    the U.S.
    Compare that land requirement to the
    massive acreage currently dedicated to bio-
    fuel production. Over 40 per cent of the
    corn crop is used to produce ethanol. And
    even then, says Dr. Roland Geyer of the Bren
    School of Environmental Science and Man-
    agement in Santa Barbara, if the entire corn
    crop would have been converted to ethanol
    in 2009, it would have met a mere 17 per
    cent of the U.S. gasoline needs.
    To be fair, the dry distillers grain that
    remains after ethanol is produced can be
    used in feed rations. But even after deduct-
    ing an area amount equivalent to the feed
    value of DDGs, still 25 per cent of corn acres
    would be taken for fuel production. And
    don’t forget, there are significant energy
    inputs required for corn ethanol production
    including crop inputs, equipment, fuel, dis-
    tilling, storage, and transportation.
    According to Geyer: “Solar power gen-
    eration is ‘hands down’ more efficient than
    photosynthesis.” He has compared photovol-
    taic electrical generation with biofuel pro-
    duction and found “even the most land-use
    efficient biomass-based pathway (i.e. switch-
    grass bioelectricity in U.S. counties with
    hypothetical crop yields of over 24 tonnes/
    ha) requires 29 times more land than the
    PV-based alternative in the same locations.”
    Geyer also notes that PV solar produces
    usable energy throughout the year, whereas
    you only get one harvest a year of corn for
    ethanol.
    The one hurdle that must be overcome
    for solar power to be successful in a north-
    ern country like Canada is storage of energy
    for use when the sun is not shining. Our
    long winter nights magnify this problem.
    But our long summer days make solar gen-
    eration even more viable if power can be
    stored.And science is working on this. Just last
    fall it was announced ethanol could be cre-
    ated from CO2. Such a process could solve
    energy storage problems and also reduce
    the greenhouse gas worries. What was not
    detailed was how much energy is required
    to convert CO2 to ethanol. Yet, if we have
    excess power generation from solar during
    the day, would it be economically feasible to
    convert CO2 to ethanol to provide fuel for
    power generation at night?
    Or what about simply pumping water up
    behind a dam using solar-powered pumps
    when the sun is shining, and relying on
    hydroelectric generation from that stored
    water at nights.
    Regardless, society’s demands for clean
    energy will disrupt farming as we know it.
    Not only will we have to consider new
    energy sources, but even crop choices will
    change. Millions of acres of oats, grass, and
    other feeds that were consumed by draft
    animals had to change to other crops when
    tractors and trucks replaced horses. The
    same thing will happen to the millions of
    acres of corn wheat and soybeans that are
    now utilized as biofuels.
    The one thing we cannot do is simply
    sit back and watch as the rest of the world
    switches away from fossil fuels, or we will
    end up a third-world producer just like the
    countries that continue to rely on human
    and bullock power today.
    Simply blaming our current govern-
    ments will not change this.
    CG
    BUSINESS
    56
    MARCH 14, 2017 / COUNTRY-GUIDE.CA

    Comment


      #3
      Chucky you are still trying to convince everyone but it is just talk. Like I said before action says so much more so get your solar panels up and running and get some draft horses then invite us all over and show us how good it all works!

      Comment


        #4
        One question Chuck2, if you include the cost of the natural gas power plant that is required to produce power when the sun doesn't shine, what is the real cost of solar?

        Comment


          #5
          Nice try chuck but I won't argue with a fool.

          Comment


            #6
            I would think hydro would be a much more reliable source and you could control the output somewhat. If they can use tidal power why couldn't they do that all down a river to the ocean. If only the tree huggers could see that....

            Comment


              #7
              Last paragraph. The rest of the world is switching away from fossil fuel? Now that's laughable.

              Comment


                #8
                Chucky the climate change shake down is just about run its course. Most countries are going broke who followed the hocus locus focus bullshit.

                Canada is at least 10 years behind hopefully someone with a brain will figure it out before we fall for the bullshit.

                Diesel gas water electricity dams natural gas coal uranium. Burn baby burn.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Gotta wonder......I realize solar and wind energy sources would be cleanest.....but has anyone been keeping track of the radioactivity, and the spread there of, of the Pacific ocean after the Fukushima disaster? All that being said, maybe they should have continued along with carbon capture and sequestration and refining the technology used in the coal fired plants.

                  Weigh the pros and cons of each and go from there. Forcing unproven unreliable at the expense of other more dependable sources....

                  I'm not against alternative energy sources and when they become reliable and affordable sources they will displace a portion of the old standbys. Looks like there may always be a need for some petro based fuels.

                  How long before they have dependable electric tractors/highway tractors/passenger vehicles?....onboard diesel generators driving electric wheel motors....wasn't Agco doing some research with this on a sprayer or tractor?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Chuck,Cluck2,If your "Clucky" and are trying to : dazzle us with your brilliance,and baffle us with your bullshit. I think you have the old quote mixed up. Personally I think your "ship",forgot to return for you.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      "but has anyone been keeping track of the radioactivity, and the spread there of, of the Pacific ocean after the Fukushima disaster?"

                      I would BET that is all covered up so as NOT to alarm the masses. We could ALL be "****ashemad" by now and don't know it.

                      "How long before they have dependable electric tractors/highway tractors/passenger vehicles?...."

                      Where the hell would all that electricity come from? Many times today's consumption... big f*cking joke.
                      Last edited by fjlip; Mar 19, 2017, 17:02.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Fj...onboard diesel generator driving electric motors at each wheel. Not electric car style stuff with batteries that needs to be plugged in. I have no idea about the engineering hurdles with torque, etc. How much diesel would it require compared to tradional tractors? I don't know.... Safety?.....

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Chuck, you buffoon, I was going to say, "I hope your paste finger gets stuck in your nose", but I'll control myself.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Good analogy, but what is not mentioned. Once tractor technology improved, and the concept proved itself, farmers ALL switched over on their own accord. No government intervention or punitive taxes on horses. Just like will happen this time around. When the technology is better than what it is replacing, with or without government meddling.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Christ if anyone had to go back to horses for farming everyone would ****ing starve. Consider in those days 25% of your acres needed to be allocated to feeding the bloody things. Not to mention how many out of shape farmers would have a coronary from harnessing and hooking a five up on the sulky plow. My experience driving horses I might make out okay. Renewables will have their place as well as non renewables in the future. However, if and when we exhaust the last of our coal and petroleum reserves which I don't think I'll see it, mankind will cull itself out. Like Einstein said the fourth war won't be fought with guns and bombs but sticks and fists.

                              Comment

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