Yellow Peas

[dave4441]

In a lot of ways I'm not surprised at this. From my understanding that a lot of my peas over the past 10 -15 years have gone to India. Remember last year the Stem nematode issue in the news? From my understanding that the Indian gov't has had a long history of incursions into the market place in India. As it was explained to me , food security is paramount to the country and civil unrest is greatly feared. As Dave said there is an oversupply in pulses in India right now. Until they get consumed or domestic prices move up substantially I don't think India is going be a viable market.
Here is a link to a article of a man that I follow in India. Met him in Saskatoon at Pulse Days years ago. This is his take about what we are seeing now. He wrote this in the beginning of Oct.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/yellow-peas-need-procurement-rampup-not-an-import-levy-which-may-boomerang/article9889298.ece

Good article but i think it misses a bit what the government achieves with the levy. It is pushing up domestic prices so they don't have to pay the growers subsidies and it may stop the bankruptcies of the indian importers. When these markets continue to go down over time, the importers, who are always long, pay the price. This could be a good long term thing. It reduces the amount of tax money the govt has to pay to local farmers and the consumers pay the farmer instead. It raised the value of the domestic stock by 50% overnight.

But in 12-24 months prices could explode higher on them depending on their production. It was only a couple years ago they were trying to reduce prices for consumers. They achieved that in spades and now trying to do the opposite.

[the big wheel]

When people that buy from us gauge the people they sell to we pay the price again that's what's happening.

[the big wheel]

entil farmers

Posted Nov. 7th, 2017 by CNS Canada
No Comments
By Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, November 7 (CNS) – Agriculture experts in Pakistan have told farmers in the country they should start seeding lentils immediately. A spokesman for the country’s agriculture department says producers should complete the work by November 15 in order to maximize yields. The advice comes just as the Pakistani government informed its national assembly that the country is facing a water crisis. Some estimates say there could be a 20 percent water shortage during the Rabi season.
A deadly frost in southeastern Australia is expected to damage pulse yields. A report from Stockjournal.com says the losses could run up to 30 percent in pulse crops across the Wimmera Plains. Lentils and chickpeas are expected to be the worst hit. The frost was recorded on November 3.
Increased demand from domestic retailers has hiked pulse prices in central and northern India. Restrictions in arrivals from certain producing belts of the country was a contributing factor to the spike in demand, according to

[jamesb]

In a lot of ways I'm not surprised at this. From my understanding that a lot of my peas over the past 10 -15 years have gone to India. Remember last year the Stem nematode issue in the news? From my understanding that the Indian gov't has had a long history of incursions into the market place in India. As it was explained to me , food security is paramount to the country and civil unrest is greatly feared. As Dave said there is an oversupply in pulses in India right now. Until they get consumed or domestic prices move up substantially I don't think India is going be a viable market.
Here is a link to a article of a man that I follow in India. Met him in Saskatoon at Pulse Days years ago. This is his take about what we are seeing now. He wrote this in the beginning of Oct.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/yellow-peas-need-procurement-rampup-not-an-import-levy-which-may-boomerang/article9889298.ece

[bucket]

I thought CETA was the cure?

[Klause]

Economics 101: the cure for high prices is high prices.

We are in oversupply, more so India is in oversupply.

the most damaging issue with the imposition of this import duty is it appears to be affective IMMEDIATELY, which means anything enroute or in a contract is subject to the import duty on arrival: there is not even a small window of tolerance for contracts executed, and although trade has been reduced there are still a lot of tonnes.

This is a clear case for the WTO as indeed the impact is global. Massive losses will be incurred.

It is hard to understand why a Nation would take such a route, and the clear lobby is for a minimum of a 60 day implementation time to allow all contacts to clear: the Dec 31 fumigation deadline was looming at any rate, and for Canada it still is.

With massive plantings, with good production the issue of oversupply from Indian self sufficiency will continue. As an FYI India has had a goal of self sufficiency for many years, one which I am not sure we believed would happen but it has. Like the oil oversupply, it may be a new paradigm.

It's actually really easy to understand.


The problem is nobody from the pulse associations has ever lived in a third world country.


India has a major problem with farmers committing suicide because of losses high loan repayments etc. They don't have FDMS and bankruptcy laws like we do... They recently had elections and the new leadership campaigned on better lives for farmers. Stable income. And a guaranteed minimum income for producers there.


The liability of this new program is huge... So hy cutting off trade the local prices immediately jumped...


Canadian trade organizations have a major arrogance problem with thinking countries will never attain self sufficiency and other countries will never become export competitors...

India invests incredible sums in their agriculture industry trying to build it out... This is the fruit of their labour... And investment.

Part of the reason we are in this mess... Plus you can't go overseas and act like the big dog in their country when you're the one trying to get access to their market....



As I said in a few months our trade groups will be just as surprised to find out we've been locked out of European wheat markets...

[farmaholic]

I'm hoping greens can maintain some value. ......some go into the petfood market....pet owners don't seem to care what things cost when it comes to Fido.

[Hamloc]

Next step. How is everybody now planning to market their peas? I talked to Viterra and Pioneer yesterday. No price not interested. I heard that Patterson had a price of $5.40 a bushel. So for those of us with peas what is the plan? Personally, I may have jumped the gun sold them to a local pig farmer yesterday while he still had future space.

One funny note, I remember discussing whether I was going to grow Faba beans or peas last spring. I told my neighbour I wasn't really interested in the faba market because it was now basically only a feed market, in my opinion now peas won't be much better. So what is the plan?

[farmaholic]

India is typically a large part of green pea demand. Scratch my previous somewhat bullish 2017 crop thoughts on green peas

Shit.....even if I deal with a local value added processor. ....low tide will ground some ships. Even if they aren't India bound I can't see them paying up.

I wonder what the S/U is on green peas....are they even calculated separate from yellows. Here in the Slum of the Ghetto our yields weren't very good, 26-28 bu/ac. I would need a price of about $20/bu to equal last year's gross returns...can't see it happening (sarc).

[westernvicki]

And with lower global demand the root rot issues is less of problem, as longer rotations will help, and lower prices could enable long rotations. Not a fix but a possible solution.

Sure hope club root stays away!